COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 23, 2026 · model inputs through September 22, 2026 · latest included poll: September 16, 2026

Maine Senate Forecast

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The forecast was recalculated with polling inputs through September 22. The projected margin moved D+2.57 → D+2.54 (R +0.02 points). The rating remains Tilt D. The county map is recalibrated to the September 22 statewide estimate; county baselines and geometry are retained.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+2.54
Rating
Tilt D
Polling average
D+2.55
Fundamentals
D+5.75
Matchup
Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

13 polls included in the workbook average. Newest first; latest included field date: September 16, 2026.

Polling average
D+2.55

Field dates Pollster Sample Results Model treatment
2026-09-16–2026-09-16Quantus Insights— LVD Troy Jackson 46% · R Susan Collins 47%Included in model
2026-09-11–2026-09-11Rasmussen Reports— LVD Troy Jackson 46% · R Susan Collins 45%Included in model
2026-09-10–2026-09-10YouGov— LVD Troy Jackson 48% · R Susan Collins 44%Included in model
2026-08-31–2026-09-06CNN843 LVD Troy Jackson 48% · R Susan Collins 45% · O Other 7%Included in model
August 29, 2026Abacus Data300 LVD Troy Jackson 52% · R Susan Collins 43% · O Other 5%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 6–August 10, 2026Fox News1000 RVD Troy Jackson 48% · R Susan Collins 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded July 27–August 1, 2026Hart Research Associates802 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
July 21, 2026UNH1178 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded July 7–July 8, 2026Z to A Research988 LVD Troy Jackson 47% · R Susan Collins 48%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded June 19–June 26, 2026New York Times / Siena608 LVD Platner 49% · R Susan Collins 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded June 9–June 11, 2026Quantus870 LVD Platner 46% · R Susan Collins 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded June 9–June 11, 2026Wick1008 LVD Platner 48% · R Susan Collins 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded June 5–June 8, 2026Tavern1642 LVD Platner 51% · R Susan Collins 49%Included in the Senate polling average.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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