COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne
Final forecast · Nov. 3

Updated November 3, 2026 · model inputs through November 3, 2026

Maine Senate Forecast

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Senator Susan Collins is seeking another term against Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate. Collins has built a career on winning voters who do not always vote Republican elsewhere; Jackson’s challenge is to turn Maine’s Democratic lean into a Senate majority.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+2.56
Rating
Tilt D
Polling average
D+2.82
Fundamentals
D+6.16
Matchup
Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins

FORECAST HISTORY

Chance of winning over time

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Published model margins by release date.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Included surveys, newest first.

Polling average
D+2.82

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Oct 27–Nov 1, 2026Survey 1601,322 LVD Troy Jackson 50% · R Susan Collins 47%
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 1, 2026Poll Vault/Emerson600 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 51%
Fielded Oct 27–Nov 1, 2026NY Times/Siena714 LVD Troy Jackson 51% · R Susan Collins 45%
Fielded Oct 28–Nov 1, 2026AtlasIntel967 LVD Troy Jackson 53% · R Susan Collins 44%
Fielded Oct 27–Oct 31, 2026UNH1,654 LVD Troy Jackson 54% · R Susan Collins 45% · O Other 1%
Fielded Oct 26–Oct 29, 2026YouGov1,503 LVD Troy Jackson 52% · R Susan Collins 47%
Fielded Oct 20–Oct 26, 2026CNN/SSRS783 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 45%
Fielded Oct 22–Oct 25, 2026MaristLV · size n/aD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 47%
Fielded Oct 21–Oct 23, 2026Trafalgar Group1,077 LVD Troy Jackson 47% · R Susan Collins 47% · O Other 6%
Fielded Oct 16–Oct 20, 2026FOX NewsLV · size n/aD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 49% · O Other 2%
Fielded Oct 13–Oct 14, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 47%
Fielded Oct 8–Oct 11, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 47%
Fielded Oct 5–Oct 8, 2026Rasmussen Reports804 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 47%
Fielded Sep 30–Oct 5, 2026Washington Post / Schar School800 LVD Troy Jackson 50% · R Susan Collins 46%
Fielded Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026Marist1,505 RVD Troy Jackson 51% · R Susan Collins 47% · O Other 2%
Fielded Sep 29–Oct 1, 2026Trafalgar Group1,091 LVD Troy Jackson 46% · R Susan Collins 46% · O Other 8%
Fielded Sep 23–Oct 1, 2026CBS News1,114 RVD Troy Jackson 50% · R Susan Collins 50% · O Other 0%
Fielded Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026co/efficient1,240 LVD Troy Jackson 46% · R Susan Collins 48% · O Other 6%
Fielded Sep 25–Sep 29, 2026MPRC684 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 47% · O Other 4%
Fielded Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Troy Jackson 46% · R Susan Collins 46% · O Other 8%
Fielded Sep 15–Sep 22, 2026New York Times / Siena619 LVD Troy Jackson 46% · R Susan Collins 49% · O Other 5%
Fielded Sep 20–Sep 22, 2026Fabrizio/Anzalone982 LVD Troy Jackson 50% · R Susan Collins 47% · O Other 3%
Fielded Sep 16, 2026Quantus InsightsLV · size n/aD Troy Jackson 46% · R Susan Collins 47%
Fielded Aug 28–Sep 14, 2026University of Massachusetts Lowell650 LVD Troy Jackson 48% · R Susan Collins 43% · O Other 9%
Fielded Sep 11, 2026Rasmussen ReportsLV · size n/aD Troy Jackson 46% · R Susan Collins 45%
Fielded Sep 10, 2026YouGovLV · size n/aD Troy Jackson 48% · R Susan Collins 44%
Fielded Aug 31–Sep 6, 2026CNN843 LVD Troy Jackson 48% · R Susan Collins 45% · O Other 7%
Fielded Aug 29, 2026Abacus Data300 LVD Troy Jackson 52% · R Susan Collins 43% · O Other 5%
Fielded Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026Fox News1,000 RVD Troy Jackson 48% · R Susan Collins 46%
Fielded Jul 27–Aug 1, 2026Hart Research Associates802 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 45%
Fielded Jul 21, 2026UNH1,178 LVD Troy Jackson 49% · R Susan Collins 46%
Fielded Jul 7–Jul 8, 2026Z to A Research988 LVD Troy Jackson 47% · R Susan Collins 48%
Fielded Jun 19–Jun 26, 2026New York Times / Siena608 LVD Platner 49% · R Susan Collins 47%
Fielded Jun 9–Jun 11, 2026Wick1,008 LVD Platner 48% · R Susan Collins 45%
Fielded Jun 9–Jun 11, 2026Quantus870 LVD Platner 46% · R Susan Collins 45%
Fielded Jun 5–Jun 8, 2026Tavern1,642 LVD Platner 51% · R Susan Collins 49%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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