Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Maine House Forecast
‹ See all House racesMaine elects 2 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 0 as favoring Republicans and 1 as a toss-up.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 2 of 2 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 2
- Toss-ups
- 1
- Not rated Solid
- 1
- Districts with polls
- 2 of 2
- Closest district
- ME-02 D+1.4
District map
Maine congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
All races
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
ME-02 · Open
Maine's 2nd District
Dunlap 58.2% · LePage 41.8% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+1.4
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- D+2.6
- Fundamentals
- D+3.9
- Matchup
- Matt Dunlap vs. Paul LePage
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 60.9%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+9.1
- Relative district lean
- R+8.5
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- None
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+0.2
- Full fundamentals
- D+3.9
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±7.1 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Polling inputs
District polls
10 included surveys across 2 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026 | ME-02 | Tulchin Research | 500.0 LV | D 50.0% · R 46.0% |
| Sep 27–Sep 30, 2026 | ME-02 | Tulchin Research | 500.0 LV | D 50.0% · R 48.0% |
| Sep 17–Sep 21, 2026 | ME-02 | University of New Hampshire | 622.0 LV | D 51.0% · R 45.0% |
| Sep 17–Sep 21, 2026 | ME-01 | University of New Hampshire | 657.0 LV | D 57.0% · R 35.0% |
| Sep 8–Sep 12, 2026 | ME-02 | Impact Research | 500.0 LV | D 49.0% · R 49.0% |
| Aug 11–Aug 13, 2026 | ME-02 | DCCC Analytics | 621.0 LV | D 48.0% · R 49.0% |
| Jul 11–Jul 16, 2026 | ME-02 | Tulchin Research | 600.0 LV | D 49.0% · R 48.0% |
| Apr 26–Apr 28, 2026 | ME-02 | co/efficient | 918.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 50.0% |
| Feb 12–Feb 16, 2026 | ME-02 | UNH | 522.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 47.0% |
| Jun 4–Jun 10, 2025 | ME-02 | Mellman Group (D) | 400.0 LV | D 37.0% · R 47.0% |