COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 23, 2026 · model inputs through September 22, 2026 · latest included poll: September 20, 2026

Michigan Senate Forecast

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The forecast was recalculated with polling inputs through September 22. The projected margin moved D+3.33 → D+3.32 (R +0.01 points). The rating remains Tilt D. The county map is recalibrated to the September 22 statewide estimate; county baselines and geometry are retained.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+3.32
Rating
Tilt D
Polling average
D+2.44
Fundamentals
D+6.03
Matchup
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

18 polls included in the workbook average. Newest first; latest included field date: September 20, 2026.

Polling average
D+2.44

Field dates Pollster Sample Results Model treatment
Sep 16–20, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46.8% · R Mike Rogers 39.6% · O Minor candidates / undecided / refused 13.6%Included in the Senate polling average.
2026-09-17–2026-09-17Emerson— LVD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 46%Included in model
2026-09-17–2026-09-17Washington Post— LVD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 45%Included in model
2026-09-10–2026-09-10Trafalgar Group*— LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46% · R Mike Rogers 45%Included in model
2026-08-31–2026-09-06CNN843 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 44% · O Other 9%Included in model
2026-08-31–2026-09-03Detroit News/Glengariff600 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 44% · R Mike Rogers 46% · O Other 10%Included in model
August 29, 2026Abacus Data300 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 49% · R Mike Rogers 45% · O Other 6%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 22–August 28, 2026EPIC-MRA600 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 43%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 10–August 20, 2026MSU IPPSR/OSR (YouGov panel)779 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 50% · R Mike Rogers 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 11–August 17, 2026Susquehanna800 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46% · R Mike Rogers 39%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 9–August 11, 2026Fabrizio/Anzalone877 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 6–August 10, 2026FOX News1006 RVD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 51%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 6–August 10, 2026TIPP1528 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 42%Included in the Senate polling average.
July 31, 2026Mitchell Research672 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
July 1, 2026Quantus Insights947 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 44%Included in the Senate polling average.
June 17, 2026Zenith Research602 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 42%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded May 20–May 28, 2026TIPP1154 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 43% · R Mike Rogers 42%Included in the Senate polling average.
May 14, 2026Mitchell Research607 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 41% · R Mike Rogers 42%Included in the Senate polling average.
Excluded polls
Field datesPollsterSampleResultsReason
Fielded July 24–July 31, 2026EPIC-MRA600 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 43% · R Mike Rogers 46%EXCLUDED
July 28, 2026Glengariff Group600 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 39% · R Mike Rogers 49%Missing source URL • EXCLUDED

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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