COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne
Final forecast · Nov. 3

Updated November 3, 2026 · model inputs through November 3, 2026

Michigan Senate Forecast

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Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, is challenging former Representative Mike Rogers. Michigan remains a close state with a strong labor tradition, and both candidates are making a case to voters who have recently swung between parties.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+4.84
Rating
Lean D
Polling average
D+4.47
Fundamentals
D+6.44
Matchup
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers

FORECAST HISTORY

Chance of winning over time

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Published model margins by release date.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Included surveys, newest first.

Polling average
D+4.47

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 2, 2026John Zogby Strategies1,001 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 51% · R Mike Rogers 49%
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 1, 2026Trafalgar Group1,087 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 47.1% · R Mike Rogers 45.9% · O Other 2.1%
Fielded Oct 30–Nov 1, 2026Research Co.450 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 46%
Fielded Oct 23–Nov 1, 2026NY Times/Siena1,011 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 53% · R Mike Rogers 42% · O Other 5%
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 1, 2026Emerson College500 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 51% · R Mike Rogers 45%
Fielded Oct 30–Nov 1, 2026Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)510 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 51% · R Mike Rogers 41%
Fielded Oct 28–Nov 1, 2026AtlasIntel1,316 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 54% · R Mike Rogers 46%
Fielded Oct 26–Oct 29, 2026YouGov2,093 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 51% · R Mike Rogers 47%
Fielded Oct 28–Oct 29, 2026Rasmussen Reports745 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 49% · R Mike Rogers 44% · O Other 3%
Fielded Oct 24–Oct 28, 2026Upswing Research505 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 50% · R Mike Rogers 45%
Fielded Oct 26–Oct 27, 2026Mitchell Research636 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 51% · R Mike Rogers 44%
Fielded Oct 20–Oct 27, 2026CNN/SSRS768 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 49% · R Mike Rogers 42%
Fielded Oct 20–Oct 23, 2026RedBox Research (D)2,696 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 48.9% · R Mike Rogers 44% · O Other 7.1%
Fielded Oct 8–Oct 23, 2026MSU/Verasight1,383 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 51.4% · R Mike Rogers 42.2%
Fielded Oct 19–Oct 22, 2026Detroit News/Glengariff600 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 51% · R Mike Rogers 45%
Fielded Oct 21–Oct 22, 2026InsiderAdvantageLV · size n/aD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 46% · O Other 7%
Fielded Oct 2–Oct 19, 2026MSU IPPSR/OSR (YouGov panel)836 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 45.5% · O Other 6.5%
Fielded Oct 15–Oct 18, 2026MaristLV · size n/aD Abdul El-Sayed 50% · R Mike Rogers 48% · O Other 1%
Fielded Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026Rasmussen Reports798 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46% · R Mike Rogers 44% · O Other 5%
Fielded Oct 9–Oct 10, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 46% · O Other 1%
Fielded Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026Quantus Insights762 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 47.6% · R Mike Rogers 46.5% · O Other 5.9%
Fielded Sep 22–Oct 4, 2026YouGov3,949 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 49% · R Mike Rogers 48%
Fielded Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026Z to A Research (D)483 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 49% · R Mike Rogers 42%
Fielded Oct 1, 2026Mitchell Research682 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46% · R Mike Rogers 41% · O Other 13%
Fielded Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026Trafalgar Group1,085 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 45% · O Other 8%
Fielded Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026FOX News1,028 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 50% · R Mike Rogers 49% · O Other 1%
Fielded Sep 24–Sep 27, 2026Marist1,235 RVD Abdul El-Sayed 51% · R Mike Rogers 44% · O Other 5%
Fielded Sep 22–Sep 24, 2026Big Data Poll678 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46.7% · R Mike Rogers 42.1% · O Other 11.2%
Fielded Sep 21–Sep 23, 2026co/efficient843 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 45% · O Other 10%
Fielded Sep 22, 2026Rasmussen Reports1,099 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 44% · O Other 9%
Fielded Sep 15–Sep 22, 2026New York Times / Siena605 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 49% · R Mike Rogers 44% · O Other 7%
Fielded Sep 18–Sep 21, 2026Cygnal/Beacon Research600 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 40% · O Other 15%
Fielded Sep 16–Sep 20, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46.8% · R Mike Rogers 39.6% · O Other 13.6%
Fielded Sep 17, 2026Washington PostLV · size n/aD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 45%
Fielded Sep 16–Sep 17, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46.6% · R Mike Rogers 44.7% · O Other 8.7%
Fielded Sep 17, 2026EmersonLV · size n/aD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 46%
Fielded Sep 10, 2026Trafalgar GroupLV · size n/aD Abdul El-Sayed 46% · R Mike Rogers 45%
Fielded Aug 31–Sep 6, 2026CNN843 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 44% · O Other 9%
Fielded Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026Detroit News/Glengariff600 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 44% · R Mike Rogers 46% · O Other 10%
Fielded Aug 29, 2026Abacus Data300 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 49% · R Mike Rogers 45% · O Other 6%
Fielded Aug 22–Aug 28, 2026EPIC-MRA600 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 43%
Fielded Aug 10–Aug 20, 2026MSU IPPSR/OSR (YouGov panel)779 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 50% · R Mike Rogers 45%
Fielded Aug 11–Aug 17, 2026Susquehanna800 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 46% · R Mike Rogers 39%
Fielded Aug 9–Aug 11, 2026Fabrizio/Anzalone877 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 48% · R Mike Rogers 47%
Fielded Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026TIPP1,528 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 42%
Fielded Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026FOX News1,006 RVD Abdul El-Sayed 47% · R Mike Rogers 51%
Fielded Jul 31, 2026Mitchell Research672 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 45%
Fielded Jul 1, 2026Quantus Insights947 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 44%
Fielded Jun 17, 2026Zenith Research602 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 45% · R Mike Rogers 42%
Fielded May 20–May 28, 2026TIPP1,154 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 43% · R Mike Rogers 42%
Fielded May 14, 2026Mitchell Research607 LVD Abdul El-Sayed 41% · R Mike Rogers 42%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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