COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Michigan House Forecast

‹ See all House races

Michigan elects 13 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 6 districts as favoring Democrats, 4 as favoring Republicans and 3 as toss-ups.

Delegation outlook

Democrats lead in 8 of 13 districts

  • Solid D 6
  • Toss-up 3
  • Solid R 4

Forecast summary

Seats
13
Toss-ups
3
Not rated Solid
3
Districts with polls
3 of 13
Closest district
MI-04 R+1.1

District map

Michigan congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

Races to watch

Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.

MI-04R incumbent
Toss-up
Sean McCann D45.3%
Bill Huizenga R54.7%

R+1.1 model margin · 4 district polls

MI-10Open
Toss-up
Christina Hines D57.5%
Michael Bouchard R42.5%

D+1.7 model margin · 2 district polls

MI-07R incumbent
Toss-up
William Lawrence D63.2%
Tom Barrett R36.8%

D+2.7 model margin · 2 district polls

District forecast

MI-04 · R incumbent · Model record under review

Michigan's 4th District

McCann 45.3% · Huizenga 54.7% chance of winning

Model margin
R+1.1
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
R+1.0
Fundamentals
R+1.1
Matchup
Sean McCann vs. Bill Huizenga

How the forecast is built

Polling average R+1.0 4 district polls
Fundamentals R+1.1 Inputs listed below
Projected margin R+1.1 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 24.2%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
R+5.5
Relative district lean
R+5.4
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
R+2.4
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
D+2.9
Full fundamentals
R+1.1
Fundamentals blend weight
50.0%
Total uncertainty
±8.5 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Every district

All 13 Michigan districts

Michigan House districts with rating, model margin, chance of winning and polling
DistrictMatchupRatingModel marginChance of winningPolling average
MI-01Callie Barr D vs. Jack Bergman R
R incumbent		Solid RR+16.0D 5.9% · R 94.1%No district polls
MI-02Ben Ambrose D vs. John Moolenaar R
R incumbent		Solid RR+24.8D 0.8% · R 99.2%No district polls
MI-03Hillary Scholten D vs. Terri DeBoer R
D incumbent		Solid DD+20.5D 97.4% · R 2.6%No district polls
MI-04Sean McCann D vs. Bill Huizenga R
R incumbent		Toss-upR+1.1D 45.3% · R 54.7%R+1.0 4 polls
MI-05Christian Vukasovich D vs. Tim Walberg R
R incumbent		Solid RR+22.4D 1.5% · R 98.5%No district polls
MI-06Debbie Dingell D vs. Heather Smiley R
D incumbent		Solid DD+37.4D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
MI-07William Lawrence D vs. Tom Barrett R
R incumbent		Toss-upD+2.7D 63.2% · R 36.8%D+1.4 2 polls
MI-08Kristen McDonald Rivet D vs. Thomas J. Smith R
D incumbent		Solid DD+15.7D 93.2% · R 6.8%No district polls
MI-09Ray Pooley D vs. Lisa McClain R
R incumbent		Solid RR+27.6D 0.4% · R 99.6%No district polls
MI-10Christina Hines D vs. Michael Bouchard R
Open		Toss-upD+1.7D 57.5% · R 42.5%D+0.1 2 polls
MI-11Jeremy Moss D vs. Ethan Baker R
Open		Solid DD+26.9D 99.5% · R 0.5%No district polls
MI-12Rashida Tlaib D vs. James Hooper R
D incumbent		Solid DD+54.9D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
MI-13Donavan McKinney D vs. Taras Nykoriak R
Open		Solid DD+53.9D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls

Polling inputs

District polls

8 included surveys across 3 districts, newest first.

Field datesDistrictPollsterSampleResults
Sep 13–Sep 16, 2026MI-04GBAO500.0 LVD 47.0% · R 46.0%
Aug 10–Aug 13, 2026MI-10Global Strategy Group600.0 LVD 45.0% · R 45.0%
Aug 11–Aug 13, 2026MI-07Global Strategy GroupLVD 49.0% · R 47.0%
Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026MI-07Data for Progress772.0 LVD 48.0% · R 46.0%
May 28–Jun 1, 2026MI-04GBAO500.0 LVD 48.0% · R 45.0%
Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026MI-04Ragnar Research Partners400.0 LVD 42.0% · R 48.0%
Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026MI-10PPP (Hines)592.0 RVD 44.0% · R 42.0%
Nov 20–Nov 21, 2025MI-04Public Policy Polling559.0 RVD 42.0% · R 44.0%

‹ All 435 House districts