Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
Minnesota Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesLieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is running against Michele Tafoya, a former national sports broadcaster. Minnesota has kept a Democratic streak in presidential elections, but its rural and suburban shifts make a statewide race more complicated than that record suggests.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+5.54
- Rating
- Likely D
- Polling average
- D+2.57
- Fundamentals
- D+11.41
- Matchup
- Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+2.57
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 16, 2026 | KSTP/SurveyUSA* | Not reported LV | D Peggy Flanagan 42% · R Michele Tafoya 42% |
| Fielded Sep 15, 2026 | co/efficient* | Not reported LV | D Peggy Flanagan 43% · R Michele Tafoya 42% |
| Fielded Sep 11, 2026 | Quantus Insights | Not reported LV | D Peggy Flanagan 48% · R Michele Tafoya 44% |
| Fielded Aug 31–Sep 2, 2026 | TIPP | 1,201 LV | D Peggy Flanagan 44% · R Michele Tafoya 42% · O Undecided 14% |
| Fielded Aug 17–Aug 18, 2026 | Deep Root Analytics (R) | 597 RV | D Peggy Flanagan 50% · R Michele Tafoya 45% |
| Fielded Aug 13–Aug 17, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 661 LV | D Peggy Flanagan 46% · R Michele Tafoya 41% · O Rebecca Whiting / Marisa Simonetti 2% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.