Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Minnesota House Forecast
‹ See all House racesMinnesota elects 8 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 4 districts as favoring Democrats, 4 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
The 8 districts split evenly
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 8
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 3
- Districts with polls
- 2 of 8
- Closest district
- MN-01 R+3.6
District map
Minnesota congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
MN-01 · R incumbent
Minnesota's 1st District
Johnson 32.4% · Finstad 67.6% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+3.6
- Rating
- Lean R
- Polling average
- D+1.4
- Fundamentals
- R+6.8
- Matchup
- Jake Johnson vs. Brad Finstad
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 62.4%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+12.0
- Relative district lean
- R+11.5
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+3.2
- Full fundamentals
- R+6.8
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±7.9 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 8 Minnesota districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-01 | Jake Johnson D vs. Brad Finstad R R incumbent | Lean R | R+3.6 | D 32.4% · R 67.6% | D+1.4 5 polls |
| MN-02 | Matt Little D vs. Eric Pratt R Open | Likely D | D+14.2 | D 93.9% · R 6.1% | D+10.6 2 polls |
| MN-03 | Kelly Morrison D vs. Tyler Bass R D incumbent | Solid D | D+31.1 | D 99.8% · R 0.2% | No district polls |
| MN-04 | Betty McCollum D vs. Paul Wikstrom R D incumbent | Solid D | D+47.2 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MN-05 | Ilhan Omar D vs. John Nagel R D incumbent | Solid D | D+69.0 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MN-06 | Doug Chapin D vs. Tom Emmer R R incumbent | Solid R | R+16.2 | D 6.2% · R 93.8% | No district polls |
| MN-07 | Erik Osberg D vs. Michelle Fischbach R R incumbent | Solid R | R+31.0 | D 0.1% · R 99.9% | No district polls |
| MN-08 | Trina Swanson D vs. Pete Stauber R R incumbent | Likely R | R+11.3 | D 14.0% · R 86.0% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
7 included surveys across 2 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4–Oct 9, 2026 | MN-01 | SurveyUSA | 565.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 44.0% |
| Oct 4–Oct 9, 2026 | MN-01 | KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA | 565.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 44.0% |
| Sep 18–Sep 21, 2026 | MN-01 | GBAO | 500.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 46.0% |
| Sep 9–Sep 13, 2026 | MN-02 | Impact Research | 500.0 LV | D 52.0% · R 40.0% |
| Jun 18–Jun 21, 2026 | MN-02 | Harper Polling | 415.0 LV | D 45.0% · R 40.0% |
| Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026 | MN-01 | Ragnar Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 52.0% |
| Feb 2–Feb 3, 2026 | MN-01 | Public Policy Polling | 708.0 RV | D 41.0% · R 44.0% |