Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Missouri House Forecast
‹ See all House racesMissouri elects 8 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 2 districts as favoring Democrats, 6 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 6 of 8 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 8
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 1
- Districts with polls
- 1 of 8
- Closest district
- MO-02 R+6.6
District map
Missouri congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
MO-02 · R incumbent · Model record under review
Missouri's 2nd District
Wellman 23.2% · Wagner 76.8% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+6.6
- Rating
- Lean R
- Polling average
- R+1.0
- Fundamentals
- R+2.9
- Matchup
- Fred Wellman vs. Ann Wagner
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 37.2%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+7.9
- Relative district lean
- R+8.2
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+0.1
- Full fundamentals
- R+2.9
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.9 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 8 Missouri districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO-01 | Wesley Bell D vs. Paul Berry III R D incumbent | Solid D | D+70.6 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MO-02 | Fred Wellman D vs. Ann Wagner R R incumbent | Lean R | R+6.6 | D 23.2% · R 76.8% | R+1.0 1 poll |
| MO-03 | Bethany E Mann D vs. Bob Onder R R incumbent | Solid R | R+19.9 | D 3.1% · R 96.9% | No district polls |
| MO-04 | Jordan Herrera D vs. Mark Alford R R incumbent | Solid R | R+36.4 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| MO-05 | Emanuel Cleaver D vs. Rick Brattin R D incumbent | Solid D | D+35.9 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MO-06 | Josh Smead D vs. Chris Stigall R Open | Solid R | R+31.6 | D 0.2% · R 99.8% | No district polls |
| MO-07 | Missi Hesketh D vs. Eric Burlison R R incumbent | Solid R | R+37.1 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| MO-08 | Chris Reichard D vs. Jason Smith R R incumbent | Solid R | R+47.4 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
1 included survey across 1 district, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14–Sep 15, 2026 | MO-02 | Remington | 565.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 43.0% |