COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Mississippi House Forecast

‹ See all House races

Mississippi elects 4 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 3 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Republicans lead in 3 of 4 districts

  • Solid D 1
  • Solid R 3

Forecast summary

Seats
4
Toss-ups
0
Not rated Solid
0
Districts with polls
0 of 4
Closest district
MS-03 R+22.1

District map

Mississippi congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

All races

Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.

MS-03R incumbent
Solid R
Michael A. Chiaradio D1.8%
Michael Guest R98.2%

R+22.1 model margin · No district polls

MS-01R incumbent
Solid R
Cliff Johnson D0.2%
Trent Kelly R99.8%

R+30.4 model margin · No district polls

MS-02D incumbent
Solid D
Bennie G. Thompson D99.9%
Ron Eller R0.1%

D+34.5 model margin · No district polls

MS-04R incumbent
Solid R
Jeffrey Hulum III D<0.1%
Mike Ezell R>99.9%

R+37.1 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

MS-03 · R incumbent

Mississippi's 3rd District

Chiaradio 1.8% · Guest 98.2% chance of winning

Model margin
R+22.1
Rating
Solid R
Polling average
No district polls
Fundamentals
R+22.1
Matchup
Michael A. Chiaradio vs. Michael Guest

How the forecast is built

Polling average No polls No included district polls
Fundamentals R+22.1 Inputs listed below
Projected margin R+22.1 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 0.0%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
R+29.2
Relative district lean
R+28.0
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
R+2.4
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
R+19.7
Full fundamentals
R+22.1
Fundamentals blend weight
50.0%
Total uncertainty
±10.5 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

‹ All 435 House districts