Updated September 23, 2026 · model inputs through September 22, 2026 · latest included poll: September 17, 2026
Montana Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesThe forecast was recalculated with polling inputs through September 22. The projected margin moved R+21.51 → D+3.36 (D +24.87 points). The rating changed from Safe R to Tilt D. The county map is recalibrated to the September 22 statewide estimate; county baselines and geometry are retained.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+3.36
- Rating
- Tilt D
- Polling average
- D+21.51
- Fundamentals
- R+13.47
- Matchup
- Alani Bankhead vs. Kurt Alme
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
2 polls included in the workbook average. Newest first; latest included field date: September 17, 2026.
Polling average
D+21.51
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results | Model treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17–2026-09-17 | Quantus Insights | — LV | D Bankhead 23% · R Alme 44% | Included in model |
| 2026-09-11–2026-09-11 | Montana Free Press | — LV | D Bankhead 16% · R Alme 38% | Included in model |
Excluded polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded August 23–August 25, 2026 | Peak Insights (R) | 600 LV | D Alani Bankhead 19% · R Kurt Alme 44% · O Other 22% | EXCLUDED |
| July 28, 2026 | GQR | 500 LV | D Alani Bankhead 22% · R Kurt Alme 41% | Missing source URL • EXCLUDED |
| July 27, 2026 | Tavern Research | 517 LV | D Alani Bankhead 24% · R Kurt Alme 49% | Missing source URL • EXCLUDED |
| July 24, 2026 | Bullfinch Group | 793 LV | D Alani Bankhead 22% · R Kurt Alme 36% | Missing source URL • EXCLUDED |
| June 30, 2026 | Grayhouse | 500 LV | D Alani Bankhead 25% · R Kurt Alme 41% | Missing source URL • EXCLUDED |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.