Updated November 3, 2026 · model inputs through November 3, 2026
Montana Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesMontana has voted decisively Republican in recent federal contests. Independent Seth Bodnar is the model’s main challenger to Republican Kurt Alme, with Democrat Alani Bankhead also on the ballot. Even as the leading alternative to Alme, Bodnar faces a state baseline that strongly favors Republicans.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+11.48
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+9.99
- Fundamentals
- R+13.05
- Matchup
- Seth Bodnar vs. Kurt Alme
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Chance of winning over time
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Published model margins by release date.
View release data
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Included surveys, newest first.
Polling average
R+9.99
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Oct 22–Oct 23, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners | 410 LV | I Seth Bodnar 39% · R Kurt Alme 38% |
| Fielded Oct 5–Oct 21, 2026 | MSU - Billings | 720 A | I Seth Bodnar 26% · R Kurt Alme 30% |
| Fielded Sep 17, 2026 | Quantus Insights | LV · size n/a | I Seth Bodnar 24% · R Kurt Alme 44% · O Other 23% |
| Fielded Sep 11, 2026 | Montana Free Press | LV · size n/a | I Seth Bodnar 30% · R Kurt Alme 38% · O Other 21% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.