Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Montana House Forecast

Montana elects 2 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 0 districts as favoring Democrats, 1 as favoring Republicans and 1 as a toss-up.

Delegation outlook

Republicans lead in 2 of 2 districts

Toss-up 1
Solid R 1

Seats: 2
Toss-ups: 1
Not rated Solid: 1
Districts with polls: 2 of 2
Closest district: MT-01 R+0.4

District map

Montana congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

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Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

All races

Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.

MT-01Open

Toss-up

Sam Forstag D48.4%

Aaron Flint R51.6%

R+0.4 model margin · 6 district polls

R+22.9 model margin · 1 district poll

District forecast

District

MT-01 · Open

Montana's 1st District

Forstag 48.4% · Flint 51.6% chance of winning

Model margin: R+0.4
Rating: Toss-up
Polling average: Even
Fundamentals: R+0.4
Matchup: Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint

How the forecast is built

Polling average Even 6 district polls

Fundamentals R+0.4 Inputs listed below

Projected margin R+0.4 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 57.3%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin: R+11.6
Relative district lean: R+10.4
Generic ballot: D+8.3
National environment: D+8.3
Incumbency: None
Candidate: None
Fundraising: None
Simple fundamentals: R+2.1
Full fundamentals: R+0.4
Fundamentals blend weight: 50.0%
Total uncertainty: ±7.0 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Polling inputs

District polls

7 included surveys across 2 districts, newest first.

Field dates	District	Pollster	Sample	Results
Sep 19–Sep 24, 2026	MT-01	American Pulse Research & Polling	314.0 LV	D 45.4% · R 45.9%
Sep 20–Sep 23, 2026	MT-01	Impact Research	500.0 LV	D 47.0% · R 44.0%
Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026	MT-01	Public Policy Polling	536.0 RV	D 45.0% · R 43.0%
Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026	MT-02	Rutgers-Eagleton	RV	D 26.0% · R 48.0%
Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026	MT-01	Rutgers-Eagleton	375.0 RV	D 41.0% · R 42.0%
Jun 25, 2026	MT-01	Impact Research	500.0 LV	D 44.0% · R 44.0%
May 5, 2026	MT-01	Upswing Research	401.0 LV	D 43.0% · R 48.0%

‹ All 435 House districts