Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
North Carolina Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesFormer Governor Roy Cooper is running against Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, for an open seat. North Carolina’s Senate races have a habit of staying competitive even when the presidential vote points in one direction.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+7.84
- Rating
- Likely D
- Polling average
- D+9.17
- Fundamentals
- D+3.86
- Matchup
- Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+9.17
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 22, 2026 | Rasmussen Reports | 1,047 LV | D Roy Cooper 48% · R Michael Whatley 41% · O Other / undecided 11% |
| Fielded Sep 21–Sep 22, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 686 LV | D Roy Cooper 48% · R Michael Whatley 43% · O Other / undecided 9% |
| Fielded Sep 15–Sep 18, 2026 | YouGov | 3,895 RV | D Roy Cooper 52% · R Michael Whatley 41% · O Other / undecided / no vote 7% |
| Fielded Sep 17, 2026 | Carolina Journal/Harper* | Not reported LV | D Roy Cooper 49% · R Michael Whatley 34% |
| Fielded Sep 9–Sep 16, 2026 | High Point University | 706 LV | D Roy Cooper 50% · R Michael Whatley 42% · O Other / unsure 8% |
| Fielded Sep 13, 2026 | Trafalgar Group* | Not reported LV | D Roy Cooper 48% · R Michael Whatley 42% |
| Fielded Sep 10, 2026 | Elon University* | Not reported LV | D Roy Cooper 49% · R Michael Whatley 38% |
| Fielded Sep 10, 2026 | East Carolina U. | Not reported LV | D Roy Cooper 52% · R Michael Whatley 44% |
| Fielded Aug 3–Aug 12, 2026 | High Point University | 660 LV | D Roy Cooper 50% · R Michael Whatley 45% |
| Fielded Aug 9–Aug 10, 2026 | Carolina Journal/Harper | 600 LV | D Roy Cooper 52% · R Michael Whatley 39% |
| Fielded Aug 6, 2026 | Change Research | 967 RV | D Roy Cooper 50% · R Michael Whatley 41% |
| Fielded Jul 23–Jul 31, 2026 | Elon University | 466 LV | D Roy Cooper 53% · R Michael Whatley 42% |
| Fielded Jul 29, 2026 | Fox News | 1,005 RV | D Roy Cooper 53% · R Michael Whatley 44% |
| Fielded Jul 13, 2026 | PPP | 769 RV | D Roy Cooper 48% · R Michael Whatley 44% |
| Fielded Jul 1, 2026 | Siena | 601 LV | D Roy Cooper 50% · R Michael Whatley 43% |
| Fielded May 18, 2026 | Change Research | 957 LV | D Roy Cooper 49% · R Michael Whatley 42% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.