Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
North Carolina House Forecast
‹ See all House racesNorth Carolina elects 14 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 3 districts as favoring Democrats, 9 as favoring Republicans and 2 as toss-ups.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 10 of 14 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 14
- Toss-ups
- 2
- Not rated Solid
- 11
- Districts with polls
- 6 of 14
- Closest district
- NC-11 R+1.4
District map
North Carolina congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
NC-11Open
Jamie Ager D44.7%
Jennifer Balkcom R55.3%
R+1.4 model margin · No district polls
NC-01D incumbent
Don Davis D60.3%
Laurie Buckhout R39.7%
D+1.9 model margin · 7 district polls
NC-03R incumbent
Raymond Smith Jr. D17.6%
Greg Murphy R82.4%
R+8.5 model margin · 1 district poll
NC-07R incumbent
Kimberly Hardy D14.7%
David Rouzer R85.3%
R+9.6 model margin · 1 district poll
NC-09R incumbent
Richard Ojeda D13.0%
Richard Hudson R87.0%
R+10.5 model margin · 1 district poll
NC-14R incumbent
Lakesha Womack D11.1%
Tim Moore R88.9%
R+10.9 model margin · 1 district poll
NC-10R incumbent
Ashley Bell D8.5%
Pat Harrigan R91.5%
R+12.5 model margin · 1 district poll
NC-13R incumbent
Paul Barringer D11.7%
Brad Knott R88.3%
R+12.9 model margin · No district polls
NC-06R incumbent
Cyril Jefferson D11.0%
Addison McDowell R89.0%
R+13.0 model margin · No district polls
NC-05R incumbent
Chuck Hubbard D11.1%
Virginia Foxx R88.9%
R+13.1 model margin · No district polls
NC-08R incumbent
Colby Watson D8.7%
Mark Harris R91.3%
R+14.4 model margin · No district polls
NC-11 · Open · Model record under review
North Carolina's 11th District
Ager 44.7% · Balkcom 55.3% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+1.4
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- R+1.9
- Matchup
- Jamie Ager vs. Jennifer Balkcom
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+9.5
- Relative district lean
- R+10.2
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- None
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+1.9
- Full fundamentals
- R+1.9
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 35.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.6 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 14 North Carolina districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-01 | Don Davis D vs. Laurie Buckhout R D incumbent | Toss-up | D+1.9 | D 60.3% · R 39.7% | D+5.5 7 polls |
| NC-02 | Deborah Ross D vs. Eugene Douglass R D incumbent | Solid D | D+43.5 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| NC-03 | Raymond Smith Jr. D vs. Greg Murphy R R incumbent | Likely R | R+8.5 | D 17.6% · R 82.4% | R+3.0 1 poll |
| NC-04 | Valerie Foushee D vs. Mahesh Ganorkar R D incumbent | Solid D | D+54.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| NC-05 | Chuck Hubbard D vs. Virginia Foxx R R incumbent | Likely R | R+13.1 | D 11.1% · R 88.9% | No district polls |
| NC-06 | Cyril Jefferson D vs. Addison McDowell R R incumbent | Likely R | R+13.0 | D 11.0% · R 89.0% | No district polls |
| NC-07 | Kimberly Hardy D vs. David Rouzer R R incumbent | Likely R | R+9.6 | D 14.7% · R 85.3% | R+8.0 1 poll |
| NC-08 | Colby Watson D vs. Mark Harris R R incumbent | Likely R | R+14.4 | D 8.7% · R 91.3% | No district polls |
| NC-09 | Richard Ojeda D vs. Richard Hudson R R incumbent | Likely R | R+10.5 | D 13.0% · R 87.0% | R+4.0 1 poll |
| NC-10 | Ashley Bell D vs. Pat Harrigan R R incumbent | Likely R | R+12.5 | D 8.5% · R 91.5% | R+15.0 1 poll |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager D vs. Jennifer Balkcom R Open | Toss-up | R+1.4 | D 44.7% · R 55.3% | No district polls |
| NC-12 | Alma Adams D vs. Jack Codiga R D incumbent | Solid D | D+56.6 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| NC-13 | Paul Barringer D vs. Brad Knott R R incumbent | Likely R | R+12.9 | D 11.7% · R 88.3% | No district polls |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack D vs. Tim Moore R R incumbent | Likely R | R+10.9 | D 11.1% · R 88.9% | R+8.0 1 poll |
Polling inputs
District polls
12 included surveys across 6 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6–Oct 8, 2026 | NC-01 | co/efficient | 623.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 43.0% |
| Oct 1–Oct 6, 2026 | NC-01 | Neighborhood Research Corporation | 303.0 LV | D 51.0% · R 41.0% |
| Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026 | NC-01 | GQR | 500.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 39.0% |
| Sep 8–Sep 11, 2026 | NC-01 | GBAO | 500.0 LV | D 50.0% · R 43.0% |
| Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026 | NC-09 | Lake Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 46.0% |
| Aug 19–Aug 20, 2026 | NC-07 | Public Policy Polling | 517.0 RV | D 39.0% · R 45.0% |
| Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026 | NC-03 | Tulchin Research | LV | D 41.0% · R 44.0% |
| Jun 28, 2026 | NC-01 | GQR | 500.0 LV | D 45.0% · R 41.0% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | NC-01 | co/efficient | 842.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 41.0% |
| Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026 | NC-14 | Ragnar Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 48.0% |
| Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026 | NC-10 | Ragnar Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 37.0% · R 52.0% |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NC-01 | GQR | 500.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 39.0% |