Updated November 3, 2026 · model inputs through November 3, 2026
Nebraska Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesIndependent Dan Osborn, a labor organizer and former mechanic, is running against Senator Pete Ricketts, the former governor. Nebraska is a deeply Republican state, but Osborn’s campaign tests whether an independent, working-class appeal can travel farther than the party map allows.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+4.31
- Rating
- Lean R
- Polling average
- R+2.90
- Fundamentals
- R+7.39
- Matchup
- Dan Osborn vs. Pete Ricketts
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Chance of winning over time
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Published model margins by release date.
View release data
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Included surveys, newest first.
Polling average
R+2.90
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Oct 29–Nov 1, 2026 | GrayHouse | 534 LV | I Dan Osborn 46% · R Pete Ricketts 50% |
| Fielded Oct 26–Oct 29, 2026 | YouGov | 1,979 LV | I Dan Osborn 49% · R Pete Ricketts 49% |
| Fielded Oct 23–Oct 29, 2026 | NY Times/Siena | 809 LV | I Dan Osborn 43% · R Pete Ricketts 49% |
| Fielded Oct 25–Oct 29, 2026 | National Public Affairs (R) | 800 LV | I Dan Osborn 45% · R Pete Ricketts 48% |
| Fielded Sep 24–Oct 3, 2026 | YouGov | 1,809 LV | I Dan Osborn 48% · R Pete Ricketts 47% |
| Fielded Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | co/efficient | 1,113 LV | I Dan Osborn 43% · R Pete Ricketts 48% · O Other 9% |
| Fielded Aug 9–Aug 13, 2026 | Impact Research | 600 LV | I Dan Osborn 47% · R Pete Ricketts 47% |
| Fielded May 9–May 12, 2026 | Tavern1 | 1,165 LV | I Dan Osborn 42% · R Pete Ricketts 49% |
| Fielded May 11, 2026 | Tavern Research | 1,165 LV | I Dan Osborn 47% · R Pete Ricketts 42% |
| Fielded Feb 2–Feb 5, 2026 | Impact Research | 600 LV | I Dan Osborn 48% · R Pete Ricketts 46% |
| Fielded Dec 11–Dec 17, 2025 | Lake Research Partners | 900 LV | I Dan Osborn 47% · R Pete Ricketts 48% |
| Fielded Jul 29, 2025 | Lake Research Partners | 900 LV | I Dan Osborn 47% · R Pete Ricketts 46% |
| Fielded Mar 28–Apr 1, 2025 | Change Research | 524 LV | I Dan Osborn 45% · R Pete Ricketts 46% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.