COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 23, 2026 · model inputs through September 22, 2026 · latest included poll: August 13, 2026

Nebraska Senate Forecast

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The forecast was recalculated with polling inputs through September 22. The projected margin moved R+4.96 → R+5.41 (R +0.45 points). The rating changed from Lean R to Likely R. The county map is recalibrated to the September 22 statewide estimate; county baselines and geometry are retained.

Forecast summary

Model margin
R+5.41
Rating
Likely R
Polling average
R+0.33
Fundamentals
R+7.80
Matchup
Dan Osborn vs. Pete Ricketts

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

7 polls included in the workbook average. Newest first; latest included field date: August 13, 2026.

Polling average
R+0.33

Field dates Pollster Sample Results Model treatment
Fielded August 9–August 13, 2026Impact Research600 LVD Osborn 47% · R Pete Ricketts 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded May 9–May 12, 2026Tavern11165 LVD Dan Osborn* 42% · R Pete Ricketts 49%Included in the Senate polling average.
May 11, 2026Tavern Research1165 LVD Osborn 47% · R Pete Ricketts 42%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded February 2–February 5, 2026Impact Research600 LVD Dan Osborn* 48% · R Pete Ricketts 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded December 11–December 17, 2025Lake Research Partners900 LVD Dan Osborn 47% · R Pete Ricketts 48%Included in the Senate polling average.
July 29, 2025Lake Research Partners900 LVD Osborn 47% · R Pete Ricketts 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded March 28–April 1, 2025Change Research524 LVD Dan Osborn* 45% · R Pete Ricketts 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
Excluded polls
Field datesPollsterSampleResultsReason
Fielded May 10–May 13, 2026Tavern21165 LVD Burbank 39% · R Pete Ricketts 48%Missing source URL • EXCLUDED

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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