Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Nebraska House Forecast
‹ See all House racesNebraska elects 3 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 2 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 2 of 3 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 3
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 2
- Districts with polls
- 2 of 3
- Closest district
- NE-01 R+7.6
District map
Nebraska congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
All races
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
NE-01 · R incumbent
Nebraska's 1st District
Backemeyer 21.8% · Flood 78.2% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+7.6
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+0.2
- Fundamentals
- R+8.8
- Matchup
- Christopher Backemeyer vs. Mike Flood
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 26.5%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+13.0
- Relative district lean
- R+12.7
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+4.4
- Full fundamentals
- R+8.8
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±9.6 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Polling inputs
District polls
3 included surveys across 2 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8–Sep 13, 2026 | NE-02 | SurveyUSA | 182.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 42.0% |
| Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026 | NE-01 | Global Strategy Group | 600.0 LV | D 43.0% · R 42.0% |
| May 11, 2026 | NE-01 | Zenith Research | 371.0 LV | D 38.0% · R 45.0% |