Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
New Hampshire Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesRepresentative Chris Pappas is facing former Senator John Sununu in a state that has made room for both parties. Sununu returns to a name familiar to New Hampshire voters; Pappas’s congressional record gives Democrats a statewide candidate with an established profile.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+5.89
- Rating
- Likely D
- Polling average
- D+4.07
- Fundamentals
- D+10.18
- Matchup
- Chris Pappas vs. John Sununu
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+4.07
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 23–Sep 25, 2026 | Trafalgar Group | 1,090 LV | D Chris Pappas 46% · R John Sununu 42% · O Undecided / other 12% |
| Fielded Sep 15–Sep 22, 2026 | New York Times / Siena | 613 LV | D Chris Pappas 50% · R John Sununu 45% · O Undecided / other 5% |
| Fielded Sep 15, 2026 | co/efficient | Not reported LV | D Chris Pappas 46% · R John Sununu 46% |
| Fielded Sep 11, 2026 | Rasmussen Reports* | Not reported LV | D Chris Pappas 45% · R John Sununu 34% |
| Fielded Aug 27–Aug 30, 2026 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | 600 LV | D Chris Pappas 36% · R John Sununu 37% · O Undecided/other 27% |
| Fielded Aug 20–Aug 24, 2026 | UNH | 1,878 LV | D Chris Pappas 43% · R John Sununu 45% · O Another candidate 5% |
| Fielded Aug 17–Aug 18, 2026 | Saint Anselm College | 1,411 LV | D Chris Pappas 48% · R John Sununu 41% |
| Fielded Jun 30, 2026 | UNH | 2,232 LV | D Chris Pappas 47% · R John Sununu 44% |
| Fielded Jun 30, 2026 | St Anselm College | 1,614 RV | D Chris Pappas 47% · R John Sununu 41% |
| Fielded Apr 23, 2026 | UNH | 1,129 LV | D Chris Pappas 49% · R John Sununu 42% |
| Fielded Mar 26, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,100 LV | D Chris Pappas 45% · R John Sununu 44% |
| Fielded Mar 23, 2026 | Saint Anselm College | 1,491 RV | D Chris Pappas 46% · R John Sununu 43% |
| Fielded Jan 21, 2026 | UNH | 2,053 LV | D Chris Pappas 50% · R John Sununu 45% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.