Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
New Jersey House Forecast
‹ See all House racesNew Jersey elects 12 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 10 districts as favoring Democrats, 2 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 10 of 12 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 12
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 2
- Districts with polls
- 1 of 12
- Closest district
- NJ-07 D+3.7
District map
New Jersey congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
NJ-07 · R incumbent
New Jersey's 7th District
Bennett 66.3% · Jr. 33.7% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+3.7
- Rating
- Lean D
- Polling average
- D+4.9
- Fundamentals
- D+4.7
- Matchup
- Rebecca Bennett vs. Tom Kean Jr.
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 37.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.2
- Relative district lean
- Even
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+8.3
- Full fundamentals
- D+4.7
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 12 New Jersey districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-01 | Donald Norcross D vs. Damon Galdo R D incumbent | Solid D | D+31.1 | D 99.9% · R 0.1% | No district polls |
| NJ-02 | Zack Mullock D vs. Jeff Van Drew R R incumbent | Likely R | R+10.3 | D 16.6% · R 83.4% | No district polls |
| NJ-03 | Herbert C. Conaway Jr. D vs. Michael McGuire R D incumbent | Solid D | D+21.1 | D 97.8% · R 2.2% | No district polls |
| NJ-04 | Rachel Peace D vs. Chris Smith R R incumbent | Solid R | R+24.4 | D 0.9% · R 99.1% | No district polls |
| NJ-05 | Josh Gottheimer D vs. Sean Kirrane R D incumbent | Solid D | D+19.1 | D 96.6% · R 3.4% | No district polls |
| NJ-06 | Frank Pallone D vs. Hillary Herzig R D incumbent | Solid D | D+24.3 | D 99.1% · R 0.9% | No district polls |
| NJ-07 | Rebecca Bennett D vs. Tom Kean Jr. R R incumbent | Lean D | D+3.7 | D 66.3% · R 33.7% | D+4.9 2 polls |
| NJ-08 | Rob Menendez D vs. No Republican nominee R D incumbent | Solid D | D+40.3 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| NJ-09 | Nellie Pou D vs. Rosie Pino R D incumbent | Solid D | D+17.5 | D 95.5% · R 4.5% | No district polls |
| NJ-10 | LaMonica McIver D vs. Carmen Bucco R D incumbent | Solid D | D+65.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| NJ-11 | Analilia Mejia D vs. Joe Hathaway R D incumbent | Solid D | D+24.3 | D 99.0% · R 1.0% | No district polls |
| NJ-12 | Adam Hamawy D vs. Gregg Mele R Open | Solid D | D+35.5 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
2 included surveys across 1 district, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8–Sep 12, 2026 | NJ-07 | StimSight Research | 498.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 42.0% |
| May 26, 2026 | NJ-07 | Z to A Research | 430.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 43.0% |