Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
New Mexico Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesSenator Ben Ray Luján is running against Larry Marker in a state where Democrats have held a durable statewide advantage. New Mexico’s mix of Indigenous, Hispanic, urban and rural communities gives its politics a character that national party shorthand often misses.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+16.18
- Rating
- Safe D
- Polling average
- D+16.48
- Fundamentals
- D+16.09
- Matchup
- Ben Ray Luján vs. Larry Marker
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+16.48
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Aug 21–Aug 28, 2026 | Research and Polling | 516 LV | D Ben Ray Luján 53% · R Larry Marker 38% · O Undecided 9% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.