Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

New Mexico House Forecast

New Mexico elects 3 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 3 districts as favoring Democrats, 0 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Democrats lead in 3 of 3 districts

Solid D 2
Lean D 1

Seats: 3
Toss-ups: 0
Not rated Solid: 1
Districts with polls: 3 of 3
Closest district: NM-02 D+6.6

District map

New Mexico congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

All races

Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.

NM-02D incumbent

Lean D

Gabe Vasquez D75.6%

Greg Cunningham R24.4%

D+6.6 model margin · 3 district polls

NM-03D incumbent

Solid D

Teresa Leger Fernández D97.8%

Martin Ruben Zamora R2.2%

D+18.5 model margin · 1 district poll

NM-01D incumbent

Solid D

Melanie Ann Stansbury D99.1%

Ndidiamaka Okpareke R0.9%

D+22.3 model margin · 1 district poll

District forecast

District

NM-02 · D incumbent

New Mexico's 2nd District

Vasquez 75.6% · Cunningham 24.4% chance of winning

Model margin: D+6.6
Rating: Lean D
Polling average: D+3.5
Fundamentals: D+13.6
Matchup: Gabe Vasquez vs. Greg Cunningham

How the forecast is built

Polling average D+3.5 3 district polls

Fundamentals D+13.6 Inputs listed below

Projected margin D+6.6 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 46.7%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin: R+1.8
Relative district lean: D+0.2
Generic ballot: D+8.3
National environment: D+8.3
Incumbency: D+2.4
Candidate: None
Fundraising: None
Simple fundamentals: D+8.5
Full fundamentals: D+13.6
Fundamentals blend weight: 50.0%
Total uncertainty: ±9.8 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Polling inputs

District polls

5 included surveys across 3 districts, newest first.

Field dates	District	Pollster	Sample	Results
Oct 1–Oct 9, 2026	NM-02	Research & Polling	383.0 LV	D 48.0% · R 44.0%
Oct 1–Oct 9, 2026	NM-03	Research & Polling Inc.	362.0 LV	D 53.0% · R 39.0%
Oct 1–Oct 9, 2026	NM-01	Research & Polling Inc.	380.0 LV	D 53.0% · R 35.0%
Aug 28–Sep 2, 2026	NM-02	SurveyUSA	554.0 LV	D 46.0% · R 43.0%
Apr 28, 2026	NM-02	co/efficient	879.0 LV	D 43.0% · R 41.0%