Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Nevada House Forecast

Nevada elects 4 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 3 districts as favoring Democrats, 1 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Democrats lead in 3 of 4 districts

Solid D 1
Likely D 2
Lean R 1

Seats: 4
Toss-ups: 0
Not rated Solid: 3
Districts with polls: 1 of 4
Closest district: NV-02 R+3.8

District map

Nevada congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

All races

Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.

NV-02Open

Lean R

Teresa Benitez-Thompson D34.8%

David Flippo R65.2%

R+3.8 model margin · 2 district polls

NV-03D incumbent

Likely D

Susie Lee D84.4%

Marty O'Donnell R15.6%

D+10.7 model margin · No district polls

D+13.3 model margin · No district polls

NV-04D incumbent

Solid D

Steven Horsford D93.2%

Cody Whipple R6.8%

D+15.5 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

District

NV-02 · Open

Nevada's 2nd District

Benitez-Thompson 34.8% · Flippo 65.2% chance of winning

Model margin: R+3.8
Rating: Lean R
Polling average: R+1.9
Fundamentals: R+5.1
Matchup: Teresa Benitez-Thompson vs. David Flippo

How the forecast is built

Polling average R+1.9 2 district polls

Fundamentals R+5.1 Inputs listed below

Projected margin R+3.8 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 33.3%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin: R+13.9
Relative district lean: R+13.4
Generic ballot: D+8.3
National environment: D+8.3
Incumbency: None
Candidate: None
Fundraising: None
Simple fundamentals: R+5.1
Full fundamentals: R+5.1
Fundamentals blend weight: 50.0%
Total uncertainty: ±8.9 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Polling inputs

District polls

2 included surveys across 1 district, newest first.

Field dates	District	Pollster	Sample	Results
Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026	NV-02	GBAO	500.0 LV	D 38.0% · R 37.0%
Aug 22–Aug 26, 2026	NV-02	Strategies 360	400.0 LV	D 42.0% · R 45.0%