COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

New York House Forecast

‹ See all House races

New York elects 26 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 19 districts as favoring Democrats, 6 as favoring Republicans and 1 as a toss-up.

Delegation outlook

Democrats lead in 20 of 26 districts

  • Solid D 17
  • Likely D 2
  • Toss-up 1
  • Lean R 2
  • Likely R 1
  • Solid R 3

Forecast summary

Seats
26
Toss-ups
1
Not rated Solid
6
Districts with polls
5 of 26
Closest district
NY-17 D+2.1

District map

New York congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

Races to watch

Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.

NY-17R incumbent
Toss-up
Cait Conley D61.7%
Mike Lawler R38.3%

D+2.1 model margin · 4 district polls

NY-21Open
Lean R
Blake Gendebien D28.5%
Anthony Constantino R71.5%

R+4.6 model margin · 7 district polls

NY-01R incumbent
Lean R
Chris Gallant D29.3%
Nick LaLota R70.7%

R+5.0 model margin · 1 district poll

NY-02R incumbent
Likely R
Patrick Halpin D17.1%
Andrew Garbarino R82.9%

R+10.2 model margin · No district polls

NY-03D incumbent
Likely D
Tom Suozzi D86.5%
Michael LiPetri Jr. R13.5%

D+11.5 model margin · No district polls

NY-04D incumbent
Likely D
Laura Gillen D88.4%
Jeanine Driscoll R11.6%

D+12.3 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

NY-17 · R incumbent

New York's 17th District

Conley 61.7% · Lawler 38.3% chance of winning

Model margin
D+2.1
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
R+0.8
Fundamentals
D+8.0
Matchup
Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler

How the forecast is built

Polling average R+0.8 4 district polls
Fundamentals D+8.0 Inputs listed below
Projected margin D+2.1 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 55.9%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
D+0.6
Relative district lean
D+3.1
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
R+2.4
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
D+11.4
Full fundamentals
D+8.0
Fundamentals blend weight
50.0%
Total uncertainty
±7.9 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Every district

All 26 New York districts

New York House districts with rating, model margin, chance of winning and polling
DistrictMatchupRatingModel marginChance of winningPolling average
NY-01Chris Gallant D vs. Nick LaLota R
R incumbent		Lean RR+5.0D 29.3% · R 70.7%R+5.0 1 poll
NY-02Patrick Halpin D vs. Andrew Garbarino R
R incumbent		Likely RR+10.2D 17.1% · R 82.9%No district polls
NY-03Tom Suozzi D vs. Michael LiPetri Jr. R
D incumbent		Likely DD+11.5D 86.5% · R 13.5%No district polls
NY-04Laura Gillen D vs. Jeanine Driscoll R
D incumbent		Likely DD+12.3D 88.4% · R 11.6%No district polls
NY-05Gregory Meeks D vs. George Marsh R
D incumbent		Solid DD+60.4D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-06Grace Meng D vs. Joseph Chou R
D incumbent		Solid DD+29.8D 99.8% · R 0.2%No district polls
NY-07Claire Valdez D vs. Melvin Rivera R
Open		Solid DD+60.7D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-08Hakeem Jeffries D vs. Lewis Mizrahi R
D incumbent		Solid DD+62.2D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-09Yvette D. Clarke D vs. Joel Anabilah-Azumah R
D incumbent		Solid DD+59.8D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-10Brad Lander D vs. Jennifer Moore R
Open		Solid DD+74.5D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-11Michael DeCillis D vs. Nicole Malliotakis R
R incumbent		Solid RR+16.1D 6.4% · R 93.6%No district polls
NY-12Micah Lasher D vs. Caroline Shinkle R
Open		Solid DD+72.5D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-13Darializa Avila Chevalier D vs. Jomo M. Williams R
Open		Solid DD+75.5D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D vs. Diamant Hysenaj R
D incumbent		Solid DD+49.7D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-15Ritchie Torres D vs. Stylo A. Sapaskis R
D incumbent		Solid DD+68.6D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-16George Latimer D vs. Joseph Cinquemani R
D incumbent		Solid DD+50.9D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
NY-17Cait Conley D vs. Mike Lawler R
R incumbent		Toss-upD+2.1D 61.7% · R 38.3%R+0.8 4 polls
NY-18Pat Ryan D vs. Jackie Auringer R
D incumbent		Solid DD+19.1D 97.9% · R 2.1%D+14.7 2 polls
NY-19Josh Riley D vs. Peter Oberacker R
D incumbent		Solid DD+15.6D 92.7% · R 7.3%No district polls
NY-20Paul Tonko D vs. Ralph Ambrosio R
D incumbent		Solid DD+30.9D 99.9% · R 0.1%No district polls
NY-21Blake Gendebien D vs. Anthony Constantino R
Open		Lean RR+4.6D 28.5% · R 71.5%R+0.5 7 polls
NY-22John Mannion D vs. Kailee Buller R
D incumbent		Solid DD+21.4D 97.9% · R 2.1%No district polls
NY-23Aaron Gies D vs. Nick Langworthy R
R incumbent		Solid RR+16.4D 3.3% · R 96.7%R+19.0 1 poll
NY-24Alissa Ellman D vs. Claudia Tenney R
R incumbent		Solid RR+17.6D 4.5% · R 95.5%No district polls
NY-25Joseph Morelle D vs. Virginia McIntyre R
D incumbent		Solid DD+30.0D 99.8% · R 0.2%No district polls
NY-26Tim Kennedy D vs. Dennis Hannon R
D incumbent		Solid DD+37.6D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls

Polling inputs

District polls

15 included surveys across 5 districts, newest first.

Field datesDistrictPollsterSampleResults
Sep 30–Oct 6, 2026NY-21Siena College496.0 LVD 46.0% · R 42.0% · O 5.0%
Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026NY-21Impact Research500.0 LVD 45.0% · R 48.0%
Sep 29–Sep 30, 2026NY-18Public Policy Polling561.0 RVD 52.0% · R 35.0%
Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026NY-17McLaughlin & Associates400.0 LVD 47.0% · R 50.0%
Sep 27–Sep 29, 2026NY-17Emerson College400.0 LVD 48.0% · R 46.0%
Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026NY-23Public Policy Polling626.0 LVD 35.0% · R 52.0%
Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026NY-21Public Policy Polling557.0 RVD 43.0% · R 48.0%
Aug 30–Sep 2, 2026NY-21Impact Research500.0 LVD 44.0% · R 47.0%
Aug 15–Aug 17, 2026NY-21J.L. Partners500.0 LVD 40.0% · R 50.0%
Aug 4–Aug 8, 2026NY-21SurveyUSA711.0 RVD 43.0% · R 39.0% · O 5.0%
Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026NY-18Global Strategy Group500.0 LVD 53.0% · R 39.0%
Jul 22, 2026NY-17co/efficient1,292.0 LVD 45.0% · R 50.0%
Jul 1, 2026NY-17FM3 Research509.0 LVD 51.0% · R 45.0%
May 31, 2026NY-21Impact Research500.0 LVD 44.0% · R 45.0%
Dec 10–Dec 11, 2025NY-01Public Policy Polling579.0 RVD 38.0% · R 41.0%

‹ All 435 House districts