Updated September 23, 2026 · model inputs through September 22, 2026 · latest included poll: September 17, 2026
Ohio Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesThe forecast was recalculated with polling inputs through September 22. The projected margin moved D+2.13 → D+2.02 (R +0.11 points). The rating remains Tilt D. The county map is recalibrated to the September 22 statewide estimate; county baselines and geometry are retained.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+2.02
- Rating
- Tilt D
- Polling average
- D+3.73
- Fundamentals
- R+1.49
- Matchup
- Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
11 polls included in the workbook average. Newest first; latest included field date: September 17, 2026.
Polling average
D+3.73
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results | Model treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17–2026-09-17 | Trafalgar Group | — LV | D Sherrod Brown 45% · R Jon Husted 42% | Included in model |
| 2026-09-16–2026-09-16 | Bowling Green/YouGov* | — LV | D Sherrod Brown 48% · R Jon Husted 45% | Included in model |
| 2026-09-10–2026-09-10 | InsiderAdvantage | — LV | D Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 42% | Included in model |
| August 29, 2026 | Abacus Data | 300 LV | D Sherrod Brown 52% · R Jon Husted 46% · O Other 2% | Included in the Senate polling average. |
| Fielded August 11–August 13, 2026 | Wedgewood Polls | 800 LV | D Sherrod Brown 48% · R Jon Husted 44% | Included in the Senate polling average. |
| Fielded July 29–August 4, 2026 | Tulchin Research | 600 LV | D Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 43% | Included in the Senate polling average. |
| July 1, 2026 | Siena | 601 LV | D Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 50% | Included in the Senate polling average. |
| June 25, 2026 | AARP | 800 LV | D Sherrod Brown 48% · R Jon Husted 45% | Included in the Senate polling average. |
| Fielded June 2–June 4, 2026 | Tulchin Research | 600 LV | D Sherrod Brown 46% · R Jon Husted 42% | Included in the Senate polling average. |
| Fielded May 28–June 1, 2026 | Fox News | 1015 RV | D Sherrod Brown 53% · R Jon Husted 45% | Included in the Senate polling average. |
| Fielded April 7–April 14, 2026 | YouGov | 1000 RV | D Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 50% | Included in the Senate polling average. |
Excluded polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | AARP | — | Missing end date • Missing sample size • Missing sample type • Missing major-party shares • Missing source URL • EXCLUDED | |
| June 3, 2026 | Fox News | — | Missing end date • Missing sample size • Missing sample type • Missing major-party shares • Missing source URL • EXCLUDED | |
| July 1, 2026 | Siena | — | Missing end date • Missing sample size • Missing sample type • Missing major-party shares • Missing source URL • EXCLUDED | |
| June 3, 2026 | Fox News | 1015 RV | D Sherrod Brown 53% · R Jon Husted 45% | Missing source URL • EXCLUDED |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.