COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne
Final forecast · Nov. 3

Updated November 3, 2026 · model inputs through November 3, 2026

Ohio Senate Forecast

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Former Senator Sherrod Brown is running against Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted in a state that has moved right in federal elections. Brown’s return gives Democrats a familiar labor-minded candidate; Husted brings years of statewide Republican experience.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+2.39
Rating
Tilt D
Polling average
D+3.24
Fundamentals
R+1.08
Matchup
Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted

FORECAST HISTORY

Chance of winning over time

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Published model margins by release date.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Included surveys, newest first.

Polling average
D+3.24

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 1, 2026Trafalgar Group1,092 LVD Sherrod Brown 46.6% · R Jon Husted 45.1% · O Other 4.8%
Fielded Oct 27–Nov 1, 2026Survey 1601,122 LVD Sherrod Brown 50% · R Jon Husted 46%
Fielded Oct 30–Nov 1, 2026Research Co.450 LVD Sherrod Brown 45% · R Jon Husted 44%
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 1, 2026Poll Vault/Emerson930 LVD Sherrod Brown 46% · R Jon Husted 48%
Fielded Oct 26–Nov 1, 2026NY Times/Siena717 LVD Sherrod Brown 49% · R Jon Husted 44%
Fielded Oct 28–Nov 1, 2026AtlasIntel1,801 LVD Sherrod Brown 51% · R Jon Husted 44%
Fielded Oct 29–Oct 30, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Sherrod Brown 49% · R Jon Husted 47%
Fielded Oct 26–Oct 29, 2026YouGov2,090 LVD Sherrod Brown 50% · R Jon Husted 48%
Fielded Oct 21–Oct 26, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 44%
Fielded Oct 22–Oct 24, 2026Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)469 LVD Sherrod Brown 46% · R Jon Husted 42%
Fielded Oct 20–Oct 23, 2026RedBox Research (D)2,998 LVD Sherrod Brown 46.9% · R Jon Husted 44.2% · O Other 8.8%
Fielded Oct 21–Oct 22, 2026InsiderAdvantageLV · size n/aD Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 44% · O Other 9%
Fielded Oct 15–Oct 19, 2026FOX News1,592 LVD Sherrod Brown 52% · R Jon Husted 47% · O Other 1%
Fielded Oct 15–Oct 18, 2026MaristLV · size n/aD Sherrod Brown 48% · R Jon Husted 44% · O Other 0%
Fielded Sep 26–Oct 18, 2026ActiVote400 LVD Sherrod Brown 49.8% · R Jon Husted 50.2% · O Other 0%
Fielded Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026Rasmussen Reports901 LVD Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 49% · O Other 1%
Fielded Oct 9–Oct 13, 2026Cook Political Report (New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group)959 LVD Sherrod Brown 49% · R Jon Husted 43% · O Other 1%
Fielded Sep 29–Oct 9, 2026Bowling Green/YouGov1,000 LVD Sherrod Brown 48% · R Jon Husted 42%
Fielded Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026co/efficient925 LVD Sherrod Brown 43% · R Jon Husted 44% · O Other 4%
Fielded Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026CNN/SSRS760 LVD Sherrod Brown 49% · R Jon Husted 43%
Fielded Sep 18–Sep 30, 2026YouGov3,780 LVD Sherrod Brown 49% · R Jon Husted 45%
Fielded Sep 21–Sep 30, 2026NY Times/Siena615 LVD Sherrod Brown 49% · R Jon Husted 46% · O Other 5%
Fielded Sep 28–Sep 29, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Sherrod Brown 44% · R Jon Husted 43% · O Other 13%
Fielded Sep 23–Sep 27, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Sherrod Brown 46.6% · R Jon Husted 44% · O Other 9%
Fielded Sep 24–Sep 27, 2026Marist1,298 RVD Sherrod Brown 51% · R Jon Husted 43% · O Other 6%
Fielded Sep 26–Sep 27, 2026Big Data Poll680 LVD Sherrod Brown 46.3% · R Jon Husted 42.6% · O Other 11.1%
Fielded Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026Rasmussen Reports1,115 LVD Sherrod Brown 46% · R Jon Husted 43% · O Other 11%
Fielded Sep 21–Sep 23, 2026Quantus Insights695 LVD Sherrod Brown 45.6% · R Jon Husted 45.3% · O Other 9.1%
Fielded Sep 17, 2026Trafalgar GroupLV · size n/aD Sherrod Brown 45% · R Jon Husted 42%
Fielded Sep 16, 2026Bowling Green/YouGovLV · size n/aD Sherrod Brown 48% · R Jon Husted 45%
Fielded Sep 10, 2026InsiderAdvantageLV · size n/aD Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 42%
Fielded Aug 29, 2026Abacus Data300 LVD Sherrod Brown 52% · R Jon Husted 46% · O Other 2%
Fielded Jul 29–Aug 4, 2026Tulchin Research600 LVD Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 43%
Fielded Jul 1, 2026Siena601 LVD Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 50%
Fielded Jun 25, 2026AARP800 LVD Sherrod Brown 48% · R Jon Husted 45%
Fielded Jun 2–Jun 4, 2026Tulchin Research600 LVD Sherrod Brown 46% · R Jon Husted 42%
Fielded May 28–Jun 1, 2026Fox News1,015 RVD Sherrod Brown 53% · R Jon Husted 45%
Fielded Apr 7–Apr 14, 2026YouGov1,000 RVD Sherrod Brown 47% · R Jon Husted 50%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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