Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Ohio House Forecast
‹ See all House racesOhio elects 15 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 4 districts as favoring Democrats, 9 as favoring Republicans and 2 as toss-ups.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 9 of 15 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 15
- Toss-ups
- 2
- Not rated Solid
- 7
- Districts with polls
- 5 of 15
- Closest district
- OH-09 D+0.1
District map
Ohio congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
OH-09D incumbent
Marcy Kaptur D51.5%
Derek Merrin R48.5%
D+0.1 model margin · 2 district polls
OH-07R incumbent
Brian Poindexter D52.4%
Max Miller R47.6%
D+0.5 model margin · 3 district polls
OH-15R incumbent
Don Leonard D33.6%
Mike Carey R66.4%
R+3.7 model margin · 3 district polls
OH-01D incumbent
Greg Landsman D68.8%
Eric Conroy R31.2%
D+4.6 model margin · 2 district polls
OH-10R incumbent
Kristina Knickerbocker D26.7%
Mike Turner R73.3%
R+5.9 model margin · 2 district polls
OH-08R incumbent
Vanessa Enoch D15.5%
Warren Davidson R84.5%
R+10.9 model margin · No district polls
OH-14R incumbent
Maria Jukic D9.3%
David Joyce R90.7%
R+14.2 model margin · No district polls
OH-09 · D incumbent · Model record under review
Ohio's 9th District
Kaptur 51.5% · Merrin 48.5% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+0.1
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- R+0.3
- Fundamentals
- D+0.4
- Matchup
- Marcy Kaptur vs. Derek Merrin
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 29.4%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+10.6
- Relative district lean
- R+9.1
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+1.2
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+0.8
- Full fundamentals
- D+0.4
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 35.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.8 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 15 Ohio districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-01 | Greg Landsman D vs. Eric Conroy R D incumbent | Lean D | D+4.6 | D 68.8% · R 31.2% | D+3.0 2 polls |
| OH-02 | Jen Mazzuckelli D vs. David Taylor R R incumbent | Solid R | R+33.6 | D 0.1% · R 99.9% | No district polls |
| OH-03 | Joyce Beatty D vs. Cleophus Dulaney R D incumbent | Solid D | D+51.2 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| OH-04 | Joshua Kolasinski D vs. Jim Jordan R R incumbent | Solid R | R+34.0 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| OH-05 | Brian Shaver D vs. Bob Latta R R incumbent | Solid R | R+16.6 | D 6.1% · R 93.9% | No district polls |
| OH-06 | Elizabeth Kirtley D vs. Michael Rulli R R incumbent | Solid R | R+26.0 | D 0.7% · R 99.3% | No district polls |
| OH-07 | Brian Poindexter D vs. Max Miller R R incumbent | Toss-up | D+0.5 | D 52.4% · R 47.6% | D+5.6 3 polls |
| OH-08 | Vanessa Enoch D vs. Warren Davidson R R incumbent | Likely R | R+10.9 | D 15.5% · R 84.5% | No district polls |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur D vs. Derek Merrin R D incumbent | Toss-up | D+0.1 | D 51.5% · R 48.5% | R+0.3 2 polls |
| OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker D vs. Mike Turner R R incumbent | Lean R | R+5.9 | D 26.7% · R 73.3% | R+5.8 2 polls |
| OH-11 | Shontel Brown D vs. Mike Kirchner R D incumbent | Solid D | D+66.1 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| OH-12 | Jerrad Christian D vs. Troy Balderson R R incumbent | Solid R | R+21.5 | D 2.3% · R 97.7% | No district polls |
| OH-13 | Emilia Sykes D vs. Carey Coleman R D incumbent | Solid D | D+16.0 | D 93.2% · R 6.8% | No district polls |
| OH-14 | Maria Jukic D vs. David Joyce R R incumbent | Likely R | R+14.2 | D 9.3% · R 90.7% | No district polls |
| OH-15 | Don Leonard D vs. Mike Carey R R incumbent | Lean R | R+3.7 | D 33.6% · R 66.4% | R+1.2 3 polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
12 included surveys across 5 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29–Oct 2, 2026 | OH-01 | Torchlight Strategies | 400.0 LV | D 45.8% · R 44.2% |
| Sep 22–Sep 24, 2026 | OH-15 | Hart Research Associates | 500.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 45.0% |
| Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026 | OH-09 | DCCC Targeting Team | 481.0 LV | D 48.0% · R 48.0% |
| Aug 21–Aug 24, 2026 | OH-01 | Quantus Insights | 509.0 LV | D 47.9% · R 44.6% |
| Aug 7–Aug 10, 2026 | OH-07 | Bedrock Polling | 866.0 LV | D 43.0% · R 35.0% |
| Aug 6–Aug 9, 2026 | OH-15 | Hart Research Associates | 401.0 LV | D 37.0% · R 41.0% |
| Aug 4, 2026 | OH-07 | Tavern Research | 635.0 LV | D 54.0% · R 46.0% |
| Jul 23, 2026 | OH-10 | Global Strategy Group | 700.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 45.0% |
| Jul 12, 2026 | OH-10 | FM3 Research | 535.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 48.0% |
| Jun 23–Jun 25, 2026 | OH-15 | Hart Research Associates | 550.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 45.0% |
| Jun 16–Jun 20, 2026 | OH-07 | GBAO | 500.0 LV | D 43.0% · R 44.0% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | OH-09 | McLaughlin & Associates | 400.0 LV | D 43.0% · R 47.0% |