COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Oklahoma House Forecast

‹ See all House races

Oklahoma elects 5 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 0 districts as favoring Democrats, 5 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Republicans lead in 5 of 5 districts

  • Likely R 1
  • Solid R 4

Forecast summary

Seats
5
Toss-ups
0
Not rated Solid
1
Districts with polls
1 of 5
Closest district
OK-05 R+13.0

District map

Oklahoma congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

All races

Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.

OK-05R incumbent
Likely R
Jena Nelson D7.5%
Stephanie Bice R92.5%

R+13.0 model margin · 1 district poll

OK-01R incumbent
Solid R
John Croisant D4.5%
Mark Tedford R95.5%

R+17.9 model margin · No district polls

OK-04R incumbent
Solid R
Mitchell Jacob D0.4%
Tom Cole R99.6%

R+28.7 model margin · No district polls

OK-03R incumbent
Solid R
Suzie Byrd D<0.1%
Frank Lucas R>99.9%

R+39.7 model margin · No district polls

OK-02R incumbent
Solid R
Brandon Wade D<0.1%
Josh Brecheen R>99.9%

R+48.2 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

OK-05 · R incumbent

Oklahoma's 5th District

Nelson 7.5% · Bice 92.5% chance of winning

Model margin
R+13.0
Rating
Likely R
Polling average
R+7.0
Fundamentals
R+12.3
Matchup
Jena Nelson vs. Stephanie Bice

How the forecast is built

Polling average R+7.0 1 district poll
Fundamentals R+12.3 Inputs listed below
Projected margin R+13.0 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 21.9%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
R+17.7
Relative district lean
R+17.8
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
R+2.4
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
R+9.5
Full fundamentals
R+12.3
Fundamentals blend weight
50.0%
Total uncertainty
±9.2 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Polling inputs

District polls

1 included survey across 1 district, newest first.

Field datesDistrictPollsterSampleResults
Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026OK-05GBAO500.0 LVD 43.0% · R 48.0%

‹ All 435 House districts