Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
Oregon Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesSenator Jeff Merkley is seeking another term against State Senator David Brock Smith. Oregon’s politics divide sharply between its populous northwest and its more conservative interior, a split that has shaped the state’s statewide contests for years.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+25.30
- Rating
- Safe D
- Polling average
- No average
- Fundamentals
- D+25.30
- Matchup
- Jeff Merkley vs. David Brock Smith
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
No average
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.