Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Oregon House Forecast
‹ See all House racesOregon elects 6 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 5 districts as favoring Democrats, 1 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 5 of 6 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 6
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 0
- Districts with polls
- 0 of 6
- Closest district
- OR-05 D+18.5
District map
Oregon congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
OR-05 · D incumbent
Oregon's 5th District
Bynum 96.2% · Adair 3.8% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+18.5
- Rating
- Solid D
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- D+17.9
- Matchup
- Janelle Bynum vs. Patti Adair
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+8.5
- Relative district lean
- D+8.3
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+16.6
- Full fundamentals
- D+17.9
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 6 Oregon districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici D vs. Barbara Kahl R D incumbent | Solid D | D+51.3 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| OR-02 | Chris Beck D vs. Cliff Bentz R R incumbent | Solid R | R+21.9 | D 1.6% · R 98.4% | No district polls |
| OR-03 | Maxine Dexter D vs. Loran Ayles R D incumbent | Solid D | D+57.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| OR-04 | Val Hoyle D vs. Monique DeSpain R D incumbent | Solid D | D+22.2 | D 98.5% · R 1.5% | No district polls |
| OR-05 | Janelle Bynum D vs. Patti Adair R D incumbent | Solid D | D+18.5 | D 96.2% · R 3.8% | No district polls |
| OR-06 | Andrea Salinas D vs. David Russ R D incumbent | Solid D | D+21.4 | D 98.2% · R 1.8% | No district polls |