Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Pennsylvania House Forecast
‹ See all House racesPennsylvania elects 17 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 8 districts as favoring Democrats, 6 as favoring Republicans and 3 as toss-ups.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 10 of 17 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 17
- Toss-ups
- 3
- Not rated Solid
- 4
- Districts with polls
- 4 of 17
- Closest district
- PA-01 R+1.3
District map
Pennsylvania congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
PA-01R incumbent
Bob Harvie D44.2%
Brian Fitzpatrick R55.8%
R+1.3 model margin · 6 district polls
PA-08R incumbent
Paige Cognetti D57.8%
Rob Bresnahan R42.2%
D+1.7 model margin · 3 district polls
PA-10R incumbent
Janelle Stelson D63.3%
Scott Perry R36.7%
D+2.3 model margin · 5 district polls
PA-07R incumbent
Bob Brooks D67.2%
Ryan Mackenzie R32.8%
D+3.8 model margin · 2 district polls
PA-01 · R incumbent
Pennsylvania's 1st District
Harvie 44.2% · Fitzpatrick 55.8% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+1.3
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- R+3.3
- Fundamentals
- D+2.5
- Matchup
- Bob Harvie vs. Brian Fitzpatrick
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 48.3%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+0.3
- Relative district lean
- D+1.3
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+9.6
- Full fundamentals
- D+2.5
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±9.2 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 17 Pennsylvania districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | Bob Harvie D vs. Brian Fitzpatrick R R incumbent | Toss-up | R+1.3 | D 44.2% · R 55.8% | R+3.3 6 polls |
| PA-02 | Brendan Boyle D vs. Jessica Arriaga R D incumbent | Solid D | D+51.5 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| PA-03 | Chris Rabb D vs. No Republican nominee R Open | Solid D | D+86.4 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| PA-04 | Madeleine Dean D vs. Aurora Stuski R D incumbent | Solid D | D+28.9 | D 99.7% · R 0.3% | No district polls |
| PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon D vs. Nicholas Manganaro R D incumbent | Solid D | D+41.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan D vs. Marty Young R D incumbent | Solid D | D+24.0 | D 98.9% · R 1.1% | No district polls |
| PA-07 | Bob Brooks D vs. Ryan Mackenzie R R incumbent | Lean D | D+3.8 | D 67.2% · R 32.8% | D+4.4 2 polls |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti D vs. Rob Bresnahan R R incumbent | Toss-up | D+1.7 | D 57.8% · R 42.2% | D+1.5 3 polls |
| PA-09 | Rachel Wallace D vs. Dan Meuser R R incumbent | Solid R | R+32.2 | D 0.1% · R 99.9% | No district polls |
| PA-10 | Janelle Stelson D vs. Scott Perry R R incumbent | Toss-up | D+2.3 | D 63.3% · R 36.7% | D+3.1 5 polls |
| PA-11 | Nancy Mannion D vs. Lloyd Smucker R R incumbent | Solid R | R+17.4 | D 4.9% · R 95.1% | No district polls |
| PA-12 | Summer Lee D vs. James Hayes R D incumbent | Solid D | D+28.3 | D 99.7% · R 0.3% | No district polls |
| PA-13 | Beth Farnham D vs. John Joyce R R incumbent | Solid R | R+39.9 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| PA-14 | Alan Bradstock D vs. Guy Reschenthaler R R incumbent | Solid R | R+26.2 | D 0.8% · R 99.2% | No district polls |
| PA-15 | Ray Bilger D vs. Glenn Thompson R R incumbent | Solid R | R+33.0 | D 0.1% · R 99.9% | No district polls |
| PA-16 | Justin Wagner D vs. Mike Kelly R R incumbent | Solid R | R+18.1 | D 4.5% · R 95.5% | No district polls |
| PA-17 | Chris Deluzio D vs. Tony Guy R D incumbent | Solid D | D+18.1 | D 95.9% · R 4.1% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
16 included surveys across 4 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5–Oct 11, 2026 | PA-10 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 300.0 LV | D 49.0% · R 46.0% · O 1.0% |
| Oct 1–Oct 8, 2026 | PA-01 | Global Strategy Group | 1,032.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 46.0% |
| Sep 9–Sep 20, 2026 | PA-10 | Franklin & Marshall College | 378.0 RV | D 47.0% · R 44.0% |
| Sep 9–Sep 20, 2026 | PA-07 | Franklin & Marshall College | 350.0 RV | D 45.0% · R 40.0% |
| Sep 11–Sep 14, 2026 | PA-01 | Public Opinion Strategies | 400.0 RV | D 42.0% · R 51.0% |
| Aug 19–Aug 23, 2026 | PA-01 | GQR | 400.0 LV | D 48.0% · R 49.0% |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PA-01 | Global Strategy Group | 500.0 LV | D 43.0% · R 47.0% |
| Jun 29–Jul 2, 2026 | PA-07 | GBAO | 550.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 43.0% |
| Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 | PA-08 | Lake Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 45.0% |
| Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026 | PA-08 | Impact Research | 500.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 45.0% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | PA-10 | Normington Petts | 400.0 RV | D 51.0% · R 45.0% |
| Mar 22, 2026 | PA-01 | Global Strategy Group | 400.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 48.0% |
| Nov 18–Nov 19, 2025 | PA-10 | Public Policy Polling | 549.0 RV | D 48.0% · R 44.0% |
| Oct 10–Oct 11, 2025 | PA-01 | Public Policy Polling | 585.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 41.0% |
| Aug 27–Aug 28, 2025 | PA-08 | Public Policy Polling | 615.0 RV | D 45.0% · R 43.0% |
| Jul 10–Jul 11, 2025 | PA-10 | Public Policy Polling | 559.0 RV | D 46.0% · R 43.0% |