COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026

Rhode Island Senate Forecast

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Senator Jack Reed, one of the Senate’s most senior Democrats, is seeking another term against Raymond Mackay. Rhode Island’s small size makes its politics feel close at hand, while its strong Democratic lean gives Republicans a narrow route to an upset.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+25.96
Rating
Safe D
Polling average
D+22.92
Fundamentals
D+27.42
Matchup
Jack Reed vs. Raymond Mackay

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Polling average
D+22.92

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Aug 20–Aug 24, 2026UNH750 LVD Jack Reed 51% · R McKay 31%
Fielded Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026UNH664 LVD Jack Reed 52% · R McKay 35%
Fielded Apr 16–Apr 20, 2026UNH559 LVD Jack Reed 52% · R McKay 34%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

See all Senate races