Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Rhode Island House Forecast
‹ See all House racesRhode Island elects 2 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 2 districts as favoring Democrats, 0 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 2 of 2 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 2
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 0
- Districts with polls
- 2 of 2
- Closest district
- RI-02 D+20.6
District map
Rhode Island congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
All races
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
RI-02 · D incumbent · Model record under review
Rhode Island's 2nd District
Magaziner 98.3% · TBD 1.7% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+20.6
- Rating
- Solid D
- Polling average
- D+15.5
- Fundamentals
- D+23.7
- Matchup
- Seth Magaziner vs. Republican nominee TBD
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 37.3%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+6.8
- Relative district lean
- D+8.6
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+16.9
- Full fundamentals
- D+23.7
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±9.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Polling inputs
District polls
2 included surveys across 2 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8–Oct 11, 2026 | RI-02 | Emerson College | 406.0 LV | D 55.2% · R 39.1% |
| Oct 8–Oct 11, 2026 | RI-01 | Emerson College | 394.0 LV | D 53.9% · R 25.9% · O 6.1% |