Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
South Carolina Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesPediatrician Annie Andrews is running against Darline Graham Nordone in a state where Republicans have held the advantage in federal elections. South Carolina’s growing suburbs offer Democrats opportunity, though the statewide map remains a difficult one.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+5.40
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+2.74
- Fundamentals
- R+9.97
- Matchup
- Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham Nordone
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+2.74
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 23–Sep 25, 2026 | Trafalgar Group | 1,087 LV | D Annie Andrews 42% · R Darline Graham Nordone 43% · O Undecided / other 15% |
| Fielded Sep 15, 2026 | Rasmussen Reports | Not reported LV | D Annie Andrews 43% · R Darline Graham Nordone 48% |
| Fielded Sep 10, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage | Not reported LV | D Annie Andrews 43% · R Darline Graham Nordone 45% |
| Fielded Aug 29, 2026 | Abacus Data | 300 LV | D Annie Andrews 42% · R Darline Graham Nordone 55% · O Other 3% |
| Fielded Aug 18–Aug 24, 2026 | Impact Research (D) | 700 LV | D Annie Andrews 41% · R Graham 41% · O Whitener 5% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.