Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

South Carolina House Forecast

South Carolina elects 7 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 6 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Republicans lead in 6 of 7 districts

Solid D 1
Lean R 1
Likely R 1
Solid R 4

Seats: 7
Toss-ups: 0
Not rated Solid: 2
Districts with polls: 2 of 7
Closest district: SC-01 R+3.6

District map

South Carolina congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

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Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

Races to watch

Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.

SC-01Open

Lean R

Nancy Lacore D31.0%

Jenny Honeycutt R69.0%

R+3.6 model margin · 4 district polls

R+12.1 model margin · No district polls

SC-05Open

Solid R

Mallory Dittmer D6.7%

Wes Climer R93.3%

R+16.0 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

District

SC-01 · Open

South Carolina's 1st District

Lacore 31.0% · Honeycutt 69.0% chance of winning

Model margin: R+3.6
Rating: Lean R
Polling average: R+3.5
Fundamentals: R+4.4
Matchup: Nancy Lacore vs. Jenny Honeycutt

How the forecast is built

Polling average R+3.5 4 district polls

Fundamentals R+4.4 Inputs listed below

Projected margin R+3.6 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 52.6%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin: R+13.0
Relative district lean: R+12.0
Generic ballot: D+8.3
National environment: D+8.3
Incumbency: None
Candidate: None
Fundraising: None
Simple fundamentals: R+3.7
Full fundamentals: R+4.4
Fundamentals blend weight: 50.0%
Total uncertainty: ±7.1 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Every district

All 7 South Carolina districts

South Carolina House districts with rating, model margin, chance of winning and polling
District	Matchup	Rating	Model margin	Chance of winning	Polling average
SC-01	Nancy Lacore D vs. Jenny Honeycutt R Open	Lean R	R+3.6	D 31.0% · R 69.0%	R+3.5 4 polls
SC-02	Zyon Khalifa D vs. Joe Wilson R R incumbent	Likely R	R+12.1	D 12.9% · R 87.1%	No district polls
SC-03	Eunice Lehmacher D vs. Sheri Biggs R R incumbent	Solid R	R+37.2	D <0.1% · R >99.9%	No district polls
SC-04	Courtney McClain D vs. William Timmons R R incumbent	Solid R	R+16.9	D 5.5% · R 94.5%	No district polls
SC-05	Mallory Dittmer D vs. Wes Climer R Open	Solid R	R+16.0	D 6.7% · R 93.3%	No district polls
SC-06	Jim Clyburn D vs. John Peterson R D incumbent	Solid D	D+36.3	D 99.9% · R 0.1%	No district polls
SC-07	John Vincent D vs. Russell Fry R R incumbent	Solid R	R+18.4	D 4.3% · R 95.7%	R+4.0 1 poll

Polling inputs

District polls

5 included surveys across 2 districts, newest first.

Field dates	District	Pollster	Sample	Results
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026	SC-01	GQR	400.0 LV	D 48.0% · R 45.0%
Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026	SC-01	co/efficient	837.0 LV	D 40.0% · R 46.0%
Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026	SC-01	Public Policy Polling	536.0 RV	D 40.0% · R 41.0%
Jul 28, 2026	SC-07	Blueprint Polling	557.0 LV	D 37.0% · R 41.0%
Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026	SC-01	GQR	400.0 LV	D 41.0% · R 43.0%

‹ All 435 House districts