Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Tennessee House Forecast
‹ See all House racesTennessee elects 9 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 0 districts as favoring Democrats, 9 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 9 of 9 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 9
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 3
- Districts with polls
- 2 of 9
- Closest district
- TN-09 R+12.5
District map
Tennessee congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
TN-09 · Open · Model record under review
Tennessee's 9th District
Pearson 9.6% · Taylor 90.4% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+12.5
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+4.0
- Fundamentals
- R+11.3
- Matchup
- Justin Pearson vs. Brent Taylor
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 16.7%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+21.1
- Relative district lean
- R+19.6
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- None
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+11.3
- Full fundamentals
- R+11.3
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 35.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±9.6 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 9 Tennessee districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN-01 | Kristi Burke D vs. Diana Harshbarger R R incumbent | Solid R | R+49.2 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| TN-02 | Michaela Barnett D vs. Tim Burchett R R incumbent | Solid R | R+25.3 | D 0.8% · R 99.2% | No district polls |
| TN-03 | Anna Golladay D vs. Chuck Fleischmann R R incumbent | Solid R | R+27.1 | D 0.6% · R 99.4% | No district polls |
| TN-04 | Victoria Broderick D vs. Scott DesJarlais R R incumbent | Solid R | R+16.7 | D 6.0% · R 94.0% | No district polls |
| TN-05 | Chaz Molder D vs. Charlie Hatcher R Open | Likely R | R+13.3 | D 8.3% · R 91.7% | R+6.0 2 polls |
| TN-06 | Mike Croley D vs. Johnny Garrett R Open | Solid R | R+17.7 | D 4.8% · R 95.2% | No district polls |
| TN-07 | Darden Copeland D vs. Matt Van Epps R R incumbent | Solid R | R+15.7 | D 6.7% · R 93.3% | No district polls |
| TN-08 | Heidi Kuhn D vs. David Kustoff R R incumbent | Likely R | R+14.1 | D 9.1% · R 90.9% | No district polls |
| TN-09 | Justin Pearson D vs. Brent Taylor R Open | Likely R | R+12.5 | D 9.6% · R 90.4% | R+4.0 1 poll |
Polling inputs
District polls
3 included surveys across 2 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | TN-05 | Impact Research | 552.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 46.0% |
| Sep 1–Sep 3, 2026 | TN-09 | Hart Research Associates | 400.0 LV | D 44.0% · R 48.0% |
| Aug 19–Aug 24, 2026 | TN-05 | Impact Research | 500.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 48.0% |