COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 23, 2026 · model inputs through September 22, 2026 · latest included poll: September 20, 2026

Texas Senate Forecast

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The Marist University poll fielded September 17–20 (1,139 registered voters; margin of error ±4.4 points) found James Talarico 50%, Ken Paxton 44%, other 2%, and undecided/refused 4%. With that poll included and older polls reweighted through September 22, the polling average moved from D+2.84 to D+3.13 and the projected margin moved D+1.07 → D+1.23 (D +0.17 points). The race remains Toss-up. The county map is recalibrated to the September 22 estimate; county baselines and geometry are retained.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+1.23
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
D+3.13
Fundamentals
R+5.50
Matchup
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

26 polls included in the workbook average. Newest first; latest included field date: September 20, 2026.

Polling average
D+3.13

Field dates Pollster Sample Results Model treatment
Sep 17–20, 2026Marist University1,139 RVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 44% · O Other 2% · U Undecided / refused 4%Included in the Senate polling average. Marist reports other 2% and undecided/refused 4%; MOE ±4.4 points.
Sep 8–10, 2026NBC News/Mason-Dixon625 LVD James Talarico 46% · R Ken Paxton 43% · O Other / undecided 11%Included in the Senate polling average.
Sep 15–19, 2026Texas Southern University / YouGov1,800 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 46% · O Ted Brown / undecided 7%Included in the Senate polling average.
2026-09-17–2026-09-17Emerson*— LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 46%Included in model
2026-09-17–2026-09-17Texas A&M/Siena— LVD James Talarico 49% · R Ken Paxton 43%Included in model
2026-09-15–2026-09-15Telemundo/Mason-Dixon*— LVD James Talarico 46% · R Ken Paxton 43%Included in model
2026-09-10–2026-09-10Fabrizio/Anzalone— LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 44%Included in model
2026-09-10–2026-09-10InsiderAdvantage*— LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 46%Included in model
2026-08-27–2026-09-04Univision/YouGov1000 RVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 43% · O Other 9%Included in model
Fielded August 24–26, 2026Overton Insights1167 LVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 50%Existing Overton/TPPF row corrected to the cumulative-with-leaners 50–50 result; included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 21–August 24, 2026TX Public Opinion Research1000 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 42% · O Other 1%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 5–August 13, 2026University of Texas1200 RVD James Talarico 42% · R Ken Paxton 39% · O Other 3%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 9–August 10, 2026Emerson1000 LVD James Talarico 46% · R Ken Paxton 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
August 7, 2026Texas Pulse Poll617 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 43%Included in the Senate polling average.
August 4, 2026Texas Southern University1200 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded July 15–July 31, 2026254 Labs/YouGov Blue1001 RVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
July 31, 2026Wedgewood Polls800 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
July 30, 2026Fox News1006 RVD James Talarico 51% · R Ken Paxton 48%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded July 27–July 30, 2026NYT/Sienna College619 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 43%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded July 27–July 30, 2026TSU/YouGov1200 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
July 28, 2026TX Public Opinion Research1048 LVD James Talarico 45% · R Ken Paxton 40%Included in the Senate polling average.
June 30, 2026A2 Insights618 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
June 30, 2026NYT/Sienna College656 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
June 23, 2026University of Texas1200 RVD James Talarico 42% · R Ken Paxton 43%Included in the Senate polling average.
June 9, 2026Texas Pulse Poll807 LVD James Talarico 46% · R Ken Paxton 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
June 5, 2026Quantus Insights800 LVD James Talarico 43% · R Ken Paxton 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded May 27–May 28, 2026TX Public Opinion Research1670 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 44% · O Other 1%Included in the Senate polling average.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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