COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne
Final forecast · Nov. 3

Updated November 3, 2026 · model inputs through November 3, 2026

Texas Senate Forecast

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James Talarico, a former middle-school teacher and state legislator, is challenging Attorney General Ken Paxton for a Senate seat. Texas has been reliably Republican for decades, but its growth and changing suburbs have kept the question of Democratic competitiveness alive.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+1.51
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
D+3.01
Fundamentals
R+5.09
Matchup
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton

FORECAST HISTORY

Chance of winning over time

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Published model margins by release date.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Included surveys, newest first.

Polling average
D+3.01

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 2, 2026Research Co.450 LVD James Talarico 49% · R Ken Paxton 46%
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 1, 2026Trafalgar Group1,089 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 48% · O Other 2.4%
Fielded Oct 27–Nov 1, 2026NY Times/Siena1,215 LVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 43%
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 1, 2026Emerson College500 LVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 48%
Fielded Oct 28–Nov 1, 2026Atlas Intel1,678 AD James Talarico 52% · R Ken Paxton 46% · O Other 2%
Fielded Oct 26–Oct 29, 2026YouGov2,141 LVD James Talarico 51% · R Ken Paxton 47%
Fielded Oct 26–Oct 28, 2026Quantus Insights1,221 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 49% · O Other 1.4%
Fielded Oct 22–Oct 28, 2026ActiVote400 LVD James Talarico 52.1% · R Ken Paxton 47.9%
Fielded Oct 20–Oct 27, 2026CNN/SSRS923 LVD James Talarico 49% · R Ken Paxton 43%
Fielded Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026A2 Insights631 LVD James Talarico 50.2% · R Ken Paxton 47.2%
Fielded Oct 21–Oct 25, 2026Texas Southern University2,000 LVD James Talarico 49% · R Ken Paxton 47%
Fielded Oct 13–Oct 21, 2026Univision/YouGov1,000 RVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 45%
Fielded Oct 20–Oct 21, 2026Rasmussen Reports965 LVD James Talarico 45% · R Ken Paxton 45% · O Other 10%
Fielded Oct 15–Oct 19, 2026FOX News1,398 LVD James Talarico 49% · R Ken Paxton 49%
Fielded Oct 17–Oct 19, 2026Emerson College/Nexstar1,000 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 46% · O Other 1%
Fielded Oct 15–Oct 18, 2026Texas Public Opinion ResearchLV · size n/aD James Talarico 51% · R Ken Paxton 47% · O Other 2%
Fielded Oct 10–Oct 14, 2026University of Houston Hobby School2,000 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 46% · O Other 3%
Fielded Oct 13–Oct 14, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 49%
Fielded Sep 30–Oct 14, 2026ActiVote400 LVD James Talarico 51.9% · R Ken Paxton 48.1%
Fielded Oct 9–Oct 13, 2026Cook Political Report (New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group)934 LVD James Talarico 49% · R Ken Paxton 44% · O Other 1%
Fielded Oct 9–Oct 11, 2026Quantus Insights839 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 47%
Fielded Oct 8–Oct 11, 2026MaristLV · size n/aD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 45% · O Other 2%
Fielded Oct 6–Oct 8, 2026Trafalgar Group1,086 LVD James Talarico 47.1% · R Ken Paxton 43.6% · O Other 1.8%
Fielded Oct 5–Oct 8, 2026ReconMR/Siena617 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 44%
Fielded Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026YouGov3,625 LVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 44%
Fielded Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026University of Texas861 LVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 47% · O Other 1%
Fielded Sep 21–Sep 30, 2026NY Times/Siena615 LVD James Talarico 51% · R Ken Paxton 45% · O Other 4%
Fielded Sep 28–Sep 29, 2026Rasmussen Reports1,128 LVD James Talarico 46% · R Ken Paxton 45% · O Other 9%
Fielded Sep 18–Sep 28, 2026UMass Lowell/YouGov850 LVD James Talarico 45% · R Ken Paxton 45%
Fielded Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026Fox News881 LVD James Talarico 51% · R Ken Paxton 49% · O Other 0%
Fielded Sep 24–Sep 26, 2026Big Data Poll698 LVD James Talarico 46.8% · R Ken Paxton 44.9% · O Other 8.3%
Fielded Sep 19–Sep 22, 2026TX Public Opinion Research1,007 LVD James Talarico 49% · R Ken Paxton 44% · O Other 6%
Fielded Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026Marist University1,139 RVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 44% · O Other 6%
Fielded Sep 15–Sep 19, 2026Texas Southern University / YouGov1,800 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 46% · O Other 7%
Fielded Sep 15–Sep 17, 2026Trafalgar Group1,079 LVD James Talarico 46.4% · R Ken Paxton 45.2% · O Other 8.4%
Fielded Sep 17, 2026Texas A&M/SienaLV · size n/aD James Talarico 49% · R Ken Paxton 43%
Fielded Sep 17, 2026EmersonLV · size n/aD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 46%
Fielded Sep 15, 2026Telemundo/Mason-DixonLV · size n/aD James Talarico 46% · R Ken Paxton 43%
Fielded Sep 10, 2026Fabrizio/AnzaloneLV · size n/aD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 44%
Fielded Aug 27–Sep 4, 2026Univision/YouGov1,000 RVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 43% · O Other 9%
Fielded Aug 24–Aug 26, 2026Overton Insights1,167 LVD James Talarico 50% · R Ken Paxton 50%
Fielded Aug 21–Aug 24, 2026TX Public Opinion Research1,000 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 42% · O Other 1%
Fielded Aug 5–Aug 13, 2026University of Texas1,200 RVD James Talarico 42% · R Ken Paxton 39% · O Other 3%
Fielded Aug 9–Aug 10, 2026Emerson1,000 LVD James Talarico 46% · R Ken Paxton 47%
Fielded Aug 7, 2026Texas Pulse Poll617 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 43%
Fielded Aug 4, 2026Texas Southern University1,200 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 45%
Fielded Jul 15–Jul 31, 2026254 Labs/YouGov Blue1,001 RVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 45%
Fielded Jul 27–Jul 30, 2026TSU/YouGov1,200 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 45%
Fielded Jul 27–Jul 30, 2026NYT/Sienna College619 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 43%
Fielded Jul 30, 2026Fox News1,006 RVD James Talarico 51% · R Ken Paxton 48%
Fielded Jul 28, 2026TX Public Opinion Research1,048 LVD James Talarico 45% · R Ken Paxton 40%
Fielded Jun 30, 2026NYT/Sienna College656 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 47%
Fielded Jun 30, 2026A2 Insights618 LVD James Talarico 48% · R Ken Paxton 46%
Fielded Jun 23, 2026University of Texas1,200 RVD James Talarico 42% · R Ken Paxton 43%
Fielded Jun 9, 2026Texas Pulse Poll807 LVD James Talarico 46% · R Ken Paxton 46%
Fielded Jun 5, 2026Quantus Insights800 LVD James Talarico 43% · R Ken Paxton 45%
Fielded May 27–May 28, 2026TX Public Opinion Research1,670 LVD James Talarico 47% · R Ken Paxton 44% · O Other 1%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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