Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Texas House Forecast
‹ See all House racesTexas elects 38 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 9 districts as favoring Democrats, 26 as favoring Republicans and 3 as toss-ups.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 28 of 38 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 38
- Toss-ups
- 3
- Not rated Solid
- 13
- Districts with polls
- 8 of 38
- Closest district
- TX-15 R+0.4
District map
Texas congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
TX-15R incumbent
Bobby Pulido D48.8%
Monica De La Cruz R51.2%
R+0.4 model margin · 4 district polls
TX-35Open
Johnny Garcia D45.3%
Carlos De La Cruz R54.7%
R+1.1 model margin · 1 district poll
TX-34D incumbent
Vicente Gonzalez D57.9%
Eric Flores R42.1%
D+1.8 model margin · 3 district polls
TX-28D incumbent
Henry Cuellar D68.6%
Tano Tijerina R31.4%
D+4.4 model margin · 2 district polls
TX-23Open
Katy Padilla Stout D25.9%
Brandon Herrera R74.1%
R+5.9 model margin · 1 district poll
TX-09Open
Leticia Gutierrez D15.3%
Alex Mealer R84.7%
R+7.5 model margin · 2 district polls
TX-32Open
Dan Barrios D14.8%
Jace Yarbrough R85.2%
R+11.2 model margin · No district polls
TX-24R incumbent
Kevin Burge D13.5%
Beth Van Duyne R86.5%
R+11.7 model margin · No district polls
TX-10Open
Caitlin Rourk D7.2%
Chris Gober R92.8%
R+13.2 model margin · 1 district poll
TX-02Open
Shaun Finnie D6.3%
Steve Toth R93.7%
R+14.4 model margin · 1 district poll
TX-38Open
Melissa McDonough D9.4%
Jon Bonck R90.6%
R+14.4 model margin · No district polls
TX-21Open
Kristin Hook D8.0%
Mark Teixeira R92.0%
R+14.6 model margin · No district polls
TX-15 · R incumbent · Model record under review
Texas's 15th District
Pulido 48.8% · Cruz 51.2% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+0.4
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- D+6.2
- Fundamentals
- R+6.4
- Matchup
- Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 46.1%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+17.9
- Relative district lean
- R+13.5
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+1.2
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+5.2
- Full fundamentals
- R+6.4
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 35.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.3 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 38 Texas districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-01 | Yolanda Prince D vs. Nathaniel Moran R R incumbent | Solid R | R+41.0 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| TX-02 | Shaun Finnie D vs. Steve Toth R Open | Likely R | R+14.4 | D 6.3% · R 93.7% | R+9.0 1 poll |
| TX-03 | Evan Hunt D vs. Keith Self R R incumbent | Solid R | R+16.4 | D 6.2% · R 93.8% | No district polls |
| TX-04 | Jason Pearce D vs. Pat Fallon R R incumbent | Solid R | R+17.1 | D 5.9% · R 94.1% | No district polls |
| TX-05 | Chelsey Hockett D vs. Lance Gooden R R incumbent | Solid R | R+15.2 | D 7.7% · R 92.3% | No district polls |
| TX-06 | Danny Minton D vs. Jake Ellzey R R incumbent | Solid R | R+16.5 | D 5.7% · R 94.3% | No district polls |
| TX-07 | Lizzie Fletcher D vs. Alexander Hale R D incumbent | Solid D | D+35.1 | D 99.9% · R 0.1% | No district polls |
| TX-08 | Laura Jones D vs. Jessica Hart Steinmann R Open | Solid R | R+17.8 | D 4.6% · R 95.4% | No district polls |
| TX-09 | Leticia Gutierrez D vs. Alex Mealer R Open | Likely R | R+7.5 | D 15.3% · R 84.7% | R+6.5 2 polls |
| TX-10 | Caitlin Rourk D vs. Chris Gober R Open | Likely R | R+13.2 | D 7.2% · R 92.8% | R+9.0 1 poll |
| TX-11 | Claire Reynolds D vs. August Pfluger R R incumbent | Solid R | R+26.3 | D 0.6% · R 99.4% | No district polls |
| TX-12 | Angela Rodriguez Prilliman D vs. Craig Goldman R R incumbent | Solid R | R+16.6 | D 5.9% · R 94.1% | No district polls |
| TX-13 | Mark Nair D vs. Ronny Jackson R R incumbent | Solid R | R+38.8 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| TX-14 | Thurman Bartie D vs. Randy Weber R R incumbent | Solid R | R+17.6 | D 4.7% · R 95.3% | No district polls |
| TX-15 | Bobby Pulido D vs. Monica De La Cruz R R incumbent | Toss-up | R+0.4 | D 48.8% · R 51.2% | D+6.2 4 polls |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar D vs. Adam Bauman R D incumbent | Solid D | D+31.4 | D 99.8% · R 0.2% | No district polls |
| TX-17 | Casey Shepard D vs. Pete Sessions R R incumbent | Solid R | R+15.1 | D 7.6% · R 92.4% | No district polls |
| TX-18 | Christian Menefee D vs. Ronald Whitfield R D incumbent | Solid D | D+66.8 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| TX-19 | Kyle Rable D vs. Tom Sell R Open | Solid R | R+42.0 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro D vs. Edgardo Rafael Baez R D incumbent | Solid D | D+41.2 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| TX-21 | Kristin Hook D vs. Mark Teixeira R Open | Likely R | R+14.6 | D 8.0% · R 92.0% | No district polls |
| TX-22 | Marquette Greene-Scott D vs. Trever Nehls R Open | Likely R | R+14.9 | D 8.4% · R 91.6% | No district polls |
| TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout D vs. Brandon Herrera R Open | Lean R | R+5.9 | D 25.9% · R 74.1% | R+4.0 1 poll |
| TX-24 | Kevin Burge D vs. Beth Van Duyne R R incumbent | Likely R | R+11.7 | D 13.5% · R 86.5% | No district polls |
| TX-25 | Dione Sims D vs. Roger Williams R R incumbent | Solid R | R+16.4 | D 6.5% · R 93.5% | No district polls |
| TX-26 | Steven Shook D vs. Brandon Gill R R incumbent | Solid R | R+16.8 | D 5.5% · R 94.5% | No district polls |
| TX-27 | Tanya Lloyd D vs. Michael Cloud R R incumbent | Solid R | R+15.3 | D 7.8% · R 92.2% | No district polls |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar D vs. Tano Tijerina R D incumbent | Lean D | D+4.4 | D 68.6% · R 31.4% | D+7.9 2 polls |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia D vs. Martha Fierro R D incumbent | Solid D | D+43.4 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| TX-30 | Frederick Haynes III D vs. Everett Jackson R Open | Solid D | D+58.1 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| TX-31 | Justin Early D vs. John Carter R R incumbent | Solid R | R+15.7 | D 6.8% · R 93.2% | No district polls |
| TX-32 | Dan Barrios D vs. Jace Yarbrough R Open | Likely R | R+11.2 | D 14.8% · R 85.2% | No district polls |
| TX-33 | Colin Allred D vs. Patrick Gillespie R Open | Solid D | D+44.4 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez D vs. Eric Flores R D incumbent | Toss-up | D+1.8 | D 57.9% · R 42.1% | D+1.9 3 polls |
| TX-35 | Johnny Garcia D vs. Carlos De La Cruz R Open | Toss-up | R+1.1 | D 45.3% · R 54.7% | R+1.0 1 poll |
| TX-36 | Rhonda Hart D vs. Brian Babin R R incumbent | Solid R | R+17.3 | D 5.4% · R 94.6% | No district polls |
| TX-37 | Greg Casar D vs. Lauren Peña R D incumbent | Solid D | D+67.5 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| TX-38 | Melissa McDonough D vs. Jon Bonck R Open | Likely R | R+14.4 | D 9.4% · R 90.6% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
15 included surveys across 8 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3–Oct 7, 2026 | TX-09 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 677.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 48.0% |
| Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026 | TX-02 | Impact Research | 501.0 LV | D 37.0% · R 46.0% |
| Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026 | TX-15 | Normington Petts | 400.0 LV | D 54.0% · R 41.0% |
| Sep 18–Sep 22, 2026 | TX-10 | Change Research | 613.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 48.0% |
| Sep 18–Sep 19, 2026 | TX-09 | Public Policy Polling | 560.0 RV | D 39.0% · R 45.0% |
| Aug 27–Aug 31, 2026 | TX-35 | Normington, Petts & Associates | LV | D 44.0% · R 45.0% |
| Aug 18–Aug 22, 2026 | TX-15 | Texas Southern University | 700.0 LV | D 50.0% · R 45.0% |
| Aug 18–Aug 22, 2026 | TX-34 | Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 700.0 LV | D 45.0% · R 42.0% |
| Aug 18–Aug 22, 2026 | TX-28 | Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 600.0 LV | D 45.0% · R 34.0% |
| Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | TX-15 | Normington Petts | 553.0 LV | D 51.0% · R 45.0% |
| Jun 21–Jun 23, 2026 | TX-28 | Pulse | 400.0 LV | D 38.0% · R 46.0% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | TX-34 | Ragnar Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 44.0% |
| May 18–May 25, 2026 | TX-15 | Applecart | 802.0 LV | D 48.0% · R 46.0% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | TX-34 | co/efficient | 777.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 41.0% |
| Mar 10–Mar 11, 2026 | TX-23 | Public Policy Polling | 521.0 RV | D 40.0% · R 42.0% |