Texas Senate · Paths to Victory
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
What does each candidate need to win Texas? Pick a starting map, then move turnout and support region by region to build a path for Talarico or for Paxton.
A calculator, not a forecast. Starting points are presets: the published COYNTOSS forecast spread across counties, or a past Democrat’s actual county map. Everything you change is plain arithmetic with no win probabilities. The official forecast lives on the Texas Senate forecast page and nothing here changes it.
Your scenario · two-party vote
SCENARIO MAP
County scenario map
Counties are shaded by scenario two-party margin. Thick lines mark regions.
1 Pick a starting map
Presets only. Each sets where every county begins before you change anything.
2 Try a path
Example routes, each applied to your starting map. The number shows where that path lands.
For Talarico
For Paxton
Your changes
None yet. The scenario matches the starting map.
3 Fine-tune by region
Votes vs. start scales a region’s two-party votes: +10% means 10% more votes than the starting map, not a 10-point turnout rate. Democratic share adds points to every county in the region; one share point moves the margin two points. Double-click a slider to zero it.
Regional vote ledger
Net votes are Talarico minus Paxton two-party votes. The statewide result is the sum of county votes, not an average of regional margins.
| Region | Two-party votes | Dem | Rep | Margin | Net votes | Net votes chart | Share of state | Change from start |
|---|
Who lives in each region
Background for building a path. These numbers describe each region; they do not move any votes in the scenario.
| Region | Eligible voters | Hispanic | White | Black | Asian | Ages 18–29 | Bachelor’s+ | 2024 turnout | Spanish-surname registered |
|---|
Sources and definitions
How the arithmetic works
Each county starts from the selected map’s Democratic and Republican votes. A region’s volume setting multiplies those votes, and its share setting adds points to each county’s Democratic two-party share, bounded between 0% and 100%. County votes are then summed into regional and statewide totals. With every setting at zero, a historical starting map reproduces the official result exactly.
The forecast starting map
The COYNTOSS forecast start takes the published statewide Texas Senate margin and spreads it across counties with one uniform shift of the 2024 Senate county results, keeping each county’s 2024 vote volume. It is calculated once when chosen; your regional changes are then applied without recalibrating.
Other candidates
Minor-party and write-in votes are kept from the official canvass and scale with each region’s vote volume. Shares, margins and the map are two-party.
What this is not
Vote volume is contest votes, not a turnout rate. The historical maps are separate elections and are never averaged. Regions are a COYNTOSS grouping of counties, not official districts. Demographic figures are descriptive and are not used to move votes. No probability is attached to any scenario.