Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Utah House Forecast
‹ See all House racesUtah elects 4 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 3 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 3 of 4 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 4
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 1
- Districts with polls
- 4 of 4
- Closest district
- UT-02 R+14.8
District map
Utah congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
All races
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
UT-02R incumbent
Peter Crosby D9.1%
Blake Moore R90.9%
R+14.8 model margin · 3 district polls
UT-04R incumbent
Jonny Larsen D3.4%
Mike Kennedy R96.6%
R+19.5 model margin · 1 district poll
UT-03R incumbent
Kent Udell D0.3%
Celeste Maloy R99.7%
R+28.6 model margin · 1 district poll
UT-01Open
Ben McAdams D>99.9%
Riley Owen R<0.1%
D+35.6 model margin · 1 district poll
UT-02 · R incumbent · Model record under review
Utah's 2nd District
Crosby 9.1% · Moore 90.9% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+14.8
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+2.2
- Fundamentals
- R+20.4
- Matchup
- Peter Crosby vs. Blake Moore
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 44.9%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+29.0
- Relative district lean
- R+27.5
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+1.2
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+19.2
- Full fundamentals
- R+20.4
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 35.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±11.0 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Polling inputs
District polls
6 included surveys across 4 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10–Sep 24, 2026 | UT-02 | Lighthouse Research | 515.0 RV | D 34.0% · R 39.0% |
| Sep 21–Sep 23, 2026 | UT-02 | Crosby campaign internal (pollster not disclosed) | 657.0 LV | D 34.9% · R 32.0% |
| Sep 8–Sep 17, 2026 | UT-04 | Lighthouse Research | 513.0 RV | D 32.9% · R 41.7% |
| Sep 2–Sep 15, 2026 | UT-03 | Lighthouse Research | 508.0 RV | D 26.4% · R 44.5% |
| Sep 8–Sep 10, 2026 | UT-02 | Crosby campaign internal (pollster not disclosed) | 762.0 RV | D 30.7% · R 32.4% |
| Aug 31–Sep 10, 2026 | UT-01 | Lighthouse Research | 515.0 RV | D 62.7% · R 21.2% |