COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Virginia House Forecast

‹ See all House races

Virginia elects 11 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 6 districts as favoring Democrats, 3 as favoring Republicans and 2 as toss-ups.

Delegation outlook

Democrats lead in 7 of 11 districts

  • Solid D 5
  • Likely D 1
  • Toss-up 2
  • Lean R 1
  • Solid R 2

Forecast summary

Seats
11
Toss-ups
2
Not rated Solid
4
Districts with polls
4 of 11
Closest district
VA-01 R+0.6

District map

Virginia congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

Races to watch

Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.

VA-01R incumbent
Toss-up
Shannon Taylor D47.7%
Rob Wittman R52.3%

R+0.6 model margin · 4 district polls

VA-02R incumbent
Toss-up
Elaine Luria D65.1%
Jen Kiggans R34.9%

D+2.6 model margin · 3 district polls

VA-05R incumbent
Lean R
Tom Perriello D20.7%
John McGuire R79.3%

R+5.9 model margin · 3 district polls

VA-07D incumbent
Likely D
Eugene Vindman D90.2%
Douglas Ollivant R9.8%

D+13.8 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

VA-01 · R incumbent

Virginia's 1st District

Taylor 47.7% · Wittman 52.3% chance of winning

Model margin
R+0.6
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
D+2.3
Fundamentals
R+1.6
Matchup
Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman

How the forecast is built

Polling average D+2.3 4 district polls
Fundamentals R+1.6 Inputs listed below
Projected margin R+0.6 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 50.6%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
R+4.9
Relative district lean
R+5.6
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
R+2.4
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
D+2.7
Full fundamentals
R+1.6
Fundamentals blend weight
50.0%
Total uncertainty
±7.4 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Every district

All 11 Virginia districts

Virginia House districts with rating, model margin, chance of winning and polling
DistrictMatchupRatingModel marginChance of winningPolling average
VA-01Shannon Taylor D vs. Rob Wittman R
R incumbent		Toss-upR+0.6D 47.7% · R 52.3%D+2.3 4 polls
VA-02Elaine Luria D vs. Jen Kiggans R
R incumbent		Toss-upD+2.6D 65.1% · R 34.9%D+2.8 3 polls
VA-03Bobby Scott D vs. Edwin Rivera R
D incumbent		Solid DD+49.2D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
VA-04Jennifer McClellan D vs. Robert Murray Jr. R
D incumbent		Solid DD+45.8D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
VA-05Tom Perriello D vs. John McGuire R
R incumbent		Lean RR+5.9D 20.7% · R 79.3%R+4.6 3 polls
VA-06Beth Macy D vs. Ben Cline R
R incumbent		Solid RR+23.2D 1.0% · R 99.0%R+30.0 1 poll
VA-07Eugene Vindman D vs. Douglas Ollivant R
D incumbent		Likely DD+13.8D 90.2% · R 9.8%No district polls
VA-08Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr. D vs. Tony Sabio R
D incumbent		Solid DD+62.0D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
VA-09Joy Powers D vs. Morgan Griffith R
R incumbent		Solid RR+37.4D <0.1% · R >99.9%No district polls
VA-10Suhas Subramanyam D vs. Dave Beckwith R
D incumbent		Solid DD+20.1D 97.4% · R 2.6%No district polls
VA-11James Walkinshaw D vs. Arthur Purves R
D incumbent		Solid DD+47.0D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls

Polling inputs

District polls

11 included surveys across 4 districts, newest first.

Field datesDistrictPollsterSampleResults
Oct 1–Oct 10, 2026VA-02Christopher Newport University702.0 LVD 46.0% · R 43.0%
Oct 1–Oct 10, 2026VA-02Christopher Newport University Wason Center702.0 LVD 46.0% · R 43.0% · O 2.0%
Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026VA-06co/efficient791.0 LVD 29.0% · R 59.0%
Sep 23–Sep 28, 2026VA-05Washington Post / Schar School600.0 LVD 45.0% · R 51.0%
Sep 23–Sep 28, 2026VA-01Washington Post / Schar School609.0 LVD 50.0% · R 46.0%
Sep 21–Sep 24, 2026VA-05Expedition Strategies400.0 LVD 45.0% · R 46.0%
Sep 15–Sep 17, 2026VA-01DCCC Analytics Department519.0 LVD 46.0% · R 47.0%
Jul 29–Aug 1, 2026VA-05Expedition Strategies602.0 LVD 44.0% · R 47.0%
Jul 9–Jul 13, 2026VA-02Tulchin Research700.0 LVD 47.0% · R 47.0%
Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026VA-01Ragnar Research Partners400.0 LVD 42.0% · R 46.0%
Aug 8–Aug 9, 2025VA-01Public Policy Polling541.0 RVD 40.0% · R 41.0%

‹ All 435 House districts