Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Vermont House Forecast
‹ See all House racesVermont elects one representative at large. The COYNTOSS model rates the race Solid D, with a model margin of D+35.3.
Delegation outlook
Solid D for the at-large seat
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 1
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 0
- Districts with polls
- 1 of 1
- Closest district
- VT-01 D+35.3
District map
Vermont congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
The race
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
VT-01 · D incumbent
Vermont at-large district
Balint >99.9% · Malloy <0.1% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+35.3
- Rating
- Solid D
- Polling average
- D+28.3
- Fundamentals
- D+43.3
- Matchup
- Becca Balint vs. Gerald Malloy
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 53.5%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+31.8
- Relative district lean
- D+32.6
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+40.9
- Full fundamentals
- D+43.3
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.6 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Polling inputs
District polls
4 included surveys across 1 district, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17–Sep 21, 2026 | VT-01 | University of New Hampshire | 830.0 LV | D 66.0% · R 30.0% |
| Sep 10–Sep 21, 2026 | VT-01 | Braun Research | 817.0 A | D 43.28% · R 28.3% |
| Jul 15–Jul 20, 2026 | VT-01 | UNH | 954.0 LV | D 63.0% · R 25.0% |
| Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 | VT-01 | UNH | 887.0 LV | D 57.0% · R 26.0% |