Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Washington House Forecast
‹ See all House racesWashington elects 10 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 8 districts as favoring Democrats, 2 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 8 of 10 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 10
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 3
- Districts with polls
- 2 of 10
- Closest district
- WA-03 D+4.3
District map
Washington congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
WA-03 · D incumbent
Washington's 3rd District
Perez 66.4% · Braun 33.6% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+4.3
- Rating
- Lean D
- Polling average
- R+1.5
- Fundamentals
- D+11.1
- Matchup
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs. John Braun
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 39.4%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+3.3
- Relative district lean
- R+3.9
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+4.4
- Full fundamentals
- D+11.1
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.1 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 10 Washington districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA-01 | Suzan DelBene D vs. Mary Silva R D incumbent | Solid D | D+39.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| WA-02 | Rick Larsen D vs. Edwin Feller R D incumbent | Solid D | D+36.9 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D vs. John Braun R D incumbent | Lean D | D+4.3 | D 66.4% · R 33.6% | R+1.5 3 polls |
| WA-04 | John Duresky D vs. Amanda McKinney R Open | Likely R | R+14.0 | D 9.2% · R 90.8% | No district polls |
| WA-05 | Carmela Conroy D vs. Michael Baumgartner R R incumbent | Likely R | R+10.5 | D 11.3% · R 88.7% | R+8.0 1 poll |
| WA-06 | Emily Randall D vs. Teresa Fox R D incumbent | Solid D | D+28.2 | D 99.8% · R 0.2% | No district polls |
| WA-07 | Pramila Jayapal D vs. Nirav Sheth R D incumbent | Solid D | D+84.0 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| WA-08 | Kim Schrier D vs. Spencer Meline R D incumbent | Solid D | D+18.5 | D 96.4% · R 3.6% | No district polls |
| WA-09 | D. Adam Smith D vs. Douglas Michael Basler R D incumbent | Solid D | D+52.8 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| WA-10 | Marilyn Strickland D vs. Chris Chung R D incumbent | Solid D | D+29.3 | D 99.8% · R 0.2% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
4 included surveys across 2 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17–Sep 27, 2026 | WA-03 | DHM Research | 543.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 48.0% |
| Jul 8–Jul 10, 2026 | WA-03 | Emerson College | 500.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 43.0% |
| May 18–May 25, 2026 | WA-05 | Tavern Research | 578.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 53.0% |
| Apr 25–Apr 29, 2026 | WA-03 | co/efficient | 982.0 LV | D 34.0% · R 41.0% |