Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Wisconsin House Forecast
‹ See all House racesWisconsin elects 8 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 2 districts as favoring Democrats, 4 as favoring Republicans and 2 as toss-ups.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 5 of 8 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 8
- Toss-ups
- 2
- Not rated Solid
- 4
- Districts with polls
- 3 of 8
- Closest district
- WI-03 D+1.5
District map
Wisconsin congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
WI-03R incumbent
Rebecca Cooke D56.8%
Derrick Van Orden R43.2%
D+1.5 model margin · 4 district polls
WI-01R incumbent
Mitchell Berman D39.1%
Bryan Steil R60.9%
R+2.5 model margin · 4 district polls
WI-08R incumbent
Rick Crosson D12.4%
Tony Wied R87.6%
R+12.0 model margin · No district polls
WI-06R incumbent
Bradley Smith D6.7%
Glenn Grothman R93.3%
R+14.7 model margin · 1 district poll
WI-03 · R incumbent · Model record under review
Wisconsin's 3rd District
Cooke 56.8% · Orden 43.2% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+1.5
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- D+3.8
- Fundamentals
- D+1.8
- Matchup
- Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 14.3%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+7.4
- Relative district lean
- R+6.9
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+1.4
- Full fundamentals
- D+1.8
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.8 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 8 Wisconsin districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-01 | Mitchell Berman D vs. Bryan Steil R R incumbent | Toss-up | R+2.5 | D 39.1% · R 60.9% | Even 4 polls |
| WI-02 | Mark Pocan D vs. No Republican nominee R D incumbent | Solid D | D+52.1 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke D vs. Derrick Van Orden R R incumbent | Toss-up | D+1.5 | D 56.8% · R 43.2% | D+3.8 4 polls |
| WI-04 | Gwen Moore D vs. Purnima Nath R D incumbent | Solid D | D+64.4 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| WI-05 | Andrew Beck D vs. Scott Fitzgerald R R incumbent | Solid R | R+18.3 | D 4.1% · R 95.9% | No district polls |
| WI-06 | Bradley Smith D vs. Glenn Grothman R R incumbent | Likely R | R+14.7 | D 6.7% · R 93.3% | R+24.0 1 poll |
| WI-07 | Fred Clark D vs. Michael Alfonso R Open | Solid R | R+16.2 | D 5.9% · R 94.1% | No district polls |
| WI-08 | Rick Crosson D vs. Tony Wied R R incumbent | Likely R | R+12.0 | D 12.4% · R 87.6% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
9 included surveys across 3 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | WI-01 | Impact Research | 500.0 LV | D 48.0% · R 47.0% |
| Sep 21–Sep 23, 2026 | WI-01 | DCCC Targeting Team | 495.0 LV | D 48.0% · R 48.0% |
| Aug 6–Aug 9, 2026 | WI-01 | Impact Research | 400.0 LV | D 48.0% · R 49.0% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | WI-03 | FM3 Research | 535.0 LV | D 50.0% · R 46.0% |
| May 26–May 31, 2026 | WI-03 | Impact Research | 500.0 LV | D 50.0% · R 46.0% |
| May 18–May 28, 2026 | WI-06 | Tavern Research | 437.0 LV | D 39.0% · R 61.0% |
| Mar 14–Mar 16, 2026 | WI-01 | Ragnar Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 50.0% |
| Feb 12–Feb 17, 2026 | WI-03 | Impact Research | 500.0 LV | D 49.0% · R 48.0% |
| Oct 14–Oct 15, 2025 | WI-03 | PPP | 609.0 RV | D 44.0% · R 42.0% |