Analysis

Current Senate forecast

The current release uses Senate model v0.53, with inputs through September 27, 2026. These estimates come from the frozen SIM-20260927-0002 simulation.

South Carolina: Graham 90.7%, Andrews 9.3%

Iowa and Maine InsiderAdvantage polls (Sept. 22–23) added: Turek 41.5% (R+0.80), Jackson 70.9% (D+2.02). Graham: 90.7%; Andrews: 9.3%.

Georgia moves from Lean D to Tilt D

Georgia shifts from Lean D (D+2.73) to Tilt D (D+1.23). Democrats’ Senate control chance rises 59.75% → 60.38%; expected seats move 50.93 → 50.95.

Updated race estimates

Texas Senate moves D+0.15 and stays Toss-up. Alaska’s first-round poll has Sullivan ahead. California’s 54–36 poll converts to D+20.49; its forecast is D+19.81. Tennessee’s win probability is withheld (0.448-point gap between simulation and workbook margins).

An earlier staging version showed Georgia at D+0.60 (Toss-up). The workbook forecast is D+1.23 (Tilt D).

Ohio shifts to Toss-up; Nebraska governor moves to Safe R

Ohio Senate: Tilt D → Toss-up. Nebraska governor: Likely R → Safe R.

Forecast movement by race

Wedgewood’s NE-01 crosstab is R+12 and remains archived. Pennsylvania projects D+18.92; Senate run SIM-20260924-0002 puts Democratic control odds at 60.42%. No governor-control probability is available.

Poll sources: RCP Senate list · RCP Governor list · NYT/Siena PA · UMass Lowell · Quantus · High Point · Rasmussen · Big Data Poll. Wedgewood memos are linked in each poll row.

Texas: Talarico 50–44, Hinojosa 49–46

Talarico led Paxton 50–44; Hinojosa led Abbott 49–46. Both Marist polls entered the September 22 averages.

Polls added

Simulation reruns

Frozen September 22 Senate run: 61.17% Democratic control, 50.98 expected seats (median 51; middle 80%, 48–54). House run: 75.05% Democratic control, 234.74 expected seats (median 233; middle 80%, 205–266). Montana returns to Safe R.

Senate and House runs use inputs through September 22. Montana’s Safe R rating reflects separate treatment of its third-party vote.

Iowa and Michigan governor margins move toward Democrats

Thirteen polls: seven Senate, five governor, one House; archives now hold 437 statewide and 115 House polls. Iowa and Michigan governor margins rise 2.50 and 2.49 points toward Democrats.

Polls added

September 22 Senate run: Democrats have a 48.3% chance of control and 50.3 expected seats. House odds remain on the September 6 run; no governor-control estimate is available.

National input moves to D+8.65

Silver Bulletin’s D+8.65 generic-ballot average is now the national input. The refresh added 40 poll rows and removed two Alaska duplicates (38 net new).

Control odds and seat ranges come from a live workbook run, not a frozen snapshot.

New Hampshire moves from Likely D to Lean D

New Hampshire moves Likely D → Lean D. Five polls were enabled; Florida and Montana recommendations stay off.

Each row shows the combined effect with the other selected polls enabled. Sources: NH · KS · IA · KY · SD · MT · FL.

Senate control odds near even

Maine CNN: Jackson 48–45 Collins. Michigan CNN: El-Sayed 47–44 Rogers; Detroit News: Rogers 46–44. YouGov: Talarico 48–43. TIPP: Flanagan 44–42.

The Michigan polls were enabled together. Senate control odds: D 48.9%, R 51.1% (September 9 frozen run). RCP Senate poll list →

Candidate-history update affects five Senate races

Version 0.52 carries candidate strength into the poll blend: up to 0.93 points for exceptional history, or 1 point after three consistent statewide results (score ≥3).

Independent adjustments use each candidate’s own record: Osborn keeps partial credit, Bengs retains three points, and Achilles loses his. Regular third-party candidates do not qualify.

Polls move Iowa, Tennessee and New Mexico; Texas result corrected

Hinson 50–45 Turek; Hagerty 58–33 Bradshaw; Luján 53–38 Marker. Overton/TPPF corrected Texas to 50–50 including leaners.

None of the affected races changed rating. Model margins: Iowa R+2.60 → R+3.04; Tennessee R+28.33 → R+28.02; New Mexico D+14.36 → D+15.01; Texas D+0.51 → D+0.13. Emerson · Beacon · New Mexico Journal poll

National input moves to D+6.6

Silver Bulletin raises the input from D+5.8 to D+6.6; at 75% weight, each race gains 0.60 points before state polling.

Georgia: D+6.59 → D+6.87. Maine moves Tilt D → Lean D. Democrats’ control chance: 46.1%; expected seats: 50.19 (middle 80%, 47–53).

National input briefly moves to D+5.8

The national input briefly fell D+6.4 → D+5.8, cutting 0.45 points before local polling. Georgia moved D+6.86 → D+6.66; no rating changed.

Georgia moved from D+6.86 to D+6.66. No race changed rating.

New polls in Alaska and Texas

Peltola led Sullivan 50.6–49.4; Talarico led Paxton 50–45.

Frozen Senate run: Republicans have a 56.9% chance of control, Democrats 43.1%. Expected seats: D 50.01, R 49.99; middle 80% is 47–53 Democratic seats.

Michigan stays Tilt D after a new poll

YouGov: El-Sayed 50–45 Rogers (779 likely voters; neutral pollster multiplier 1.00).

Michigan stays Tilt D. Democratic control odds rose 48.2% → 48.3%; expected caucus seats moved 50.292 → 50.299 (middle 80%, 48–53). Read the release →

Wedgewood: Hinson 50–48 in Iowa

Wedgewood · Hinson 50% (n=600) · Turek 48%. Forecast margin: R+2.36 → R+2.42.

Michigan remains Tilt D after EPIC-MRA

EPIC-MRA: El-Sayed 50–45 Rogers. Michigan moved D+2.44 → D+3.05 after this poll, then to D+3.37 on later polls.

Michigan remains Tilt D.