GOVERNOR MODEL · v0.0.1 Experimental
Control of the governorships is a toss-up.
Updated September 23, 2026 · all 36 governor forecasts refreshed through September 22, 2026 · Texas Marist poll fielded September 17–20
Governor control simulation unavailable for this release. Race forecasts remain available; no aggregate control probability is published.
2026 GOVERNORS
Current governor estimates
Projected margin from the experimental model. Select a state in the map for race details.
Model status
Experimental
COYNTOSS governor projection. The bar groups seats by current forecast rating; non-up seats are shown at the ends.
CLOSEST RACES
The eight closest races
Ordered by absolute projected margin. Positive numbers favor Democrats; negative numbers favor Republicans.
| State | Rating | Projected margin | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading closest governor races… | |||
POLLING CONTEXT
Polls used by the model
These surveys are included in the governor model’s polling blend.
Latest poll
September 20, 2026
| Date | Race | Pollster | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24 | Connecticut | University of New Hampshire | 809 likely voters | Lamont (D) 52% · Fazio (R) 37% |
| Aug 22 | Iowa | Suffolk University | 500 likely voters | Sand (D) 48% · Lahn (R) 44% |
| Aug 19 | Arizona | NextGen P | 1,627 likely voters | Hobbs (D) 39% · Biggs (R) 38% |
| Aug 18 | Arkansas | J.L. Partners | 803 likely voters | Love (D) 40% · Sanders (R) 45% |
| Aug 17 | Georgia | InsiderAdvantage | 800 likely voters | Bottoms (D) 46% · Jackson (R) 46% |
| Aug 17 | Arizona | Quantus Insights | 780 likely voters | Hobbs (D) 49% · Biggs (R) 43% |
| Aug 16 | Arizona | Kreate Strategies | 900 likely voters | Hobbs (D) 45% · Biggs (R) 40% |
| Aug 16 | Kansas | Global Strategy Group | 600 likely voters | Holscher (D) 47% · Masterson (R) 46% |
| Aug 11 | Michigan | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 877 likely voters | Benson (D) 49% · James (R) 44% |
METHODOLOGY
How it works
- Baseline. State partisan lean is combined with the national generic-ballot margin: 65% of state lean and 55% of the generic ballot.
- Candidates and incumbents. Candidate experience is capped at ±3 points; incumbency adds ±2.5 points; challenger quality is capped at ±2.
- Expert ratings. Cook and Sabato ratings are translated to approximate margins (Toss-up 0, Lean ±5, Likely ±10, Safe/Solid ±18) and averaged.
- Polling. Polls use a 30-day half-life and receive more weight as effective polling weight accumulates, up to a 90% ceiling.
Limitations. The incumbent-history adjustment was selected using pre-2014 data and evaluated on 254 usable governor races from 2004–2022. Historical polling and expert-rating series were not consistently reconstructable, so the poll blend and uncertainty tiers remain provisional.