COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne
Final forecast · Nov. 3

GOVERNOR MODEL · v0.3 beta

Democrats have a narrow edge in the 2026 governor outlook.

Updated November 3, 2026 · all 36 governor forecasts use inputs through November 3, 2026

Experimental model. The COYNTOSS governor model is experimental. It has not been backtested as a complete forecast, and it is being actively developed for future election cycles, so its methods, ratings and probabilities may change from one release to the next. Treat these numbers as a work in progress, not a finished forecast.

Chance of a governor majority

78.8%Democratic majority

9.4%25–25 split

11.8%Republican majority

Frozen November 3, 2026 governor outlook · 100,000 draws · run GOV-20261103-100K-S260831-R1.

Expected governors
27.4 D · 22.6 Raverage across the simulation
Held or rated D
—not up this year, plus races rated D
Held or rated R
—not up this year, plus races rated R

    Starred blocks are governors not up this year.

    The eight closest races

    Eight closest governor races in the current COYNTOSS forecast
    StateRatingMarginChance of winningDetails
    Loading closest governor races…

    Ordered by absolute projected margin. Chances are the published model probabilities.

    The map

    Every 2026 governor race by forecast rating

    Hover or tap a state for its race; select it to open the forecast. States without a 2026 race are dark.

    Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo 2026 race

    The full board

    All 36 governor races

    Sort by any column, filter by rating, or search for a state or candidate. Chances of winning come from the frozen governor simulation.

    Polling context

    Polls used by the model

    These surveys are included in the governor model’s polling blend.

    Latest poll
    September 23, 2026

    Governor polls used by the current model
    DateRacePollsterSampleResult
    Fielded Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026GeorgiaInsiderAdvantage (R)1,200 likely votersKeisha Lance Bottoms (D) 46% · Rick Jackson (R) 48%
    Fielded Sep 19–Sep 22, 2026TexasTexas Public Opinion Research1,007 likely votersGina Hinojosa (D) 46% · Greg Abbott (R) 50%
    Fielded Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026IowaMarist University1,050 registered votersRob Sand (D) 54% · Zach Lahn (R) 42%
    Fielded Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026TexasMarist University1,139 registered votersGina Hinojosa (D) 49% · Greg Abbott (R) 46% · Other (O) 1%
    Fielded Sep 16–Sep 20, 2026MichiganSuffolk University500 likely votersJocelyn Benson (D) 50.6% · John James (R) 34.4%
    Fielded Sep 15–Sep 20, 2026CaliforniaSurveyUSA / ABC 10News–Union-Tribune1,000 adultsXavier Becerra (D) 55% · Steve Hilton (R) 33%
    Fielded Sep 15–Sep 19, 2026TexasTexas Southern University / YouGov1,800 likely votersGina Hinojosa (D) 45% · Greg Abbott (R) 49%
    Fielded Sep 8–Sep 14, 2026CaliforniaCitrin Center / POLITICO / TrueDot1,983 likely votersXavier Becerra (D) 54% · Steve Hilton (R) 36%
    Fielded Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026TexasNBC News/Mason-Dixon625 likely votersGina Hinojosa (D) 41% · Greg Abbott (R) 48%

    Open the full poll archive

    Methodology

    How the governor forecast works

    A simpler baseline (state lean plus the generic ballot) is adjusted for candidates and incumbency, averaged with expert ratings and blended with polls. The model is experimental: it has not been backtested as a complete forecast, and its poll blend and uncertainty tiers remain provisional.