2026 SENATE FORECAST · v0.52

Democrats have the advantage in the 2026 Senate control forecast.

Updated September 23, 2026 · race estimates and control simulation refreshed; model inputs through September 22, 2026

Expected seats

50,000-run frozen simulation · snapshot from September 22, 2026

Democratic caucus 51.7

Republicans 49.3

Current race estimates

Projected two-party margin if the election were held today.

Model version
v0.52

Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo 2026 race

The map shows race-margin estimates. The control probability above is calculated separately.

CLOSEST RACES

The eight closest races

Ordered by absolute projected margin. Positive numbers favor Democrats; negative numbers favor Republicans.

Eight closest Senate races in the current COYNTOSS forecast
State	Rating	Projected margin	Details
Iowa	Toss-up	R+0.92	Race page
Texas	Toss-up	D+1.23	Race page
Alaska	Toss-up	D+1.73	Race page
Ohio	Tilt D	D+2.02	Race page
Maine	Tilt D	D+2.54	Race page
Michigan	Tilt D	D+3.32	Race page
Montana	Tilt D	D+3.36	Race page
Nebraska	Likely R	R+5.41	Race page

See the Senate poll snapshot

RECENT POLLING

Six most recent Senate polls

Each row includes the model effect recorded with the poll.

Six most recent Senate polls and recorded model effects
Date	Race	Pollster	Result	Model effect
Loading recent Senate polls…

METHODOLOGY

Senate methodology

Frozen forecast snapshot

Forecast and poll snapshot 2026-09-23 · 35 Senate races · 36 governor races · 435 House districts.

Senate control: Democratic caucus 70.96%; Republicans 29.04%. Expected Democratic caucus seats: 51.67; median 52. Frozen simulation snapshot: September 22, 2026 (50,000 runs).

State	Rating	Projected margin
Texas	Toss-up	D+1.23
Iowa	Toss-up	R+0.92
Alaska	Toss-up	D+1.73
Ohio	Tilt D	D+2.02
Maine	Tilt D	D+2.54
Michigan	Tilt D	D+3.32
Nebraska	Likely R	R+5.41
New Hampshire	Likely D	D+5.82
Minnesota	Likely D	D+5.49
Kansas	Likely R	R+6.57
Florida	Likely R	R+7.09
Georgia	Likely D	D+7.42
North Carolina	Likely D	D+7.82
South Carolina	Likely R	R+6.25
Arkansas	Safe R	R+15.35
Louisiana	Likely R	R+14.93
South Dakota	Safe R	R+16.64
Virginia	Safe D	D+15.80
New Mexico	Safe D	D+16.05
New Jersey	Safe D	D+16.93
Mississippi	Safe R	R+16.98
Kentucky	Safe R	R+18.67
Illinois	Safe D	D+19.46
Colorado	Safe D	D+20.19
Montana	Tilt D	D+3.36
Alabama	Safe R	R+22.35
Delaware	Safe D	D+23.99
Oregon	Safe D	D+25.11
Rhode Island	Safe D	D+25.76
Tennessee	Safe R	R+27.00
Oklahoma	Safe R	R+28.44
Idaho	Safe R	R+30.47
Massachusetts	Safe D	D+31.36
West Virginia	Safe R	R+39.53
Wyoming	Safe R	R+40.39

Current Senate control estimate

Expected seats

Current race estimates

The eight closest races

Six most recent Senate polls