Democrats have the edge in the fight for Senate control.

Current Senate forecast

Democrats have a 75.27% chance of controlling the Senate; Republicans have a 24.73% chance. The forecast averages 51.96 Democratic seats and 48.04 Republican seats.

Two new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of November 3. 2 poll records were added: 2 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 75.27% chance of Democratic control, up from 74.66%, and 51.960 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.911. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

42 new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of November 3. 42 poll records were added: 40 enter the polling averages and 2 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 74.66% chance of Democratic control, up from 72.99%, and 51.911 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.781. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed.

The House forecast now uses the House workbook as of November 3. The frozen simulation gives Democrats a 83.79% chance of House control (previously 82.95%) and 239.3 expected Democratic seats (previously 238.6).

The Governor forecast now uses workbook run GOV-20261103-100K-S260831-R1 as of November 3. The frozen simulation gives Democrats a 78.80% chance of a majority and 27.43 expected Democratic governors (previously 75.71% and 27.19). 32 new Governor poll records were added.

14 new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of November 2. 14 poll records were added: 14 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 72.99% chance of Democratic control, up from 71.94%, and 51.781 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.706. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

Senate rating changes: Nebraska Likely R to Lean R.

The House forecast now uses the House workbook as of November 2. The frozen simulation gives Democrats a 82.95% chance of House control (previously 83.96%) and 238.6 expected Democratic seats (previously 239.0).

The Governor forecast now uses workbook run GOV-20261102-100K-S260831-R4 as of November 2. The frozen simulation gives Democrats a 75.71% chance of a majority and 27.19 expected Democratic governors (previously 71.05% and 26.81). 22 new Governor poll records were added.

Six new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of November 1. 6 poll records were added: 6 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 71.94% chance of Democratic control, up from 70.11%, and 51.706 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.603. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

Senate rating changes: Maine Toss-up to Tilt D. The governor forecast is unchanged.

The House forecast now uses the House workbook as of November 1. The frozen simulation gives Democrats a 83.96% chance of House control (previously 83.85%) and 239.0 expected Democratic seats (previously 238.8).

Seven new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of November 1. 7 poll records were added: 7 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 70.11% chance of Democratic control, up from 69.82%, and 51.603 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.581. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The House forecast is unchanged.

The Governor forecast now uses workbook run GOV-20261101-100K-S260831-R2 as of November 1. The frozen simulation gives Democrats a 71.05% chance of a majority and 26.81 expected Democratic governors (previously 70.61% and 26.78). 9 new Governor poll records were added.

One new Senate poll

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 31. 1 poll record was added: 1 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 69.82% chance of Democratic control, down from 70.85%, and 51.581 expected Democratic seats, down from 51.664. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

Senate rating changes: Nebraska Lean R to Likely R.

The House forecast now uses the House workbook as of October 31. The frozen simulation gives Democrats a 83.85% chance of House control (previously 80.54%) and 238.8 expected Democratic seats (previously 236.2).

The Governor forecast now uses workbook run GOV-20261031-100K-S260831-R2 as of October 31. The frozen simulation gives Democrats a 70.61% chance of a majority and 26.78 expected Democratic governors (previously 64.65% and 26.40). 46 new Governor poll records were added.

Six new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 30. 6 poll records were added: 5 enter the polling averages and 1 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 70.85% chance of Democratic control, up from 70.56%, and 51.664 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.642. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

Two new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 30. 2 poll records were added: 2 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 70.56% chance of Democratic control, down from 70.61%, and 51.642 expected Democratic seats, down from 51.642. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

One new Senate poll

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 30. 1 poll record was added: 1 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 70.61% chance of Democratic control, up from 69.14%, and 51.642 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.515. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

Senate rating changes: Kansas Tilt R to Toss-up. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

One new Senate poll

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 29. 1 poll record was added: 1 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 69.14% chance of Democratic control, up from 69.08%, and 51.515 expected Democratic seats, down from 51.521. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

12 new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 29. 12 poll records were added: 12 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 69.08% chance of Democratic control, down from 69.14%, and 51.521 expected Democratic seats, down from 51.540. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

Senate rating changes: Montana Safe R to Likely R. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

Six new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 29. 6 poll records were added: 6 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 69.14% chance of Democratic control, up from 68.01%, and 51.540 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.448. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

15 new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 28. 15 poll records were added: 15 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 68.01% chance of Democratic control, up from 66.79%, and 51.448 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.383. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

Senate rating changes: South Carolina Likely R to Lean R. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

Seven new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 26. 7 poll records were added: 7 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 66.79% chance of Democratic control, down from 68.08%, and 51.383 expected Democratic seats, down from 51.455. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

Seven new Senate polls

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 24. 7 poll records were added: 7 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 68.08% chance of Democratic control, down from 68.62%, and 51.455 expected Democratic seats, down from 51.489. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

New Senate polls and an updated frozen simulation

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 22. 19 poll records were added: 19 enter the polling averages and 0 remain excluded under the workbook release-date plan. The frozen simulation reports a 68.62% chance of Democratic control, up from 66.96%, and 51.489 expected Democratic seats, up from 51.376. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

No Senate race rating changed. The governor and House forecasts are unchanged.

Poll records reconciled across the three forecasts

The Senate snapshot now uses the RETROACT workbook as of October 20. It has 349 poll records, including 319 in the polling averages; 20 new records were added and six Wedgewood Polls records were removed. The frozen simulation reports a 66.958% chance of Democratic control and 51.376 expected Democratic seats. Probabilities are published for all 35 Senate races.

The governor workbook adds 20 poll records and removes five Wedgewood Polls records. One new poll enters the October 18 averages and 19 remain excluded by the workbook release-date plan. Six race probability snapshots are withheld because their margins differ from the frozen simulation inputs; the governor model remains dated October 18.

The House workbook adds five poll records and removes two Wedgewood Polls records, bringing the feed to 281 records. All five new polls remain excluded under the October 18 model release plan; the House model and simulation remain dated October 18.

Poll updates across the three forecasts

Three new Senate poll records were added. All three remain outside the polling averages under the workbook release plan. Democrats’ chance of Senate control moves from 66.57% to 66.84%, and expected Democratic caucus seats move from 51.381 to 51.394.

Eight new governor polls were added, and all eight enter the averages. Nevada changes from Tilt R to Toss-up and Vermont from Likely R to Lean R. Democrats’ chance of a governor majority moves from 63.712% to 64.647%; expected Democratic governors move from 26.32977 to 26.40002.

The House forecast adds three poll records. FL-05 changes from Solid R to Likely R, IN-01 from Likely D to Solid D, and TX-22 from Solid R to Likely R. Expected Democratic seats move from 235.3924 to 236.1762, and the chance of House control moves from 79.35% to 80.54%.

House polls and expert ratings update

The House forecast adds 129 poll records across 100 districts, bringing the total to 275 records and 219 included polls. The model now incorporates Inside Elections ratings at up to 30% weight, with a six-point adjustment cap and eligibility for races within 18 points. The extra poll-blend discount has been removed.

Democrats’ expected House seats move from 241.71 in the previous published House forecast to 235.39; their chance of House control moves from 87.19% to 79.35%. On the same updated polling inputs, the expert setting moves expected seats from 242.33 to 235.39. No House rating category changes. Nick LaLota, Rob Wittman and Bryan Steil become favored over Chris Gallant, Shannon Taylor and Mitchell Berman, respectively.

The expert category-to-probability mapping is provisional. Prior backtesting did not establish better House seat-total accuracy from expert ratings. Senate and governor forecasts are unchanged.

Six new Senate polls; the ratings hold

Six polls join the Senate forecast: InsiderAdvantage in Texas, Kansas and Maine; Bowling Green/YouGov in Ohio; Rasmussen in Michigan; and Talk Business/Hendrix in Arkansas. That brings the number included in the polling averages to 310.

Texas edges from D+1.4 to D+1.2. Ohio moves from D+2.3 to D+2.6, Michigan from D+3.9 to D+3.8, Kansas from R+2.9 to R+3.0 and Arkansas from R+16.1 to R+15.3. Maine remains D+1.8 after rounding. None changes rating. Democrats’ chance of Senate control rises from 66.37% to 66.57%; their expected seat count rises from 51.373 to 51.381. The House and governor forecasts are unchanged.

Iowa remains close; Texas inches toward Talarico

Six Senate polls were added across five states, including two in Iowa. The others cover Minnesota, Florida, New Mexico and Texas. All six enter the polling averages, for a total of 304 included polls.

Iowa moves from R+0.8 to R+0.5 and Texas from D+1.3 to D+1.4. Minnesota slips from D+5.7 to D+5.6; Florida moves from R+6.2 to R+6.1; New Mexico from D+16.2 to D+16.6. The ratings do not change. Democrats’ chance of Senate control rises from 64.66% to 66.37%. The House and governor forecasts are unchanged.

Mississippi becomes more competitive; five governor ratings change

The update adds 11 Senate polls, 59 governor polls and four House polls. Mississippi Senate moves from R+16.9 to R+12.8, shifting from Safe R to Likely R. Rhode Island moves from D+26.1 to D+30.0.

In the governor forecasts, Alaska changes from Lean R to Tilt D, Kansas and Texas from Lean R to Tilt R, Florida from Lean R to Likely R, and Vermont from Lean R to Likely R. New Mexico moves from D+12.3 to D+9.1; Illinois from D+15.4 to D+17.9. House probabilities remain experimental and have not been historically calibrated.

Maine’s second district tightens after two polls

Two polls were added in ME-02. The forecast moves from D+3.1 to D+2.3, and Paul LePage’s chance of winning rises from 37.8% to 40.0%.

The update also corrects nine incumbency classifications and three candidate names. Nine California districts have finalists from the same party, so that party’s seat is fixed in the simulations. The House probabilities remain experimental and uncalibrated.

Texas’s 15th district moves to Toss-up

Two polls were added in TX-15, along with 18 other House poll records. The Texas Southern survey comes from August; field dates and sample details for the Normington Petts poll come from an archive because the original posts were inaccessible.

TX-15 moves from R+4.6 to R+0.4, changing from Lean R to Toss-up. NC-01 moves from D+0.3 to D+2.7. KY-06 changes from Likely R to Toss-up, while TX-28 changes from Toss-up to Lean D. Democrats’ chance of House control rises from 87.06% to 87.82%. The model’s coefficients and uncertainty settings are unchanged.

Twenty-two Senate polls enter the forecast

The added polls cover Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. Two additional polls, in Minnesota and North Carolina, are recorded but do not yet enter the averages.

Iowa moves from R+0.65 to R+0.96 and Minnesota from D+5.32 to D+5.68. No rating changes. Democrats’ chance of Senate control moves from 66.15% to 65.61%. The House and governor forecasts are unchanged.

Five NYT/Siena polls leave the Senate ratings unchanged

New York Times/Siena polls were added in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. Alaska moves from D+1.29 to D+1.82 and Kansas from R+3.96 to R+3.68. No race changes rating. Democrats’ chance of Senate control rises from 62.64% to 63.83%.

Small moves in Kansas, Maine and South Carolina

Eight polls were added across Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Carolina. Kansas moves from R+4.48 to R+3.96, Maine from D+1.74 to D+1.47, and South Carolina from R+6.13 to R+5.45. No rating changes. Democrats’ chance of Senate control moves from 63.06% to 62.64%.

A revised Senate forecast and a fuller history

The Senate forecast now excludes Abacus Data polls and counts polls from their public release dates. Montana is modeled as Seth Bodnar, an independent, against Republican Kurt Alme. Daily historical estimates now cover September 9 through September 30.

Kansas changes from Likely R at R+5.50 to Lean R at R+4.48. Montana changes from Safe R at R+17.24 to Likely R at R+13.66. Democrats’ chance of Senate control moves from 61.04% to 63.06%. Win probabilities for Massachusetts and Rhode Island were not published in this update.

South Carolina remains a Republican favorite

New InsiderAdvantage polls were added in Iowa and Maine. The forecast gives Josh Turek a 41.5% chance in Iowa and Troy Jackson a 70.9% chance in Maine. In South Carolina, the Republican’s chance is 90.7%, against 9.3% for Annie Andrews.

Georgia Senate moves to Tilt D

Georgia moves from D+2.73 to D+1.23, changing from Lean D to Tilt D. Democrats’ chance of Senate control rises from 59.75% to 60.38%, with expected seats moving from 50.93 to 50.95.

This update includes four Senate polls and three governor polls. The governor majority forecast is unchanged.

Ohio moves to Toss-up

Ohio Senate moves from D+2.07 to D+1.82, crossing from Tilt D to Toss-up. Nebraska governor moves from R+13.91 to R+17.03, changing from Likely R to Safe R.

Other Senate changes are smaller: Kansas moves from R+6.53 to R+5.27, Maine from D+2.03 to D+2.25, Michigan from D+3.32 to D+3.35, Nebraska from R+5.32 to R+5.13, and North Carolina from D+7.90 to D+7.84.

Marist finds Democrats ahead in both Texas races

Marist’s September 17–20 Texas survey has James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton, 50–44, and Gina Hinojosa ahead of Greg Abbott, 49–46. Both polls entered the September 22 averages. Texas Senate moves from D+1.07 to D+1.23 and remains a Toss-up; the governor forecast moves from R+6.43 to R+5.70 and remains Likely R.

Iowa and Michigan governor forecasts move toward Democrats

Thirteen polls were added: seven Senate, five governor and one House. The Iowa and Michigan governor margins move 2.50 and 2.49 points toward Democrats, respectively. The statewide poll archive now contains 437 records, and the House archive contains 115.

The national polling input moves to D+8.65

The forecast now uses Silver Bulletin’s D+8.65 generic-ballot average. The poll update adds 40 records and removes two Alaska duplicates, for a net increase of 38. Iowa Senate changes from Tilt R to Toss-up; New Hampshire changes from Lean D to Likely D.

New Hampshire moves to Lean D

New Hampshire Senate changes from Likely D to Lean D, with its projected margin moving from D+5.61 to D+4.70. Five polls enter the averages. Florida and Montana polls under review remain excluded.

New polls in Maine, Michigan, Texas and Minnesota

CNN has Troy Jackson ahead of Susan Collins in Maine, 48–45. Michigan’s polls disagree: CNN has Abdul El-Sayed ahead, 47–44, while Detroit News/Glengariff has Mike Rogers ahead, 46–44. YouGov has James Talarico ahead in Texas, 48–43, and TIPP has Peggy Flanagan ahead in Minnesota, 44–42.

This is the first date shown in the forecast history. Later historical reconstructions can differ from the estimates published at the time; the charts identify which series they use.