Senate
Democrats 75.3% Republicans 24.7%
Result: Democrats win control: 54 Democratic seats, 44 Republican, Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled (NBC News/AP, Nov. 5) Source
2026 in review
The 2026 election is over. Here is how the forecast will be judged.
The final COYNTOSS forecast was published on November 3, 2026, and it will not change. This page sets it beside the official results, race by race, as states certify them.
The final forecast
What the model said on the morning of Election Day. These are the same frozen numbers shown on the Senate, House and Governors pages.
Senate: all 35 races
- Called correctly
- 31 of 33
- Brier score
- 0.050 (0 is perfect)
- Average margin miss
- 7.0 pts
- Forecast overstated
- Republicans by 5.9 pts on average
Graded so far: 33 of 35 races. The rest await official results.
Missed: Iowa, South Carolina (special).
| Race | Matchup | Margin | Rating | Favorite | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton (D) v. Roger Marshall (R) | Even | Toss-up | Adam Hamilton (D) 50.3% | Adam Hamilton · D+5.0 Called | ✓ |
| Iowa | Josh Turek (D) v. Ashley Hinson (R) | R+0.7 | Toss-up | Ashley Hinson (R) 57.1% | Josh Turek · D+4.1 Called | ✗ |
| Texas | James Talarico (D) v. Ken Paxton (R) | D+1.5 | Toss-up | James Talarico (D) 65.5% | James Talarico · D+12.1 Called | ✓ |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola (D) v. Dan Sullivan (R) | D+1.8 | Toss-up | Mary Peltola (D) 68.9% | Pending | · |
| Ohio (special) | Sherrod Brown (D) v. Jon Husted (R) | D+2.4 | Tilt D | Sherrod Brown (D) 74.1% | Sherrod Brown · D+4.8 Called | ✓ |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) v. Susan Collins (R) | D+2.6 | Tilt D | Troy Jackson (D) 75.6% | Troy Jackson · D+6.6 Called | ✓ |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn (I) v. Pete Ricketts (R) | R+4.3 | Lean R | Pete Ricketts (R) 82.3% | Pete Ricketts · R+6.8 Called | ✓ |
| South Carolina (special) | Annie Andrews (D) v. Darline Graham Nordone (R) | R+4.3 | Lean R | Darline Graham Nordone (R) 87.1% | Annie Andrews · D+4.4 Called | ✗ |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) v. Mike Rogers (R) | D+4.8 | Lean D | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 89.6% | Abdul El-Sayed · D+7.0 Called | ✓ |
| Florida (special) | Angie Nixon (D) v. Ashley Moody (R) | R+6.1 | Likely R | Ashley Moody (R) 94.1% | Ashley Moody · R+2.9 Called | ✓ |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan (D) v. Michele Tafoya (R) | D+6.7 | Likely D | Peggy Flanagan (D) 95.4% | Peggy Flanagan · D+10.1 Called | ✓ |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas (D) v. John Sununu (R) | D+7.7 | Likely D | Chris Pappas (D) 97.3% | Chris Pappas · D+14.1 Called | ✓ |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) v. Mike Collins (R) | D+8.0 | Likely D | Jon Ossoff (D) 97.6% | Jon Ossoff · D+18.0 Called | ✓ |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) v. Michael Whatley (R) | D+9.2 | Likely D | Roy Cooper (D) 98.7% | Roy Cooper · D+19.6 Called | ✓ |
| Montana | Seth Bodnar (I) v. Kurt Alme (R) | R+11.5 | Likely R | Kurt Alme (R) 98.7% | Kurt Alme Called | ✓ |
| Louisiana | Jamie Davis (D) v. Julia Letlow (R) | R+12.5 | Likely R | Julia Letlow (R) 91.9% | Julia Letlow · R+1.8 Called | ✓ |
| Virginia | Mark Warner (D) v. Bert Mizusawa (R) | D+16.2 | Safe D | Mark Warner (D) 92.6% | Mark Warner · D+22.6 Called | ✓ |
| Arkansas | Hallie Shoffner (D) v. Tom Cotton (R) | R+16.4 | Safe R | Tom Cotton (R) 99.7% | Tom Cotton · R+11.9 Called | ✓ |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom (D) v. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | R+16.6 | Safe R | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 93.0% | Pending | · |
| South Dakota | Brian Bengs (I) v. Mike Rounds (R) | R+17.1 | Safe R | Mike Rounds (R) 99.8% | Mike Rounds · R+21.0 Called | ✓ |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján (D) v. Larry Marker (R) | D+17.2 | Safe D | Ben Ray Luján (D) 99.9% | Ben Ray Luján · D+26.4 Called | ✓ |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker (D) v. Justin Murphy (R) | D+17.3 | Safe D | Cory Booker (D) 93.8% | Cory Booker · D+26.8 Called | ✓ |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton (D) v. Don Tracy (R) | D+17.6 | Safe D | Juliana Stratton (D) 99.1% | Juliana Stratton · D+23.4 Called | ✓ |
| Kentucky | Charles Booker (D) v. Andy Barr (R) | R+19.5 | Safe R | Andy Barr (R) 97.3% | Andy Barr · R+12.1 Called | ✓ |
| Alabama | Everett Wess (D) v. Barry Moore (R) | R+19.6 | Safe R | Barry Moore (R) 99.7% | Barry Moore · R+9.4 Called | ✓ |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper (D) v. Mark Baisley (R) | D+20.9 | Safe D | John Hickenlooper (D) 99.7% | John Hickenlooper · D+23.9 Called | ✓ |
| Delaware | Chris Coons (D) v. Michael Katz (R) | D+24.4 | Safe D | Chris Coons (D) 97.8% | Chris Coons · D+27.2 Called | ✓ |
| Tennessee | Marquita Bradshaw (D) v. Bill Hagerty (R) | R+25.0 | Safe R | Bill Hagerty (R) 99.8% | Bill Hagerty · R+12.2 Called | ✓ |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley (D) v. David Brock Smith (R) | D+25.5 | Safe D | Jeff Merkley (D) 98.1% | Jeff Merkley · D+16.5 Called | ✓ |
| Oklahoma | N'Kiyla Thomas (D) v. Kevin Hern (R) | R+28.0 | Safe R | Kevin Hern (R) 98.8% | Kevin Hern · R+17.9 Called | ✓ |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed (D) v. Raymond Mackay (R) | D+29.8 | Safe D | Jack Reed (D) >99.9% | Jack Reed · D+37.5 Called | ✓ |
| Idaho | Todd Achilles (I) v. Jim Risch (R) | R+30.1 | Safe R | Jim Risch (R) 99.1% | Jim Risch · R+23.0 Called | ✓ |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey (D) v. John Deaton (R) | D+32.2 | Safe D | Ed Markey (D) >99.9% | Ed Markey · D+31.3 Called | ✓ |
| West Virginia | Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) v. Shelley Moore Capito (R) | R+39.1 | Safe R | Shelley Moore Capito (R) 99.7% | Shelley Moore Capito · R+20.4 Called | ✓ |
| Wyoming | James Byrd (D) v. Harriet Hageman (R) | R+40.0 | Safe R | Harriet Hageman (R) 99.8% | Harriet Hageman · R+30.4 Called | ✓ |
Governors: all 36 races Beta
- Called correctly
- 31 of 33
- Brier score
- 0.043 (0 is perfect)
- Average margin miss
- 6.6 pts
- Forecast overstated
- Republicans by 3.6 pts on average
Graded so far: 33 of 36 races. The rest await official results.
Missed: Nevada, Texas.
| Race | Matchup | Margin | Rating | Favorite | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Aaron Ford (D) v. Joe Lombardo (R) | R+0.1 | Toss-up | Joe Lombardo (R) 51.2% | Aaron Ford · D+7.2 Called | ✗ |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) v. Rick Jackson (R) | D+0.3 | Toss-up | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 52.5% | Keisha Lance Bottoms · D+8.6 Called | ✓ |
| Kansas | Cindy Holscher (D) v. Ty Masterson (R) | R+1.0 | Tilt R | Ty Masterson (R) 59.0% | Pending | · |
| Vermont | Amanda Janoo (D) v. Phil Scott (R) | R+2.1 | Tilt R | Phil Scott (R) 67.6% | Phil Scott · R+7.0 Called | ✓ |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) v. Bernadette Wilson (R) | D+4.0 | Lean D | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 76.4% | Pending | · |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley (D) v. Tom Tiffany (R) | D+4.3 | Lean D | David Crowley (D) 81.4% | David Crowley · D+8.0 Called | ✓ |
| Ohio | Amy Acton (D) v. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) | D+4.4 | Lean D | Amy Acton (D) 82.4% | Amy Acton · D+7.9 Called | ✓ |
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa (D) v. Greg Abbott (R) | R+4.4 | Lean R | Greg Abbott (R) 82.8% | Gina Hinojosa · D+7.1 Called | ✗ |
| Florida | David Jolly (D) v. Byron Donalds (R) | R+4.5 | Lean R | Byron Donalds (R) 83.3% | Byron Donalds · R+1.3 Called | ✓ |
| Iowa | Rob Sand (D) v. Zach Lahn (R) | D+6.1 | Likely D | Rob Sand (D) 89.7% | Rob Sand · D+11.0 Called | ✓ |
| New Hampshire | Cinde Warmington (D) v. Kelly Ayotte (R) | R+6.5 | Likely R | Kelly Ayotte (R) 91.2% | Kelly Ayotte · R+3.9 Called | ✓ |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs (D) v. Andy Biggs (R) | D+7.0 | Likely D | Katie Hobbs (D) 92.3% | Katie Hobbs · D+12.8 Called | ✓ |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek (D) v. Christine Drazan (R) | D+7.3 | Likely D | Tina Kotek (D) 90.1% | Pending | · |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson (D) v. John James (R) | D+8.7 | Likely D | Jocelyn Benson (D) 96.0% | Jocelyn Benson · D+10.7 Called | ✓ |
| South Carolina | Jermaine Johnson (D) v. Alan Wilson (R) | R+8.8 | Likely R | Alan Wilson (R) 96.1% | Alan Wilson · R+4.5 Called | ✓ |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland (D) v. Gregg Hull (R) | D+8.8 | Likely D | Deb Haaland (D) 93.6% | Deb Haaland · D+14.6 Called | ✓ |
| Nebraska | Lynne Walz (D) v. Jim Pillen (R) | R+10.4 | Likely R | Jim Pillen (R) 98.0% | Jim Pillen · R+8.6 Called | ✓ |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree (D) v. Robert Charles (R) | D+11.0 | Likely D | Hannah Pingree (D) 98.4% | Hannah Pingree · D+17.3 Called | ✓ |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar (D) v. Lisa Demuth (R) | D+11.6 | Likely D | Amy Klobuchar (D) 98.7% | Amy Klobuchar · D+12.9 Called | ✓ |
| Alabama | Doug Jones (D) v. Tommy Tuberville (R) | R+13.8 | Likely R | Tommy Tuberville (R) 96.7% | Tommy Tuberville · R+4.2 Called | ✓ |
| New York | Kathy Hochul (D) v. Bruce Blakeman (R) | D+13.9 | Likely D | Kathy Hochul (D) 99.5% | Kathy Hochul · D+19.4 Called | ✓ |
| Oklahoma | Cyndi Munson (D) v. Mike Mazzei (R) | R+15.8 | Safe R | Mike Mazzei (R) 91.9% | Mike Mazzei · R+6.0 Called | ✓ |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont (D) v. Ryan Fazio (R) | D+16.1 | Safe D | Ned Lamont (D) 99.8% | Ned Lamont · D+18.8 Called | ✓ |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser (D) v. Victor Marx (R) | D+16.8 | Safe D | Phil Weiser (D) 99.4% | Phil Weiser · D+26.5 Called | ✓ |
| South Dakota | Dan Ahlers (D) v. Larry Rhoden (R) | R+16.9 | Safe R | Larry Rhoden (R) 93.1% | Larry Rhoden · R+27.0 Called | ✓ |
| Arkansas | Fredrick Love (D) v. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) | R+18.1 | Safe R | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) 98.8% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders · R+15.3 Called | ✓ |
| Tennessee | Jerri Green (D) v. Marsha Blackburn (R) | R+18.2 | Safe R | Marsha Blackburn (R) 98.9% | Marsha Blackburn · R+2.5 Called | ✓ |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker (D) v. Darren Bailey (R) | D+19.0 | Safe D | JB Pritzker (D) 99.7% | JB Pritzker · D+22.8 Called | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro (D) v. Stacy Garrity (R) | D+20.2 | Safe D | Josh Shapiro (D) 99.9% | Josh Shapiro · D+22.1 Called | ✓ |
| Wyoming | Kenneth R. Casner (D) v. Eric Barlow (R) | R+21.5 | Safe R | Eric Barlow (R) 96.4% | Eric Barlow · R+53.9 Called | ✓ |
| California | Xavier Becerra (D) v. Steve Hilton (R) | D+21.8 | Safe D | Xavier Becerra (D) >99.9% | Xavier Becerra · D+28.8 Called | ✓ |
| Idaho | Terri Pickens (D) v. Brad Little (R) | R+23.5 | Safe R | Brad Little (R) 99.7% | Brad Little · R+24.8 Called | ✓ |
| Hawaii | Josh Green (D) v. Gary Cordery (R) | D+23.7 | Safe D | Josh Green (D) 97.4% | Josh Green · D+45.2 Called | ✓ |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey (D) v. Mike Minogue (R) | D+23.7 | Safe D | Maura Healey (D) >99.9% | Maura Healey · D+27.7 Called | ✓ |
| Maryland | Wes Moore (D) v. Dan Cox (R) | D+28.6 | Safe D | Wes Moore (D) 99.9% | Wes Moore · D+29.6 Called | ✓ |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes (D) v. Aaron Guckian (R) | D+45.9 | Safe D | Helena Foulkes (D) >99.9% | Helena Foulkes · D+44.5 Called | ✓ |
How the grading works
- A result counts only with an official source. Each race is marked “Called” or “Certified” and links to where the result came from. Until then it reads “Pending.”
- Called correctly means the candidate the model gave better than a 50% chance won. A race at exactly 50% is not counted as a call either way.
- Brier score measures the probabilities themselves: the squared gap between the chance the model gave and what happened, averaged over races. Zero is perfect, and always saying 50% scores 0.25.
- Margin miss compares the final projected margin with the official margin between the same two candidates, in points of the total vote.
- Nothing is re-run. The forecast numbers are the frozen Nov. 3 release. The House is graded at the chamber level, and district results will follow once they are certified.
The full record stays online
Every 2026 page stays at its current address, frozen as of the final release. Nothing has been removed.
- Senate forecast
Control odds, the tipping-point seat and every race page, as of Nov. 3.
- How the forecast moved
Every release since September, with each rating change.
- House forecast Beta
All 435 districts and the national seat range.
- Governor forecast Beta
All 36 races from the experimental governor model.
- Poll archive
954 Senate and governor polls, with each one’s weight in the model.
- Methodology
How the models worked, and their known blind spots.