About
About COYNTOSS
Independent 2026 election forecasts built by @achasecoyne: a Senate model, experimental governor and House models, a public poll archive, and a record of every change.
What’s here
- Senate forecast
The chance each party controls the Senate, every race rated, and a page for each of the 35 contests.
- Senate analysis
How the forecast has moved, release by release, with every rating change.
- Governor forecast Experimental
All 36 governor races from a newer model that has not been backtested.
- House forecast Experimental
All 435 districts on the current lines, with seat ranges and national-environment scenarios.
- Polls
The archive of Senate, governor and House polls, with each poll’s weight in the model.
- Texas: Paths to Victory
A scenario calculator for how regional results add up statewide. It is arithmetic, not a forecast.
- Methodology
The inputs, how the models combine them, and their known blind spots.
How a forecast is published
- One frozen snapshot per release. Every number on the site comes from a single identified release, shown with its model date and release date. The model date is when the inputs were last updated; the release date is when the site published them.
- The site never recalculates. Margins, ratings and probabilities are displayed exactly as the model exported them.
- History is never rewritten. Past releases stay in the archive, and a correction is published as a new release linked to the one it fixes.
- Experimental means experimental. The governor and House models have not been backtested as complete forecasts, and their methods may change between releases.
Get in touch
Questions, corrections and poll tips go to @achasecoyne on X.