2028 presidential race

The 2028 race

National primary averages for both parties, betting-market odds and early general-election matchups. No major candidate has declared, so the polls mostly measure name recognition.

Updated Nov. 7, 2026

Primary polls174plus 38 matchup polls

Closest matchupD+0.9Newsom vs. Rubio

Widest matchupR+5.3Ocasio-Cortez vs. Rubio

Latest primary pollSept. 152026

Who leads each primary

Poll averages from COYNTOSS. Kalshi columns are traders’ prices as of Nov. 7, 2026, not a COYNTOSS forecast.

Democrats

Polling leaderKamala Harris27.3% · 13 polls

Betting favoriteJon Ossoff24% on Kalshi

Democrats 2028 primary: poll average and Kalshi odds
Candidate	Polls	30-day	Kalshi
Kamala Harris	27.3%	+0.2	6%
Gavin Newsom	15.9%	0.0	12%
Pete Buttigieg	10.8%	−0.3	5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	8.2%	−0.7	14%
Josh Shapiro	5.7%	+0.1	4%
Mark Kelly	5.2%	−0.1	4%
Jon Ossoff	5.2%	+0.1	24%
Cory Booker	3.7%	0.0	1%
Andy Beshear	3.3%		4%
JB Pritzker	3.1%		—
Gretchen Whitmer	2.3%		1%
Chris Murphy	1.7%		<1%

Republicans

Polling leaderJD Vance38.3% · 15 polls

Betting favoriteJD Vance34% on Kalshi

Republicans 2028 primary: poll average and Kalshi odds
Candidate	Polls	30-day	Kalshi
JD Vance	38.3%	+0.1	34%
Marco Rubio	17.3%	−0.3	20%
Donald Trump Jr.	13.5%	+0.6	—
Ron DeSantis	7.6%	0.0	18%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	5.6%	+0.1	<1%
Nikki Haley	4.6%	+0.1	1%
Ted Cruz	3.5%	+0.1	2%
Greg Abbott	2.6%	+0.2	<1%
Tucker Carlson	2.5%		4%
Rand Paul	2.2%		1%
Vivek Ramaswamy	2.2%		<1%
Josh Hawley	1.7%		1%

Primary polling over time

Daily COYNTOSS averages for the six candidates polled most often in each party.

Democratic primary

Average of 13 national polls · latest ended Sept. 15

Kamala Harris
Gavin Newsom
Pete Buttigieg
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Josh Shapiro
Mark Kelly

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Jan. 2026MarchMayJulySept.Nov.27.3%15.9%10.8%8.2%5.7%5.2%

All 101 Democratic primary polls

Democratic primary polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Harris	Newsom	Buttigieg	Ocasio-Cortez	Shapiro	Kelly	Ossoff	Booker
COYNTOSS averageAs of Nov. 7	As of Nov. 7			27.3%	15.9%	10.8%	8.2%	5.7%	5.2%	5.2%	3.7%
Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectSept. 13–15 · 1,329 LV	Sept. 13–15	1,329 LV	±2.7	26.7%	16.1%	10.3%		5.5%	5.4%	6.4%
Noble Predictive Insights for The Center SquareAug. 12–16 · 930 RV	Aug. 12–16	930 RV	±3.2	28%	14%	12%	7%	5%	5%		3%
Echelon InsightsJune 11–14 · 467 LV	June 11–14	467 LV	±4.5	20%	14%	14%	12%	6%	4%	2%	3%
Noble Predictive Insights for The Center SquareJune 1–4 · 1,224 RV	June 1–4	1,224 RV	±2.8	27%	14%	11%	8%
Focaldata for Financial TimesMay 29–June 1 · 646 LV	May 29–June 1	646 LV	±3.9	37%	17%	8%	7%	3%	5%	2%
HarrisX/Harris for Harvard CAPSMay 29–31 · RV	May 29–31	RV	—	44%	26%		8%	10%
TIPP Insights for Issues & InsightsMay 26–28 · 593 RV	May 26–28	593 RV	±4.0	31%	14%	6%	5%	6%	4%	1%	4%
Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectMay 24–27 · 1,378 LV	May 24–27	1,378 LV	±2.6	28%	17%	11%	9%	6%	6%	2%
Emerson CollegeMay 24–25 · 432 LV	May 24–25	432 LV	±4.7	9.9%	15.9%	17.9%	11.1%	10%
Overton InsightsMay 16–20 · LV	May 16–20	LV	—	9%	13%	16%	12%	8%	4%		7%
McLaughlin & AssociatesMay 12–18 · 459 LV	May 12–18	459 LV	±4.6	28%	16%	9%	7%	6%			5%
Echelon InsightsMay 14–18 · 501 LV	May 14–18	501 LV	±4.4	23%	17%	10%	11%	5%	6%	1%	3%
Lord Ashcroft PollsApril 28–May 17 · 4,203 A	April 28–May 17	4,203 A	±1.5	33%	17%	9%	9%	5%	6%		4%
Lake Research Partners for FairVoteMay 6–11 · 800 LV	May 6–11	800 LV	±3.5	25%	17%	15%	9%	6%	8%		5%
AtlasIntelMay 4–7 · A	May 4–7	A	—	13%	21%	22%	26%	2%			4%
Focaldata for Financial TimesMay 1–5 · 1,339 RV	May 1–5	1,339 RV	±2.7	38%	16.2%	8.9%	8.5%	5.1%	5.6%	1.5%
HarrisX/Harris for Harvard CAPSApril 23–26 · RV	April 23–26	RV	—	50%	22%		8%	9%
VerasightApril 21–23 · 864 A	April 21–23	864 A	±3.3	22%	15%	12%	13%	4%	6%		4%
Echelon InsightsApril 17–20 · 467 LV	April 17–20	467 LV	±4.5	22%	21%	12%	10%	5%	3%	2%	4%
McLaughlin & AssociatesApril 8–15 · 457 LV	April 8–15	457 LV	±4.6	29%	15%	10%	4%	4%			4%
YouGovApril 8–13 · 968 A	April 8–13	968 A	±3.1	24%	12%	9%	9%	4%	5%		2%
HarrisX/Harris for Harvard CAPSMarch 25–26 · RV	March 25–26	RV	—	41%	26%		8%	10%
Yale Youth PollMarch 9–23 · 1,765 RV	March 9–23	1,765 RV	±2.3	20%	19%	14%	13%	4%	7%	1%	2%
Echelon InsightsMarch 12–16 · 475 LV	March 12–16	475 LV	±4.5	21%	19%	9%	11%	5%	4%	1%	4%
FocaldataMarch 6–10 · 672 RV	March 6–10	672 RV	±3.8	39%	22%	8%	11%	6%	4%	2%
McLaughlin & AssociatesMarch 4–9 · 456 LV	March 4–9	456 LV	±4.6	20%	19%	9%	11%	5%			2%
Noble Predictive Insights for The Center SquareMarch 2–5 · 1,152 RV	March 2–5	1,152 RV	±2.9	31%	16%	7%	6%	5%	4%		3%
The Public Sentiment InstituteFeb. 28 · 124 LV	Feb. 28	124 LV	±8.8	15%	29%	9%	6%	7%			5%
Rasmussen ReportsJan. 25–Feb. 27 · 1,155 LV	Jan. 25–Feb. 27	1,155 LV	±2.9	34%	20%	10%	7%	10%			6%
J.L. Partners for DailyMail.comFeb. 25–27 · 578 LV	Feb. 25–27	578 LV	±4.1	23%	19%	10%	7%	5%	5%	1%	5%
HarrisX/Harris for Harvard CAPSFeb. 25–26 · RV	Feb. 25–26	RV	—	39%	24%		14%	10%
Echelon InsightsFeb. 19–23 · 498 LV	Feb. 19–23	498 LV	±4.4	18%	24%	8%	9%	4%	4%	1%	3%
Emerson CollegeFeb. 21–22 · 438 LV	Feb. 21–22	438 LV	±4.7	12.8%	19.6%	15.7%	9.1%	7%
Bowling Green State University/YouGovFeb. 13–18 · 556 RV	Feb. 13–18	556 RV	±4.2	18%	21%	11%	11%	3%	7%		2%
Manhattan InstituteFeb. 6–15 · 1,494 LV	Feb. 6–15	1,494 LV	±2.5	33%	28%		13%	16%
YouGov for Yahoo NewsFeb. 9–12 · 511 RV	Feb. 9–12	511 RV	±4.3	18%	19%	13%	12%		9%		3%
FocaldataFeb. 10 · 441 LV	Feb. 10	441 LV	±4.7	37%	20%	6%	10%	6%	5%	1%
TIPP Insights for Issues & InsightsJan. 27–29 · 527 RV	Jan. 27–29	527 RV	±4.3	38%	13%	5%	2%	4%	3%	2%
HarrisX/Harris Poll for Harvard CAPSJan. 28–29 · 2,000 RV	Jan. 28–29	2,000 RV	±2.2	39%	30%		12%	9%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJan. 21–27 · 455 LV	Jan. 21–27	455 LV	±4.6	27%	14%	8%	7%	4%			3%
FocaldataJan. 23–26 · 735 LV	Jan. 23–26	735 LV	±3.6	40%	22%	9%	9%	4%	6%	1%
Echelon InsightsJan. 22–26 · 466 LV	Jan. 22–26	466 LV	±4.5	21%	27%	8%	9%	3%	4%		3%
Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectJan. 22–24 · 1,346 LV	Jan. 22–24	1,346 LV	±2.7	31.4%	22.2%	11.7%	6.4%	6.1%
YouGovJan. 9–14 · 1,024 A	Jan. 9–14	1,024 A	±3.1	20%	17%	8%	9%	2%	7%		3%
Zogby AnalyticsJan. 2–7 · 374 LV	Jan. 2–7	374 LV	±5.1	30%	21%	8%	11%	6%	7%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec. 12–19 · 1,000 LV	Dec. 12–19	1,000 LV	±3.1	27%	17%	8%	6%	5%			2%
J.L. Partners for DailyMail.comDec. 17–19 · 383 LV	Dec. 17–19	383 LV	±5.0	30%	21%	7%	3%	4%	4%	1%	3%
AtlasIntelDec. 15–19 · 2,315 A	Dec. 15–19	2,315 A	±2.0	7.8%	35.4%	14.5%	16%	6.1%			2.5%
Echelon InsightsDec. 11–15 · 498 LV	Dec. 11–15	498 LV	±4.4	22%	23%	11%	6%	4%	2%		4%
Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectDec. 10–12 · 1,331 LV	Dec. 10–12	1,331 LV	±2.7	31%	20%	10%	6%	6%
McLaughlin & AssociatesNov. 17–24 · 1,000 LV	Nov. 17–24	1,000 LV	±3.1	29%	20%	8%	6%	4%			3%
Echelon InsightsNov. 13–17 · 484 LV	Nov. 13–17	484 LV	±4.5	13%	23%	13%	9%	4%			4%
Yale Youth PollOct. 29–Nov. 11 · 3,426 RV	Oct. 29–Nov. 11	3,426 RV	±1.7	18%	25%	14%	16%	4%
YouGovNov. 6–9 · 1,002 A	Nov. 6–9	1,002 A	±3.1	21%	19%	10%	6%	3%	1%		4%
Morning ConsultNov. 7–9 · 984 RV	Nov. 7–9	984 RV	±3.1	29%	20%	8%	7%
Emerson CollegeNov. 3–4 · 417 RV	Nov. 3–4	417 RV	±4.8	10.3%	24.5%	8.6%	2.8%	2.6%			1.2%
Overton Insights/Targoz Market ResearchOct. 27–29 · 396 RV	Oct. 27–29	396 RV	±4.9	35%	23%	7%	7%	5%			5%
McLaughlin & AssociatesOct. 21–27 · 437 LV	Oct. 21–27	437 LV	±4.7	25%	22%	6%	4%	6%			3%
Echelon InsightsOct. 16–20 · 512 LV	Oct. 16–20	512 LV	±4.3	24%	15%	10%	4%	5%			5%
Noble Predictive Insights for The Center SquareOct. 2–6 · 1,147 RV	Oct. 2–6	1,147 RV	±2.9	33%	21%	7%	8%	4%
LegerSept. 26–29 · 341 A	Sept. 26–29	341 A	±5.3	24%	19%	9%	9%	8%
McLaughlin & AssociatesSept. 17–22 · 429 LV	Sept. 17–22	429 LV	±4.7	21%	22%	7%	5%	4%			4%
Echelon InsightsSept. 18–22 · 1,071 LV	Sept. 18–22	1,071 LV	±3.0	23%	17%	7%	7%	6%			6%
AtlasIntelSept. 12–16 · 1,066 A	Sept. 12–16	1,066 A	±3.0	20.5%	37.4%	12.1%	10.8%	2.1%			2.9%
YouGovSept. 5–8 · 519 A	Sept. 5–8	519 A	±4.3	19%	23%	6%	8%		2%		1%
YouGov for Yahoo NewsAug. 29–Sept. 2 · 250 RV	Aug. 29–Sept. 2	250 RV	±6.2	19%	21%	10%	12%	4%
LegerAug. 29–31 · 328 RV	Aug. 29–31	328 RV	±5.4	30%	24%	8%	10%	2%
McLaughlin & AssociatesAug. 21–26 · 434 LV	Aug. 21–26	434 LV	±4.7	27%	18%	9%	4%	3%			3%
Emerson CollegeAug. 25–26 · 387 RV	Aug. 25–26	387 RV	±5.0	11.4%	25.1%	16%	4.1%	5.3%			2.3%
Morning ConsultAug. 22–24 · RV	Aug. 22–24	RV	—	29%	19%	9%	6%	4%
Echelon InsightsAug. 14–18 · 522 LV	Aug. 14–18	522 LV	±4.3	26%	13%	11%	6%	3%			5%
YouGov for The Times of LondonJuly 18–21 · 622 RV	July 18–21	622 RV	±3.9	21%	11%	14%	10%	3%	1%		4%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJuly 9–14 · 444 LV	July 9–14	444 LV	±4.7	25%	9%	8%	9%	4%			4%
Echelon InsightsJuly 10–14 · 505 LV	July 10–14	505 LV	±4.4	26%	10%	11%	6%	4%			7%
Targoz Market Research for Overton InsightsJune 23–26 · 396 RV	June 23–26	396 RV	±4.9	30%	8%	10%	7%	3%			7%
Emerson CollegeJune 24–25 · 404 LV	June 24–25	404 LV	±4.9	12.5%	11.7%	15.6%	7.1%	7%			3.4%
Morning ConsultJune 13–15 · 1,000 RV	June 13–15	1,000 RV	±3.1	34%	11%	7%	7%	2%		0%	3%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJune 10–15 · 434 LV	June 10–15	434 LV	±4.7	30%	8%	10%	7%	3%			7%
AtlasIntelMay 21–27 · A	May 21–27	A	—	16.6%	7.1%	31.5%	19.4%	4.8%			10.4%
McLaughlin & AssociatesMay 21–26 · 439 LV	May 21–26	439 LV	±4.7	29%	4%	10%	9%	6%			7%
J.L. PartnersMay 13–14 · RV	May 13–14	RV	—	30%	7%	8%	6%	7%
Echelon InsightsMay 8–12 · 471 LV	May 8–12	471 LV	±4.5	32%	5%	10%	8%	2%			6%
McLaughlin & AssociatesApril 22–29 · 442 LV	April 22–29	442 LV	±4.7	30%	8%	6%	8%	4%			7%
YouGov for The Times of LondonApril 21–23 · 440 RV	April 21–23	440 RV	±4.7	28%	8%	9%	7%	5%	1%		8%
Quantus Insights R for TrendingPoliticsApril 21–23 · 700 RV	April 21–23	700 RV	±3.7	30%	7%	13%	14%	5%			13%
Echelon InsightsApril 10–14 · 449 LV	April 10–14	449 LV	±4.6	28%	4%	7%	7%	3%			11%
Data for ProgressApril 9–14 · 745 LV	April 9–14	745 LV	±3.6	18%	8%	14%	12%	5%			12%
AtlasIntelApril 10–14 · A	April 10–14	A	—	24.1%	6.8%	27.7%	15.9%				8.7%
Yale University Institution for Social and Policy StudiesApril 1–3 · RV	April 1–3	RV	—	27.5%	6.4%	14%	21.3%	4.6%
YouGov for The EconomistMarch 30–April 1 · 691 A	March 30–April 1	691 A	±3.7	25%	7%	10%	8%		4%		1%
Targoz Market Research for Overton InsightsMarch 24–28 · 512 RV	March 24–28	512 RV	±4.3	48%	10%		15%	9%
Morning ConsultMarch 14–16 · RV	March 14–16	RV	—	36%	5%	10%	5%	4%			3%
Echelon InsightsMarch 10–13 · 457 LV	March 10–13	457 LV	±4.6	33%	7%	10%	7%	2%			2%
McLaughlin & AssociatesFeb. 11–18 · 418 LV	Feb. 11–18	418 LV	±4.8	36%	4%	8%	3%	3%			3%
Echelon InsightsFeb. 10–13 · 443 LV	Feb. 10–13	443 LV	±4.7	36%	6%	10%	5%	3%			2%
J.L. Partners for DailyMail.comFeb. 2–3 · 500 RV	Feb. 2–3	500 RV	±4.4	30%	8%	8%	5%	5%			3%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJan. 22–27 · 414 LV	Jan. 22–27	414 LV	±4.8	35%	7%	9%	6%	3%			2%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec. 11–16 · 428 LV	Dec. 11–16	428 LV	±4.7	35%	7%	12%	3%	5%			2%
Emerson CollegeNov. 20–22 · 400 A	Nov. 20–22	400 A	±4.9	36.5%	6.6%	3.5%	0.9%	2.6%	0.4%
Echelon InsightsNov. 14–18 · 465 LV	Nov. 14–18	465 LV	±4.5	41%	8%	6%	4%	7%			2%
Morning ConsultNov. 15–17 · 1,012 A	Nov. 15–17	1,012 A	±3.1	43%	8%	9%	4%	5%			2%

Republican primary

Average of 15 national polls · latest ended Sept. 15

JD Vance
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump Jr.
Ron DeSantis
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Nikki Haley

0%10%20%30%40%50%Jan. 2026MarchMayJulySept.Nov.38.3%17.3%13.5%7.6%5.6%4.6%

All 73 Republican primary polls

Republican primary polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Vance	Rubio	Jr.	DeSantis	Jr.	Haley	Cruz	Abbott
COYNTOSS averageAs of Nov. 7	As of Nov. 7			38.3%	17.3%	13.5%	7.6%	5.6%	4.6%	3.5%	2.6%
Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectSept. 13–15 · 1,110 LV	Sept. 13–15	1,110 LV	±2.9	38.3%	15.7%		8.4%	6.3%	5.8%	3.9%
Noble Predictive Insights for The Center SquareAug. 12–16 · 930 RV	Aug. 12–16	930 RV	±3.2	41%	18%		6%		3%	4%	3%
Echelon InsightsJune 11–14 · 466 LV	June 11–14	466 LV	±4.5	42%	15%	7%	6%	3%		2%
Noble Predictive Insights for The Center SquareJune 1–4 · 1,064 RV	June 1–4	1,064 RV	±3.0	36%	17%		7%		3%	5%	2%
Focaldata for Financial TimesMay 29–June 1 · 632 LV	May 29–June 1	632 LV	±3.9	38%	18%	10%	9%	5%		3%
HarrisX/Harris for Harvard CAPSMay 29–31 · RV	May 29–31	RV	—	45%	21%	21%
Focaldata for Financial TimesMay 29 · 667 A	May 29	667 A	±3.8	37%	18%	10%	9%	5%		3%
TIPP Insights for Issues & InsightsMay 26–28 · 561 RV	May 26–28	561 RV	±4.1	29%	12%	19%	6%	4%	2%	3%	1%
Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectMay 24–27 · 1,148 LV	May 24–27	1,148 LV	±2.9	37%	16%		7%	6%	4%	3%
Emerson CollegeMay 24–25 · 432 LV	May 24–25	432 LV	±4.7	35.5%	34.6%		5.4%	3.1%	4.6%	0.7%
Overton InsightsMay 16–20 · LV	May 16–20	LV	—	39%	32%	0%	9%		4%	0%
J.L. Partners for DailyMail.comMay 15–19 · 496 LV	May 15–19	496 LV	±4.4	47%	18%		9%		3%	4%
McLaughlin & AssociatesMay 12–18 · 431 LV	May 12–18	431 LV	±4.7	32%	15%	13%	6%		5%		2%
Echelon InsightsMay 14–18 · 418 LV	May 14–18	418 LV	±4.8	36%	17%	6%	12%	2%		2%
Lord Ashcroft PollsApril 28–May 17 · 3,804 A	April 28–May 17	3,804 A	±1.6	32%	13%	22%	7%	5%		3%
AtlasIntelMay 4–7 · A	May 4–7	A	—	30%	45%	0%	11%				1%
Focaldata for Financial TimesMay 1–5 · 1,291 RV	May 1–5	1,291 RV	±2.7	40%	13.9%	15.2%	7.5%	5.3%		2.8%
HarrisX/Harris for Harvard CAPSApril 23–26 · RV	April 23–26	RV	—	48%	16%	18%	9%
VerasightApril 21–23 · 802 A	April 21–23	802 A	±3.5	37%	16%	13%	7%		4%	2%
Echelon InsightsApril 17–20 · 467 LV	April 17–20	467 LV	±4.5	42%	14%	10%	8%	2%		1%
McLaughlin & AssociatesApril 8–15 · 422 LV	April 8–15	422 LV	±4.8	35%	13%	15%	7%		3%		2%
YouGovApril 8–13 · 825 A	April 8–13	825 A	±3.4	36%	13%	13%	6%	2%	1%	2%
HarrisX/Harris for Harvard CAPSMarch 25–26 · RV	March 25–26	RV	—	42%	17%	20%	10%
Yale Youth PollMarch 9–23 · 1,224 RV	March 9–23	1,224 RV	±2.8	43%	17%	9%	6%	3%	3%	2%	1%
Echelon InsightsMarch 12–16 · 474 LV	March 12–16	474 LV	±4.5	40%	16%	9%	5%	3%	5%	1%
FocaldataMarch 6–10 · 560 RV	March 6–10	560 RV	±4.1	47%	15%	18%	10%	4%		3%
McLaughlin & AssociatesMarch 4–9 · 440 LV	March 4–9	440 LV	±4.7	36%	10%	15%	9%		3%		1%
J.L. Partners for DailyMail.comMarch 2–3 · RV	March 2–3	RV	—	53%	14%		7%		3%	3%
The Public Sentiment InstituteFeb. 28 · 104 LV	Feb. 28	104 LV	±9.6	45%	19%		5%	3%	5%	1%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJan. 21–Feb. 27 · 442 LV	Jan. 21–Feb. 27	442 LV	±4.7	42%	8%	16%	7%		4%	3%
HarrisX/Harris for Harvard CAPSFeb. 25–26 · RV	Feb. 25–26	RV	—	43%	14%	27%	8%
Echelon InsightsFeb. 19–23 · 436 LV	Feb. 19–23	436 LV	±4.7	37%	11%	14%	8%	3%	3%	3%
Emerson CollegeFeb. 21–22 · 454 LV	Feb. 21–22	454 LV	±4.6	51.5%	19.6%		6.1%	3.8%	2.7%	1.4%
Bowling Green State University/YouGovFeb. 13–18 · 463 RV	Feb. 13–18	463 RV	±4.6	51%	15%	8%	9%	2%	2%	2%
FocaldataFeb. 10 · 406 LV	Feb. 10	406 LV	±4.9	49%	8%	13%	7%	6%	3%	2%
TIPP Insights for Issues & InsightsJan. 27–29 · 478 RV	Jan. 27–29	478 RV	±4.5	43%	5%	18%	5%		2%	2%	2%
HarrisX/Harris Poll for Harvard CAPSJan. 28–29 · 2,000 RV	Jan. 28–29	2,000 RV	±2.2	53%	17%	21%
FocaldataJan. 23–26 · 726 LV	Jan. 23–26	726 LV	±3.6	52%	8%	21%	8%		7%	4%
Echelon InsightsJan. 22–26 · 466 LV	Jan. 22–26	466 LV	±4.5	40%	6%	12%	7%	4%	5%	1%
Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectJan. 22–24 · 1,306 LV	Jan. 22–24	1,306 LV	±2.7	46%	6.8%		9.5%	6.8%	5.4%	3.9%
YouGovJan. 9–14 · 743 A	Jan. 9–14	743 A	±3.6	41%	7%	11%	8%	1%	1%	2%
Zogby AnalyticsJan. 2–7 · 340 LV	Jan. 2–7	340 LV	±5.3	58%	8%		9%			3%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec. 12–19 · 1,000 LV	Dec. 12–19	1,000 LV	±3.1	34%	6%	26%	7%		3%		1%
AtlasIntelDec. 15–19 · 2,315 A	Dec. 15–19	2,315 A	±2.0	46.7%	22.6%	1.6%	13.4%				1%
Echelon InsightsDec. 11–15 · 426 LV	Dec. 11–15	426 LV	±4.7	45%	4%	12%	9%	3%	4%	3%
Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectDec. 10–12 · 1,337 LV	Dec. 10–12	1,337 LV	±2.7	45%	7%		8%	6%	5%	5%
McLaughlin & AssociatesNov. 17–24 · 1,000 LV	Nov. 17–24	1,000 LV	±3.1	34%	4%	24%	6%		6%		2%
Echelon InsightsNov. 13–17 · 472 LV	Nov. 13–17	472 LV	±4.5	47%	8%		10%	5%	5%	2%
Yale Youth PollOct. 29–Nov. 11 · 3,426 RV	Oct. 29–Nov. 11	3,426 RV	±1.7	51%	5%	8%	6%	3%	5%
YouGovNov. 6–9 · 785 A	Nov. 6–9	785 A	±3.5	42%	5%	13%	7%	3%	1%	4%
Morning ConsultNov. 7–9 · 936 RV	Nov. 7–9	936 RV	±3.2	42%	3%	19%	7%	3%	5%
Emerson CollegeNov. 3–4 · 420 RV	Nov. 3–4	420 RV	±4.8	22.5%	2.6%		0.7%
Overton Insights/Targoz Market ResearchOct. 27–29 · 444 RV	Oct. 27–29	444 RV	±4.7	34%	7%	22%	12%	8%	5%
Echelon InsightsOct. 16–20 · 400 LV	Oct. 16–20	400 LV	±4.9		6%		10%	5%	6%	2%
Noble Predictive Insights for The Center SquareOct. 2–6 · 1,156 RV	Oct. 2–6	1,156 RV	±2.9		4%	25%	6%		3%	3%
LegerSept. 26–29 · 294 A	Sept. 26–29	294 A	±5.7		6%					6%
McLaughlin & AssociatesSept. 17–22 · 470 LV	Sept. 17–22	470 LV	±4.5		5%		8%		3%		0%
AtlasIntelSept. 12–16 · 1,066 A	Sept. 12–16	1,066 A	±3.0		12.2%	1.2%	16.3%
YouGov for The Times of LondonApril 21–23 · 365 RV	April 21–23	365 RV	±5.1		2%	5%	7%	4%	3%	2%
Echelon InsightsApril 10–14 · 476 LV	April 10–14	476 LV	±4.5		4%		9%	7%	4%	1%
AtlasIntelApril 10–14 · A	April 10–14	A	—		8.6%		8.8%
Yale Youth PollApril 1–3 · RV	April 1–3	RV	—		2.8%		7.5%	8.7%	3.5%	3.2%
YouGov for The EconomistMarch 30–April 1 · 633 A	March 30–April 1	633 A	±3.9		4%	11%	8%	2%	3%	2%
Targoz Market Research for Overton InsightsMarch 24–28 · 536 RV	March 24–28	536 RV	±4.2		6%	31%	13%
Echelon InsightsMarch 10–13 · 450 LV	March 10–13	450 LV	±4.6		4%		7%	7%	7%	5%
McLaughlin & AssociatesFeb. 11–18 · 468 LV	Feb. 11–18	468 LV	±4.5		3%	17%	6%		3%		1%
Echelon InsightsFeb. 10–13 · 472 LV	Feb. 10–13	472 LV	±4.5		4%		10%		8%	4%
J.L. PartnersFeb. 2–3 · 1,000 RV	Feb. 2–3	1,000 RV	±3.1		2%		13%		6%	6%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJan. 22–27 · 453 LV	Jan. 22–27	453 LV	±4.6		3%	21%	8%		2%		2%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec. 11–16 · 463 LV	Dec. 11–16	463 LV	±4.6		2%	21%	9%		4%		1%
Morning ConsultDec. 6–8 · 994 RV	Dec. 6–8	994 RV	±3.1		1%	30%	9%	5%	6%		1%
Emerson CollegeNov. 20–22 · 420 A	Nov. 20–22	420 A	±4.8		0.8%	22.8%	5.2%	1.5%	1.7%	0.5%
Echelon InsightsNov. 14–18 · 475 LV	Nov. 14–18	475 LV	±4.5		5%		8%		9%	5%

If the election were held today

Average of national polls from the past year. Single-poll pairings are shown when both candidates are in their party’s primary average.

Ocasio-CortezAOC41.2

43.7Vance

R+2.59 polls · latest Nov. 5

Newsom43.5

40.0Vance

D+3.59 polls · latest Oct. 14

Harris48.2

43.3Vance

D+4.95 polls · latest Aug. 17

Ocasio-CortezAOC40.3

45.6Rubio

R+5.34 polls · latest Nov. 5

Newsom43.7

42.8Rubio

D+0.94 polls · latest Oct. 4

Harris44.0

45.2Rubio

R+1.13 polls · latest Aug. 17

Buttigieg41.3

38.4Vance

D+2.92 polls · latest Oct. 14

Ossoff49.0

44.0Vance

D+5.01 poll · latest Aug. 17

Ossoff47.0

44.0Rubio

D+3.01 poll · latest Aug. 17

JD Vance vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9 polls

JD Vance vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Ocasio-Cortez	Vance	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			41.2%	43.7%	R+2.5
McLaughlin & AssociatesOct. 30–Nov. 5 · 1,000 LV	Oct. 30–Nov. 5	1,000 LV	±3.1	39%	49%	R+10.0
The Bulwark/Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGovOct. 10–14 · 1,417 A	Oct. 10–14	1,417 A	±2.6	40%	38%	D+2.0
UMass Lowell/YouGovOct. 2–4 · 1,000 LV	Oct. 2–4	1,000 LV	±3.1	45%	42%	D+3.0
Quantus InsightsAug. 26–28 · 1,200 LV	Aug. 26–28	1,200 LV	±2.8	42%	45%	R+3.0
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	44%	46%	R+2.0
ZogbyJuly 1–4 · 1,003 LV	July 1–4	1,003 LV	±3.1	38%	45%	R+7.0
UMass LowellMarch 26–30 · 1,000 RV	March 26–30	1,000 RV	±3.1	33%	36%	R+3.0
FocaldataMarch 6–10 · 1,782 A	March 6–10	1,782 A	±2.3	43%	40%	D+3.0
The Argument/VerasightDec. 5–11 · 1,521 RV	Dec. 5–11	1,521 RV	±2.5	51%	49%	D+2.0

JD Vance vs. Gavin Newsom: 9 polls

JD Vance vs. Gavin Newsom polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Newsom	Vance	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			43.5%	40.0%	D+3.5
The Bulwark/Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGovOct. 10–14 · 1,417 A	Oct. 10–14	1,417 A	±2.6	41%	36%	D+5.0
UMass Lowell/YouGovOct. 2–4 · 1,000 LV	Oct. 2–4	1,000 LV	±3.1	46%	42%	D+4.0
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	49%	44%	D+5.0
ZogbyJuly 1–4 · 1,003 LV	July 1–4	1,003 LV	±3.1	38%	45%	R+7.0
Overton InsightsMay 16–20 · 1,377 V	May 16–20	1,377 V	±2.6	44%	39%	D+5.0
UMass LowellMarch 26–30 · 1,000 RV	March 26–30	1,000 RV	±3.1	33%	36%	R+3.0
ZogbyJan. 1–7 · 891 LV	Jan. 1–7	891 LV	±3.3	41%	44.6%	R+3.6
The Argument/VerasightNov. 10–17 · 1,508 RV	Nov. 10–17	1,508 RV	±2.5	53.6%	46.4%	D+7.2
Morning ConsultNov. 14–16 · 2,201 RV	Nov. 14–16	2,201 RV	±2.1	41%	42%	R+1.0

JD Vance vs. Kamala Harris: 5 polls

JD Vance vs. Kamala Harris polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Harris	Vance	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			48.2%	43.3%	D+4.9
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	49%	45%	D+4.0
ZogbyJuly 1–4 · 1,003 LV	July 1–4	1,003 LV	±3.1	48%	43%	D+5.0
TPSIMay 21 · 893 LV	May 21	893 LV	±3.3	47%	39%	D+8.0
ZogbyJan. 1–7 · 891 LV	Jan. 1–7	891 LV	±3.3	48.5%	42.1%	D+6.4
Morning ConsultNov. 14–16 · 2,201 RV	Nov. 14–16	2,201 RV	±2.1	43%	42%	D+1.0

Marco Rubio vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 4 polls

Marco Rubio vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Ocasio-Cortez	Rubio	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			40.3%	45.6%	R+5.3
McLaughlin & AssociatesOct. 30–Nov. 5 · 1,000 LV	Oct. 30–Nov. 5	1,000 LV	±3.1	38%	48%	R+10.0
UMass/YouGovOct. 2–4 · 1,000 LV	Oct. 2–4	1,000 LV	±3.1	43%	43%	Even
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	43%	48%	R+5.0
ZogbyJuly 1–4 · 1,003 LV	July 1–4	1,003 LV	±3.1	38%	39%	R+1.0

Marco Rubio vs. Gavin Newsom: 4 polls

Marco Rubio vs. Gavin Newsom polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Newsom	Rubio	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			43.7%	42.8%	D+0.9
UMass Lowell/YouGovOct. 2–4 · 1,000 LV	Oct. 2–4	1,000 LV	±3.1	44%	42%	D+2.0
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	48%	46%	D+2.0
ZogbyJuly 1–4 · 1,003 LV	July 1–4	1,003 LV	±3.1	36%	40%	R+4.0
Morning ConsultNov. 14–16 · 2,201 RV	Nov. 14–16	2,201 RV	±2.1	41%	39%	D+2.0

Marco Rubio vs. Kamala Harris: 3 polls

Marco Rubio vs. Kamala Harris polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Harris	Rubio	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			44.0%	45.2%	R+1.2
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	43%	48%	R+5.0
ZogbyJuly 1–4 · 1,003 LV	July 1–4	1,003 LV	±3.1	46%	41%	D+5.0
Morning ConsultNov. 14–16 · 2,201 RV	Nov. 14–16	2,201 RV	±2.1	42%	40%	D+2.0

JD Vance vs. Pete Buttigieg: 2 polls

JD Vance vs. Pete Buttigieg polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Buttigieg	Vance	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			41.3%	38.4%	D+2.9
The Bulwark/Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGovOct. 10–14 · 1,417 A	Oct. 10–14	1,417 A	±2.6	38%	36%	D+2.0
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	49%	44%	D+5.0

JD Vance vs. Jon Ossoff: 1 poll

JD Vance vs. Jon Ossoff polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Ossoff	Vance	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			49.0%	44.0%	D+5.0
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	49%	44%	D+5.0

Marco Rubio vs. Jon Ossoff: 1 poll

Marco Rubio vs. Jon Ossoff polls
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Ossoff	Rubio	Margin
COYNTOSS averagePast year	Past year			47.0%	44.0%	D+3.0
Emerson CollegeAug. 16–17 · 1,000 LV	Aug. 16–17	1,000 LV	±3.1	47%	44%	D+3.0