2026 Beta Forecasts

The House and governor forecasts were labeled beta in 2026. They and the other experimental tools are archived here, unchanged.

Favorite won

Final forecast, Nov. 384%Democrats chance of control

Median forecast238Democratic seats · 80% range 212–268

Result so far247Democratic seats called

80% forecast rangeMedianCalled so far (hatched: could still add)218 for control

Favorite won: Democrats won control. 247 Democratic seats called, 31 uncalled; inside the forecast’s 80% range.

Governor races called33 of 36

Forecast favorite won31 of 33

Average margin miss6.6 pts

2026 results

Race calls from news organizations; preliminary until states certify

54 Dem.2 uncalled · 51 for majority44 Rep.

NBC News/AP, Nov. 5

247 Dem.31 uncalled · 218 for majority157 Rep.

NBC News/AP, Nov. 5

Full tally once every race is called

The experimental 2026 House model: seat distribution, district map and scenarios.

The experimental 2026 governor model for all 36 races.

The Texas scenario explorer built on the 2018–2024 county results.

The Texas early-vote page from the 2026 cycle.

North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania early and mail voting, 2026.

The research Senate model that ran alongside the official forecast.