2026 Senate Forecast

The final COYNTOSS Senate forecast from Nov. 3, 2026, kept unchanged for the record. Nothing here is updated.

Favorite won

Final forecast, Nov. 375%Democrats chance of control

Median forecast52Democratic seats · 80% range 49–55

Result so far54Democratic seats called

80% forecast rangeMedianCalled so far (hatched: could still add)51 for control

Favorite won: Democrats won control. 54 Democratic seats called, 2 uncalled; inside the forecast’s 80% range.

Senate races called33 of 35

Forecast favorite won31 of 33

Average margin miss7.0 pts

Chance of winning the Senate, 2026 cycle

Each day’s published forecast from July 1, 2026 to Election Day, retro-reconstructed days included.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Aug. 2026Sept.Oct.Nov.75.3%24.7%

The COYNTOSS homepage as it stood on Election Day, Nov. 3, 2026: map, odds and closest races.

Every Senate race with final odds, margins, polling averages and fundamentals.

The final forecast next to the results, with the scorecard.

Written analysis from the 2026 cycle.

Every Senate and governor poll the model used.

How the 2026 Senate model worked.