Senate Chance of control Loading the Senate outlook… Senate forecast House Beta Chance of control Loading the House outlook… House forecast Governors Beta Chance of a majority Loading the governor outlook… Governor forecast

2026 SENATE FORECAST

Democrats have the edge in the fight for Senate control.

Updated November 3, 2026 · Senate inputs through November 3, 2026; Governor inputs through November 3, 2026 · statewide polls through November 2, 2026 · Senate simulation from November 3, 2026: 50,000 draws

Expected Democratic caucus52.0

Expected Republicans48.0

See full Senate forecast

Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo 2026 race

Projected two-party margin if the election were held today. Select any loaded state to open its race page. Source: COYNTOSS Senate model.

Five closest Senate races

Full race board

Five closest 2026 Senate races, ordered by projected two-party margin
State	Model margin	Rating	Race details
Loading Senate races…

The Senate forecast, over time

How the Senate forecast has moved

This Senate tracker includes later reconstructions, not forecasts published on the dates shown. Original releases remain archived; the chart identifies reconstructed points.

Senate forecast history

Chance of controlling the Senate, by model release

The closest races

Open House forecast

83.8%Democratic chance

16.2%Republican chance

239.3 expected Democratic seats 195.7 expected Republican seats

Median seats: 238
80% range: 212–268
For majority: 218

Closest districts

D+15 to R+15

District	Margin	Rating
Loading districts…

The closest House races

Solid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid R

All 435 district estimates and the House control simulation use the November 3, 2026 model · polls through November 1, 2026 · run V0.25-R4-20261103-S20261103

Frozen forecast snapshot

Forecast inputs: Senate 2026-11-03 and Governor 2026-11-03 · House model 2026-11-03 · 35 Senate races · 36 governor races · 435 House districts.

Senate control: Democratic caucus 75.27%; Republicans 24.73%. Expected seats: 51.96 Democratic caucus and 48.04 Republican senators; median 52, 10th–90th percentile 49–55. Frozen simulation: November 3, 2026 (50,000 runs; RETRO-20261103-R02).

House control: Democrats 83.79%; Republicans 16.21%. Expected seats: 239.27 Democratic and 195.73 Republican (simulation means); median 238 Democratic, 10th–90th percentile 212–268. Frozen House simulation: November 3, 2026 (10,000 runs; V0.25-R4-20261103-S20261103).

State	Rating	Projected margin
Kansas	Toss-up	D+0.0
Iowa	Toss-up	R+0.7
Texas	Toss-up	D+1.5
Alaska	Toss-up	D+1.8
Ohio	Tilt D	D+2.4
Maine	Tilt D	D+2.6
Nebraska	Lean R	R+4.3
South Carolina	Lean R	R+4.3
Michigan	Lean D	D+4.8
Florida	Likely R	R+6.1

Democrats have the edge in the fight for Senate control.

The interactive 2026 Senate and governor forecast map

Five closest Senate races

The closest races

Democrats are favored to win House control.

The closest House races