COYNTOSS by @achasecoyne

2026 SENATE FORECAST

Senate control is a toss-up.

· Forecast inputs through September 22, 2026 · statewide polls through September 21 · Senate simulation: 50,000 draws, as of September 22

Expected Democratic caucus51.7
Expected Republicans49.3

Five closest races

Full race board
Five closest 2026 Senate races, ordered by projected two-party margin
StateCurrent marginRatingRace details
IowaToss-upR+0.92Race page
TexasToss-upD+1.23Race page
AlaskaToss-upD+1.73Race page
OhioTilt DD+2.02Race page
MaineTilt DD+2.54Race page

Senate control

52 Democratic · 48 Republican (median forecast)

Senate control by projected seats A semicircular chart showing 52 Democratic seats and 48 Republican seats at the median of the current frozen Senate simulation.

The Senate map

Open forecast
Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo 2026 race
Projected two-party margin if the election were held today. Select any loaded state to open its race page. Source: COYNTOSS Senate model.

2026 HOUSE FORECAST · BETA

Democrats are heavily favored to win House control.

Open House forecast
75.1%Democratic chance
25.0%Republican chance
234.7 expected Democratic seats 200.3 expected Republican seats
2026 House district forecast map All 435 House districts colored by the current COYNTOSS rating.
Solid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid R

Loading the 435-district beta forecast…