2026 SENATE FORECAST · v0.53

Democrats have the advantage in the 2026 Senate control forecast.

Updated September 29, 2026 · race estimates and control simulation refreshed; model inputs through September 27, 2026

Expected seats

50,000-run frozen simulation · SIM-20260927-0002 · snapshot from September 29, 2026

Democratic caucus 51.0

Republicans 49.0

Current race estimates

Projected two-party margin if the election were held today.

Model version
v0.53

Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo 2026 race

The map shows race-margin estimates. The control probability above is calculated separately.

CLOSEST RACES

The eight closest races

Ordered by absolute projected margin. Positive numbers favor Democrats; negative numbers favor Republicans.

Eight closest Senate races in the current COYNTOSS forecast
State	Rating	Projected margin	Details
Loading the current Senate race ordering…

See the Senate poll snapshot

RECENT POLLING

Six most recent Senate polls

Each row includes the model effect recorded with the poll.

Six most recent Senate polls and recorded model effects
Date	Race	Pollster	Result	Model effect
Loading recent Senate polls…

METHODOLOGY

Senate methodology

Frozen forecast snapshot

Forecast inputs: Senate 2026-09-27 and Governor 2026-09-26 · House model 2026-09-24 · 35 Senate races · 36 governor races · 435 House districts.

Senate control: Democratic caucus 61.05%; Republicans 38.95%. Expected seats: 51.00 Democratic caucus and 49.00 Republican senators; median 51, 10th–90th percentile 48–54. Frozen simulation: September 29, 2026 (50,000 runs; SIM-20260927-0002).

State	Rating	Projected margin
Iowa	Toss-up	R+0.8
Texas	Toss-up	D+1.4
Alaska	Toss-up	D+1.4
Ohio	Toss-up	D+1.8
Maine	Tilt D	D+2.0
Michigan	Tilt D	D+3.5
Kansas	Likely R	R+5.4
Nebraska	Likely R	R+5.4
South Carolina	Likely R	R+5.4
Minnesota	Likely D	D+5.5
New Hampshire	Likely D	D+5.9
Florida	Likely R	R+7.0
North Carolina	Likely D	D+7.8
Georgia	Likely D	D+8.0
Louisiana	Likely R	R+11.7
Arkansas	Safe R	R+15.6
Virginia	Safe D	D+16.0
New Mexico	Safe D	D+16.2
Mississippi	Safe R	R+16.8
South Dakota	Safe R	R+16.8
New Jersey	Safe D	D+17.1
Montana	Safe R	R+17.2
Kentucky	Safe R	R+18.7
Illinois	Safe D	D+19.6
Colorado	Safe D	D+20.4
Alabama	Safe R	R+22.2
Delaware	Safe D	D+24.2
Oregon	Safe D	D+25.3
Rhode Island	Safe D	D+26.0
Tennessee	Safe R	R+26.9
Oklahoma	Safe R	R+28.3
Idaho	Safe R	R+30.3
Massachusetts	Safe D	D+31.7
West Virginia	Safe R	R+39.3
Wyoming	Safe R	R+40.2

Current Senate control estimate

Expected seats

Current race estimates

The eight closest races

Six most recent Senate polls